I have done my own studies on MACD, moving averages and various other technical indicators. Basically, I wrote a computer program that used genetic algorithms to test various parameters to the technical indicators and then back tested them against historical data to see how well they actually perform. My own conclusion was very mixed. While in down or range bound markets you will usually do better with technical indicators, it is often only by a small margin. On the other hand, if you use the same indicators that worked in say a bear market in a bull market you will underperform. Basically it’s all a bunch of BS since you always need another piece of information that you can’t know. That is, you need to know whether it is a bull / bear / range bound market ahead of time. There is no one group of technical indicators that will outperform over an extended time period. Look around on the internet and you can find similar studies.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

Here are some other links that might interest you:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Enjoy!

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/06/04/condoholic/

http://www.vancouversun.com/Business/Court+rules+rescind+purchase+million+condo/1659340/story.html

Completely off-topic, but it’s now June. Does anyone know if they’ve broken ground yet on the River Landing project? (they were supposed to start in May if I’m not mistaken)

You’re right it is sometimes hard to get the correct tone of a post. I kinda get stuck with one posts tone and carry it to another. I will go pop a valium.

Crikey,

Can you please provide a link for mish blog & calculated risk. I’d like to check them out.

Looking at statscan jobs numbers I see population has increased in all provinces. I suspect the word is out internationally Canada is fairing better than other places. But in those numbers there is no distiction of permanant residents. Are immigrants coming here working on a visa with intentions of sending money earned back to their home country?

Someways it is good, they are seemingly increasing demand for homes, and doing the jobs canadians don’t want to do.

The downfall is they are not keeping their earnings in Canada. They are supporting extended family members in their homeland.

I would suggest the people moving here are either moving back home from BC and Alb or moving here because they need a job(Ontario). The majority of people from Ontario are probably coming from places like Windsor where housing has been absolutely slaughtered. I don’t think they would have much equity.

I do believe the increase of people moving may put pressure on rentals but not house prices.

This is a typical comparison, and generally inaccurate (not that I’m a fan of Calgary, necessarily, but just to be fair…) Take a $275k house vs. $344k house (+25% higher). Over 35 years @ 3.5% you get monthly payments of $1,132 (SK) and $1,415 (AB) respectively, which is a difference of only $283. The difference in income tax offsets this by about $100, so you’re down to $183. So at a 25% tax rate, you really only need about $230-$250 more in gross income every month, or about $3k per year. On an average household income of $60k (I’ve used less), this means you only need to earn 5% more. I’m not going to account for cost of living, as they’re relatively comparable, and what’s gained by no PST and cheaper fuel costs is probably offset elsewhere.

So ultimately, can you earn 5%+ more in Alberta than you can in Saskatchewan? Probably.

“Wow. Where are they all going to live? What affect could this possibly have on housing and the rental market?” 70% in Regina and Saskatoon, apparently (not sure of the exact breakdown between cities). Exactly half of the categories don’t lend themselves well towards increasing housing sales, though: Family members (sponsored by existing residents), Farm Operators (rural), Hospitality Sector (low-income) and Student (already here, debt). The rental market is an entirely different matter altogether (probably lower vacancies).

But it also comes down to affordability, and it’s still widely out-of-reach for most at any of the average selling prices over the past 5 months.

Does this mean you’ll be raising your rental rates Mark…?

“We can’t fix the weather but housing can become affordable again.”

Global warming may yet save my rental venture:)

We also have to keep in mind that although housing prices seem to many here not to be affordable anymore, unless you are moving from Manitoba, Quebec, or Fredricton, they are cheaper. (I know the weekly wages may be lower, though funny, weekly wages are higher here than Vancouver!)

Average prices April 2009

Vancouver -565,000

Calgary – 371,000

Edmonton – 312,000

Toronto – 385,000

Ottawa – 298,000

even Hamilton – 286,000

Winnipeg is 212,000 and Quebec and parts of Maritimes are fairly cheap.

But with prices a full 25 percent higher even in a place like Calgary, I’m guessing their weekly wages aren’t 25 percent higher than Saskatoons.

So for someone selling in Ontario, BC, or Alberta, they’ll likely be looking at a cheaper home then they were carrying before.

I think you’re right, Mark. Hubby is often on trips trying to woo people to our fair province, and anecdotally there is a huge amount of interest. Interestingly, hiring has not slowed down for them at all (health care).

this company has excellent management if you are a bond holder but for a worker, management seems almost like communism. But maybe Marx was right. I hope this rumor is false.

There are many factors to why housing is doing so well right now. Low interest rates, high rental rates( seen kijji lately?) but there is also a ton of confidence for this province overall. More people moving here and less people moving away. I have always said that this is the place to be with all our resources and the right government and in the future I am very optimistic for the province.

The benefits of inexpensive housing are huge. With our economy and the bright future, there should be literally thousands from Ontario coming here. But if anyone every reads the blogs, it is always the same thing. “Housing is too expensive here and the cold winters.” We can’t fix the weather but housing can become affordable again. It is well on its way.

I do enjoy your comments Mark, you keep the blog balanced.

Wow. Where are they all going to live? What affect could this possibly have on housing and the rental market?

This story from the June 3 SP, says we can expect 10,000 international immigrants to settle in Saskatchewan in the next 12-18 months. Applications are up 53%.

George, corportate greed, really, or good management?

http://tinyurl.com/pcl7rw

SK and MB, however… appear to have added employment:

“Manitoba and Saskatchewan added employment in May with gains of 3,900 and 3,100 respectively. Both provinces had an unemployment rate of 4.9%, the lowest in the country, and are the only two provinces with an increase in employment since last October.”

Go Sask!

anything credible to that rumour?

Speaking of rumors, I have heard of a BIG North American company will be downsizing if the economy does not pick in the next few months. And this is even though they made a sizable profit in Q1 2009. Corporate greed at its finest I may add. It would affect Saskatoon and no, it is not a lowpaying company like Walmart.

Lol. Google alerts, or are you actually that close?

mish’s blog is one of my favorites. He is a big advocate of deflation. Calculated risk is another good one.

“Jason,

“many of us have been calling for lows in the $200k-range”

I know you’ve suggested it, and jrochest has as well but I think two is still “a couple of us,” not “many of us.” ”

I think Crikey and some of the other grizzlies around here were saying the same thing…

And I am surprised at the price stability: interest rates have something to do with it, and the spring market — but I expected much, much higher inventory and much greater pressure on prices.

But inventory is still very high, and sales aren’t great: it’s just that last April was when sales fell off a cliff.

Keep an eye on those bond yields. If the supply keeps on coming like it is, the bond vigilantes are going to sell sell sell. Result = A continuation of increasing rates, killing the mortgage market in the process. I’m not a doom and gloomer, but this stuff that is coming down the pike is serious business.

I don’t know about Canada, but in the US, the mortgage market is in complete chaos because of the events of th past two weeks. And once the auctions start next week, it will probably get worse. Again, watch those yields (US 10-year yield especially).

In calgary we’ve seen a surge in prices lately and surprisingly lots of sold signs. I strongly feel everything is way overpriced but it seems sentiment and low interest rates are stronger than the other factors right now. In fact, i told my friends not to buy right now and they might end up hating me as prices keep ticking up. This is why i’m surprised to hear so many people are saying Saskatoon is in a bit of a lul right now.

Crikey, I think 15% is probably more realistic (possibly 10% for houses in the “demand” price points; probably 20% for higher-end homes). Yes, the ‘captcha’ filter seems to have developed some NC-17 tendencies…