The Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® (SRAR) released the residential real estate statistics for May 2009 today, accompanied by this release.
Residential home sales remained steady in the month of May. Saskatoon REALTORS® sold 372 homes in the month of May that number up 2% from May 2008 when 363 homes were sold. Year to date 1,428 homes have sold, that number down 22% from 2008 when 1832 homes sold. May’s number indicates somewhat of a recovery in market place activity. Dollar volume for May was $103,965,000 down 5% from 2008 when $109,610,000.00 of real estate was sold.
Listing inventory continued to correct last month, REALTORS® listing 721 properties down 29% from May 2008 when 1014 properties were placed on the market. Year to date 3156 homes have been listed for sale that number down 7% from 2008 when 3406 properties were placed on the market. Home buyers had 1532 homes to select from at the end of May.
The average selling price was up from years prior to 2008.
• 2009 – $279,477.00
• 2008 – $301,957.00
• 2007 – $233,404.00
• 2006 – $162,489.00
• 2005 – $145,548.00
• 2004 – $135,532.00
Sales activity in communities around Saskatoon remained steady. REALTORS® sold 97 properties, that number up 13% from 2008 when 86 homes were sold. The average price is up slightly at $238,904.00, as compared to 2008 when the average was $233,906.00. Year to date the average price is up 5% at $241,080.00.
Summer sales and listing activity is expected to remain similar as the market continues to correct with excess inventory moving through the system. Saskatoon has been somewhat effected by the global recession but all indicators point to the local market remaining steady in the next few months.
Drop by early next week when our “Closer look at the Saskatoon real estate statistics for May” will be posted. It includes a more extensive overview of unit sales, prices and active listings of single-family homes and condominiums.
I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.
Follow our daily updates on Twitter @Norm_Fisher.
Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate
![[del.icio.us]](http://www.teamfisher.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/delicious.png)
![[Digg]](http://www.teamfisher.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/digg.png)
![[Facebook]](http://www.teamfisher.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/facebook.png)
![[LinkedIn]](http://www.teamfisher.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/linkedin.png)
![[Twitter]](http://www.teamfisher.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/twitter.png)
![[Email]](http://www.teamfisher.com/wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/email.png)
{ 58 comments… read them below or add one }
Well, slap me silly, I would have bet the farm we would not have seen even one month of yoy sales increases in 2009 over 2008 last fall!
Lower prices by about 10% and super low interest rates have allowed more people back into the game.
Despite all the doom and gloom, I believe there is a ton of confidence ( could be good or bad)in this market now and into the future. But there are few hurdles ( but big ones) to clear. Off course prices dropping to more affordable levels. Inventory will have to clear up. Rental prices ( the biggest bubble we have seen) will have to come down as well. And interest rates will have to stay low.
Great job as always, Norm and team
George, yes, I can honestly say that’s a bet I’d have taken (and lost) as well. With current rates it’s probably closer to a 25% equivalent savings (-10% or so on the purchase price and another 12-15% on the difference in interest rates on the monthly payment). I would suspect many first-time homebuyers looked at this as a fleeting opportunity to qualify and lock-in these kind of low rates (even if only for 5-10 years). Interesting that RBC raise their 5, 7 and 10-year rates by 20bps tomorrow… Good news for sellers who missed out on an opportunity last year, though — they probably only saw a 5-10% difference from the peak.
I’m still not convinced this is a “normal” market, and I do think that first-time buyers and unusually low interest rates are having more of an effect in keeping prices and demand artificially high than people realize.
Oh well, at least the weather has finally improved… just in time to be the main course at the bear’s BBQ.
Story from today’s newspaper
“Our unit sales are actually up just a hair from last year, which was a resounding year,” said Harry Janzen, executive officer for SRAR.
Funny, last May doesn’t look all that ‘resounding” to me.
There seems to be a real effort to crank this market up both from SRAR and from the Star Phoenix.
http://www.thestarphoenix.com/Business/Sales+existing+homes+SRAR/1653705/story.html
Norm you mod’d my post!
(and jason’s)
No matter how the media and SRAR wish to spin the data. Housing prices will continue to remain bearish according to my graphs of SRAR data.
I’d like to be bullish too; however the MACD graph is not showing any bull market in Stoon.
Graphs open for viewing at: http://relistings.drakeventure.com/relistings/?p=64
Steven, thanks for the graphs. What average price are you projecting the MACD will cross the signal line (without specifying a timeframe)?
Jack Sprat, there certainly does… “”When we start going up again a little bit in price, there will be a lot of buyers pre-qualified and ready to rock and roll.” Well, we’ll see what happens if the BoC hikes rates on Thursday…
L.oki,
I know how much “meaningful” discussion means to the two of you and thought you were probably both regretting having such a meaningless conversation.
Steven,
I’m starting to think about sending you an invoice.
I’m with you though. I would love to be feeling some excitement about the market but I just don’t think it’s there. While it hasn’t completely fallen off of a cliff, units are 10% off of the five-year average and listings are still very high. The unit sale graph suggests that it’s downhill from here.
All 5 major banks in Canada raised their 5+ year fixed mortgage rates by 0.2% This is due to the fact that bond yields in the US and Canada are on the rise. I expect another round of increases this summer.
This puts prospective mortgage holders in a tough spot. Do they take a 2.85% 5 year closed variable and switch to a fixed next year when BOC starts raising the rate? Or do they grab a fixed rate today before the banks fixed rate increases takes effect later this week.
If they elect to take a variable they better be prepared to pay a much higher monthly payment in the future. If you want to see what happens if you wait and switch click my name to see the analysis.
If you want to see an interactive historical mortgage rate graph just click my name. Be patient – it takes a few seconds to load.
Been away for quite a while.
Stopped worrying about the housing market. Found a great character apartment downtown. 9 ft. ceilings, hardwood floors, fireplace, windows on 3 sides, foot-high baseboards, walking distance to work, $645 a month.
I’m not moving until I have kids and this place gets too small
Renters, look for old buildings and get on their waiting lists – there are deals around.
I don’t think housing will “correct” much here – although I do think it’s over valued. I spent a week in Vancouver (actually Richmond) last month… there are reasons why housing is expensive there!!
guy,
Nice to hear from you. Glad that you’ve found an affordable place to live. It sounds nice.
Roger,
Thank you. Cool charts.
While I still contend that rates will stay “low” for some time, there are the ones who could throw a monkey wrench into the overall scheme of things.
Bond Vigilantes Confront Obama as Housing Falters http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akW9GQw.X9KM&refer=worldwide
“Fifteen years after forcing Bill Clinton to abandon his own stimulus plans, the so-called bond vigilantes are punishing Barack Obama for quadrupling the budget shortfall to $1.85 trillion. By driving up yields on U.S. debt, they are also threatening to derail Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to cut borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.”
Thanks for thinking of us Norm!
Roger, not exactly the most ideal scenarios, are they?
George, this is exactly the scenario I’ve been suggesting, ie: bondholders are going to force interest rates higher (regardless of what the Fed or BoC may want to happen).
Saskatoon residential real estate sales on par with May 2008 in May 2009: SRAR
BUT
Down 22% so far this year!
Buyers beware! You deserve a better deal!
You can’t just look at last year alone caption “obvious”. We are still showing a upward trend over 5, 10, 20 years.
It will be very interesting to see how this increase in mortgage rates affects the real estate situation here, especially while moving out of the seasonally busy period.
For those of us watching from Regina, the stats for may linked below.
Highlights – 2009 May sales beat 2008 May sales. Average price in May – 266,000 – up 9 percent over 2008 and first time it has ever clocked over 260,000. Norm, your prediction that Regina would surpass S’toon this year in average price may yet come true!
http://www.leaderpost.com/business/Home+sales+Regina+stay+strong/1655902/story.html
TD Bank Expects Deficit to Double
http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2009/06/02/9653006-cp.html
“Canada is headed for a series of shocking federal deficits that will put the federal government more than $172 billion in the hole over the next five years, the TD Bank says in a new analysis…” “‘So far those who have been more negative have been more accurate,’ said McCallum, former chief economist of the Royal Bank…” “The increase means the national debt will grow to $611 billion by 2012-2013 and more than wipe out nearly 15 years of debt reduction.”
Greater Fool
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/06/02/the-spoiler/
“If you think this is just Ottawa’s problem, think again… the three consequences of this will be higher taxes, higher inflation and higher interest rates. With Ottawa borrowing $1 billion a week, this puts pressure on the bond markets and guarantees a run-up in the cost of mortgages, LOCs and business loans. The implications for the housing market – where prices have still not corrected enough to sustain enduring sales – should be obvious.”
Jason,
For your question about the MACD crossing the signal line: $200,000 would be the projected average price.
In theory, the MACD could cross now. But who is gonna pay a beefed up average price of $375,000. Sellers could try and roast home buyers in 2011 at $300,000 to do it.
The price to achieve crossing does come down over time to more plausible numbers. $230,000 would get the market stewing, and $200,000 is a realistic price that could bring back the sizzle.
Norm,
Your invoice is for 2cents? That’s all I got for you.
Steven,
If the MACD analysis is accurate like you suggest, then why don’t we all quit our day jobs and invest in stocks and real estate? We can use the MACD to make millions of dollars and with our new found riches we can put an end to world hunger………
L.oki, well… I believe the MACD is indicating (and Steven, please jump in here if I’m wrong), that you’d be looking to potentially short the market and that housing wouldn’t necessarily be a solid investment (emphasis on “investment”) until it falls back into the $200-$230k range. Troll: +1 (Norm, feel free to edit as desired).
And just a note to all those bulls out there that seem ‘highly opinionated’… we ‘bears’ are just as entitled to express our opinions, if for a variety of different reasons. However, for the most part, we’re not escalating things into the ‘personal attack’ column, and by doing so, you’re not really lending a lot of credibility to your arguments (but rather, detracting from them).
Steven, many of us have been calling for lows in the $200k-range, so this tracks with a lot of our estimates. I don’t think that there’s any doubt for a lot of us that we’ll see housing prices in this territory again – the only question up in the air (and hard to pin down) is when.
“personal attack”?…hardly…don’t get too attached to your posts (or his)
My “highly opinionated” point is (and yes, it is a valid one):
We can’t go flaunting this MACD around like it is the truth. At the end of the day it is no better than most of the other ‘indicators’ or tools used to track the market (or analysts for that matter).
If a indicator, such as the MACD, was accurate and that simple we would all be rich.
——
Norm, have you heard the story about the pot calling the kettle black?
L.oki, I don’t recall the words “truth” being used with respect to the MACD. I believe this was merely expressed as an opinion with some data to substantiate it. As to your point about accuracy, we’re been discussing a timeframe as to when this might occur (and to what extent), so I’d hardly call an open-ended projection of $200-$230k ‘accurate’. Like I said, you’re really not making an effective argument or encouraging any kind of dialog with these inane rants (the one about world hunger was just bizarre). There’s “highly opinionated” and “highly agitated”, and you’re clearly blurring the line… Still trolling (+1).
Look, if you think housing prices are sustainable, and we’ve returned to a “normal” market, by all means, I would love to be swayed by your arguments.
I do not call myself a technical analysis expert but one thing i learned in my studies is to never use only one indictator to make your analysis. Therefore you need to use the MACD along with moving averages and other momentum indicators. The problem with using these on Saskatoon data is that you have relatively low volume which allows for skewing of data. If you were to do use this in a bigger city like Vancouver you would get much more meaningful data. It’s like doing a scientific experiment but on whether aspartame causes cancer but only on 2 rats and forming a conclusion.
L.oki is correct in some ways. If technical analysis was always correct , we wouldn’t be in our day jobs OR nobody would ever make money on any market.
Rent, home sales and interest rates. Rental rates have softened a bit, but on average are still very high. Home prices have dipped a little but are still expensive. Interest rates have crashed and are considered to be about as cheap as they can get.
It’s kind of the perfect storm for the renter/saver/and possible future home buyer.
I don’t know, Rick… prices on certain properties in areas we’re keeping an eye on have dropped more than what I’d define as “a little”. The big questions are: how much more might they drop, and what will the cost of financing be at that point?
I thought I’d link to this in case you hadn’t seen it, George. Don’t ask me why, but I thought of you when I saw it:
http://tinyurl.com/r3lyqu
Jason and L.oki,
Pleeeease.
Lois,
“It will be very interesting to see how this increase in mortgage rates affects the real estate situation here, especially while moving out of the seasonally busy period.”
I agree that increasing interest rates will have a dampening effect, just as I’m certain that low rates have effectively propped the market up. It will take some time though. Even with the recent increases they are so low it’s ridiculous. I’m thinking we’ll see a fairly strong June/July as people who are pre-approved make house hunting a priority before their rate hold expires. We may even put a little dent in the inventory.
Crikey,
“prices on certain properties in areas we’re keeping an eye on have dropped more than what I’d define as “a little”. ”
I met with someone last week who paid $260K for their home last August. Something very similar has been available for weeks at $205. My suggestion to them was $199,900. Ouch.
Jason,
“many of us have been calling for lows in the $200k-range”
I know you’ve suggested it, and jrochest has as well but I think two is still “a couple of us,” not “many of us.”
“I’m thinking we’ll see a fairly strong June/July as people who are pre-approved make house hunting a priority before their rate hold expires. We may even put a little dent in the inventory.”
I’m thinking the same thing.
I guess the flipside of it is that anybody wnating to sell a property in the next year or two better get it on the market now, else risk losing even more as the market cools.
L.oki,
I in no way suggest MACD is accurate, correct, or true. But it is better than going with a gut feeling. MACD is like radar, I really cannot see any object with my eyes. But I do have an idea of where it is, its direction, and am ASSUMING it’s an airplane.
Vinny,
I’ve been generous with providing the MACD indicator to help support the bears. If you wish to dispute my opinion with another indicator. Stop talking about how you have studied and start graphing. But then again it sound like you’ve not experienced the power of the MACD because of analysis paralysis of needing another indicator. Fibonnacci is pretty easy for a novice to calculate. How about providing it! Pick something and share it.
Bank of Canada Maintains Overnight Rates
http://bankofcanada.ca/en/fixed-dates/2009/rate_040609.html
One caveat: “Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target.”
Crikey, I’d agree that some homes have dropped by more than the average of ~10%. Have you noticed some areas more than others?
Norm, with Steven’s permission, that’s three. With L.oki, it’s four…
(possibly a few more lurkers out there…) With respect to that potential listing, at $200k that’s a 23% reduction right there (if they were able to sell at lis)t. If they received $10k under list, after real estate commissions and closing costs they’d have lost almost 30% or around $70k. I’m guessing they’re having second thoughts about selling now…
Anyone see the most recent issue of Maclean’s? Saskatoon is Canada’s 3rd smartest city. I think we have been number 1 or 2 for violent crime as well. At least no one will appear on Canada’s dumbest criminals!
Just curious on the groups’ opinion about Evergreen, a new east side neighbourhood in the works. I can see it being very desirable as a green neighbourhood but according to the Verb(local newspaper) 65% will be high density housing. Is saskatoon ready for this? In previous discussions there seemed to be a lot of condo/multi family resentment.
Also, with Willowgrove, Stonebridge, Hampton Villiage still going, Rosewood up, will there be demand for this when lots become available in 2010?
Jedi, Evergreen seems to be an interesting project. There’s a much higher portion of green space, but as you point out, the majority of it will be high density housing. I think that depending on the price, it may be desirable, although there is still a ton of development going on (and potential for) in the neighborhoods you mention. It will have the green/trendy factors going for it; still a few years away at best.
Got a second indicator (12 month EMA) posted at http://relistings.drakeventure.com/relistings/?p=71
that says prices have hit a plateau.
Any requests for a third?
Jason,
You have my permission.
Jedi,
What sells is highly dependant on what gets put on the lot. I’m thinking of getting bullish with houses with post-war designs. Designs that are very simplistic in providing for basic living needs yet upgradable. The price of houses needs to get to a selling price of $200K. Only way I see to do that is take away the garage, fancy kitchens with granite countertops, and put in mid-effiency windows and furnaces.
No frill houses is the future I see that will fill the lots.
“Have you noticed some areas more than others?”
That’s tough to say, Jason, as we’ve got certain areas in mind, and I haven’t really been paying attention to the others. Completely anecdotally, I’d say many properties in our price range are easily 15% less than this time last year. Quality, well-maintained homes are holding value better, of course.
captcha= mangling mother. Now that’s just scary.
Steven, I’m not sure it would necessarily matter how many different indicators you would post, there’s still a lot of “denial” (and not the river in Egypt). I think it’s clear that prices peaked last year, and the only factors really keeping the average selling price artificially high) are: a) unrealistically low mortgage rates allowing many first-time homebuyers to buy (who may not have qualified otherwise), b) the fact that we’re selling more houses than condominiums (which tend to be more expensive) and c) limited inventory in certain price points which (combined with low interest rates) are probably pushing some buyers into more expensive properties.
Crikey, I think 15% is probably more realistic (possibly 10% for houses in the “demand” price points; probably 20% for higher-end homes). Yes, the ‘captcha’ filter seems to have developed some NC-17 tendencies…
Steven, you have chill out a bit. lol . I’m actually a bear but Jason was asking for clarification on MACD. I guess it’s hard to hear tone of voice on a forum but i wasn’t disputing your MACD. I was simply pointing out you should never make trades on just one indicator, especially not with stocks. But I do agree it is much better than just going with gut feeling.
In calgary we’ve seen a surge in prices lately and surprisingly lots of sold signs. I strongly feel everything is way overpriced but it seems sentiment and low interest rates are stronger than the other factors right now. In fact, i told my friends not to buy right now and they might end up hating me as prices keep ticking up. This is why i’m surprised to hear so many people are saying Saskatoon is in a bit of a lul right now.
The Federal Reserve has done a brilliant job of pumping money to the primary dealers to support the stock market and commodities and the media is running with it with all this optimism. Unfortunately, trouble lingers in the background.
Keep an eye on those bond yields. If the supply keeps on coming like it is, the bond vigilantes are going to sell sell sell. Result = A continuation of increasing rates, killing the mortgage market in the process. I’m not a doom and gloomer, but this stuff that is coming down the pike is serious business.
I don’t know about Canada, but in the US, the mortgage market is in complete chaos because of the events of th past two weeks. And once the auctions start next week, it will probably get worse. Again, watch those yields (US 10-year yield especially).
Hey, someone said my name…
“Jason,
“many of us have been calling for lows in the $200k-range”
I know you’ve suggested it, and jrochest has as well but I think two is still “a couple of us,” not “many of us.”
”
I think Crikey and some of the other grizzlies around here were saying the same thing…
And I am surprised at the price stability: interest rates have something to do with it, and the spring market — but I expected much, much higher inventory and much greater pressure on prices.
But inventory is still very high, and sales aren’t great: it’s just that last April was when sales fell off a cliff.
Crikey,
mish’s blog is one of my favorites. He is a big advocate of deflation. Calculated risk is another good one.
Rumour: Nuclear Plant will go north of Beatty – big transmission lines presently going through there from Nipawin and EB Campbell.
“Hey, someone said my name…”
Lol. Google alerts, or are you actually that close?
Daniel,
anything credible to that rumour?
Speaking of rumors, I have heard of a BIG North American company will be downsizing if the economy does not pick in the next few months. And this is even though they made a sizable profit in Q1 2009. Corporate greed at its finest I may add. It would affect Saskatoon and no, it is not a lowpaying company like Walmart.
Job loss numbers nationally are looking nasty (an 11-year high), which is not unexpected given the state of the auto industry:
http://tinyurl.com/pcl7rw
SK and MB, however… appear to have added employment:
“Manitoba and Saskatchewan added employment in May with gains of 3,900 and 3,100 respectively. Both provinces had an unemployment rate of 4.9%, the lowest in the country, and are the only two provinces with an increase in employment since last October.”
Go Sask!
On the job numbers, I know a few on here like to think of all the housing demand this spring as being artificially propped up by low interest rates, but clearly Sask. is likely still attracting more people than are leaving. In addition, someone in government told me the other day that 4000 new international immigrants arrived in Sask over the past several months, all with secured jobs, numbers he say that haven’t been taken into account by CMHC etc, in their predictions for housing, rents etc.
George, corportate greed, really, or good management?
Interesting Mark.
This story from the June 3 SP, says we can expect 10,000 international immigrants to settle in Saskatchewan in the next 12-18 months. Applications are up 53%.
“In this story from the June 3 SP, says we can expect 10,000 international immigrants to settle in Saskatchewan in the next 12-18 months. Applications are up 53%”
Wow. Where are they all going to live? What affect could this possibly have on housing and the rental market?
Mark,
this company has excellent management if you are a bond holder but for a worker, management seems almost like communism. But maybe Marx was right. I hope this rumor is false.
There are many factors to why housing is doing so well right now. Low interest rates, high rental rates( seen kijji lately?) but there is also a ton of confidence for this province overall. More people moving here and less people moving away. I have always said that this is the place to be with all our resources and the right government and in the future I am very optimistic for the province.
The benefits of inexpensive housing are huge. With our economy and the bright future, there should be literally thousands from Ontario coming here. But if anyone every reads the blogs, it is always the same thing. “Housing is too expensive here and the cold winters.” We can’t fix the weather but housing can become affordable again. It is well on its way.
I do enjoy your comments Mark, you keep the blog balanced.
“clearly Sask. is likely still attracting more people than are leaving”
I think you’re right, Mark. Hubby is often on trips trying to woo people to our fair province, and anecdotally there is a huge amount of interest. Interestingly, hiring has not slowed down for them at all (health care).
Thanks George.
“We can’t fix the weather but housing can become affordable again.”
Global warming may yet save my rental venture:)
We also have to keep in mind that although housing prices seem to many here not to be affordable anymore, unless you are moving from Manitoba, Quebec, or Fredricton, they are cheaper. (I know the weekly wages may be lower, though funny, weekly wages are higher here than Vancouver!)
Average prices April 2009
Vancouver -565,000
Calgary – 371,000
Edmonton – 312,000
Toronto – 385,000
Ottawa – 298,000
even Hamilton – 286,000
Winnipeg is 212,000 and Quebec and parts of Maritimes are fairly cheap.
But with prices a full 25 percent higher even in a place like Calgary, I’m guessing their weekly wages aren’t 25 percent higher than Saskatoons.
So for someone selling in Ontario, BC, or Alberta, they’ll likely be looking at a cheaper home then they were carrying before.
Mark, I think 4,000 “people” is probably more accurate, considering there were only 2,914 nominees (7,500 people) in 2008 and they were projecting 3,400 nominees (10,000 people) in 2009. So considering we’re almost halfway through the year, I’m think it’s more like 1,000-1,500 new jobs + families/dependents.
“Wow. Where are they all going to live? What affect could this possibly have on housing and the rental market?” 70% in Regina and Saskatoon, apparently (not sure of the exact breakdown between cities). Exactly half of the categories don’t lend themselves well towards increasing housing sales, though: Family members (sponsored by existing residents), Farm Operators (rural), Hospitality Sector (low-income) and Student (already here, debt). The rental market is an entirely different matter altogether (probably lower vacancies).
But it also comes down to affordability, and it’s still widely out-of-reach for most at any of the average selling prices over the past 5 months.
Does this mean you’ll be raising your rental rates Mark…?
You could be right Jason, the four thousand people likely includes family members, but still, that’s a lot of new households.
Mark, “But with prices a full 25 percent higher even in a place like Calgary, I’m guessing their weekly wages aren’t 25 percent higher than Saskatoons.”
This is a typical comparison, and generally inaccurate (not that I’m a fan of Calgary, necessarily, but just to be fair…) Take a $275k house vs. $344k house (+25% higher). Over 35 years @ 3.5% you get monthly payments of $1,132 (SK) and $1,415 (AB) respectively, which is a difference of only $283. The difference in income tax offsets this by about $100, so you’re down to $183. So at a 25% tax rate, you really only need about $230-$250 more in gross income every month, or about $3k per year. On an average household income of $60k (I’ve used less), this means you only need to earn 5% more. I’m not going to account for cost of living, as they’re relatively comparable, and what’s gained by no PST and cheaper fuel costs is probably offset elsewhere.
So ultimately, can you earn 5%+ more in Alberta than you can in Saskatchewan? Probably.
Mark,
I would suggest the people moving here are either moving back home from BC and Alb or moving here because they need a job(Ontario). The majority of people from Ontario are probably coming from places like Windsor where housing has been absolutely slaughtered. I don’t think they would have much equity.
I do believe the increase of people moving may put pressure on rentals but not house prices.
Vinny,
You’re right it is sometimes hard to get the correct tone of a post. I kinda get stuck with one posts tone and carry it to another. I will go pop a valium.
Crikey,
Can you please provide a link for mish blog & calculated risk. I’d like to check them out.
Looking at statscan jobs numbers I see population has increased in all provinces. I suspect the word is out internationally Canada is fairing better than other places. But in those numbers there is no distiction of permanant residents. Are immigrants coming here working on a visa with intentions of sending money earned back to their home country?
Someways it is good, they are seemingly increasing demand for homes, and doing the jobs canadians don’t want to do.
The downfall is they are not keeping their earnings in Canada. They are supporting extended family members in their homeland.
Mark, if we’re talking in-Canada migration, no question (housing and rentals). And I’d certainly agree that for immigration, that there’s potential to impact the rental market – but a lot of this influx might just as easily be negligible, as well. I’m not knowledgeable enough in these areas, but wouldn’t “landed immigrant” (vs. citizenship) status and lack of a current job history in Canada pose challenges in obtaining financing?
Completely off-topic, but it’s now June. Does anyone know if they’ve broken ground yet on the River Landing project? (they were supposed to start in May if I’m not mistaken)
Interesting article on Greater Fool today about a condo purchaser that successfully sued the developer in BC to rescind his deal and get his deposit back. Original article in the second link. Precedent setting in BC; will we see similar challenges elsewhere?
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/06/04/condoholic/
http://www.vancouversun.com/Business/Court+rules+rescind+purchase+million+condo/1659340/story.html
Of course, Steven. Here are the links for Mish and Calculated Risk:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
Here are some other links that might interest you:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
Enjoy!
No prob Steven. I often jump in on conversations without reading the previous posts and sound like a moron. Sometimes I sound that way anyways.
Saw the comments on MACD and thought I would add my own experience.
I have done my own studies on MACD, moving averages and various other technical indicators. Basically, I wrote a computer program that used genetic algorithms to test various parameters to the technical indicators and then back tested them against historical data to see how well they actually perform. My own conclusion was very mixed. While in down or range bound markets you will usually do better with technical indicators, it is often only by a small margin. On the other hand, if you use the same indicators that worked in say a bear market in a bull market you will underperform. Basically it’s all a bunch of BS since you always need another piece of information that you can’t know. That is, you need to know whether it is a bull / bear / range bound market ahead of time. There is no one group of technical indicators that will outperform over an extended time period. Look around on the internet and you can find similar studies.