Saskatoon real estate sales were down this week compared to last, but continued to clip along at a better than average pace with eighty-two houses and condos changing hands, down from ninety-five units last week and well above the sixty-one properties that sold during the same week last year.
New listings of Saskatoon houses and condos came in at one hundred and thirty-eight properties, down three units from the previous week, and forty-one units lower than the same week last year when one hundred and seventy-nine homes were offered for sale on the multiple listing service. It would have been the slowest week for new listings since January if not for twenty-seven “to be moved” buildings located in McNab Park that were listed for sale, and thirteen condo units which were canceled from the system last week only to be re-listed this week.
Total active residential listings managed to push higher closing the week up twenty-seven properties to 1,528. The current inventory of Saskatoon real estate listings includes nine hundred and fifteen single-family detached houses, five hundred and nine condominiums, thirty-four semi-detached homes, thirty-seven duplexes, nine vacant lots, ten mobile homes and nine other things that apparently don’t fit neatly into any of the categories I’ve just listed. Total active listings were at 1,125 properties during the same week in 2008.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
New listings of Saskatoon houses and condos versus units sales
Prices took a sharp downward turn this week as the average selling price fell more than $30,000 from the previous week to $257,282. The change appears to be related to one of those strange anomalies that just happen for time to time. This week, there was just one lonely sale above the $400,000 mark, compared to fourteen the week before, so in spite of the fact that houses took a larger share of the sales this week, the average was pushed lower. The six-week average broke a seven week winning streak falling about $3,500 from last week to finish at $276,511 roughly $25K lower than the same week last year. The four-week median held firm at $270,000 for the third consecutive week, lower than the same week in 2008 by just $10,000.
Just fifty-one Saskatoon home sellers adjusted their price this week, not including the nineteen properties that were cancelled and re-listed, most at a new price.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
Prices of Saskatoon homes sold the week of May 18-22 2009
Sellers were feeling the love this week as home buyers said yes to deals that were within an average of $9,124, or 3.1% of the asking price. I expect this is probably one of the highest sales to list price ratios that we’ve seen in some time. Over forty percent of sellers struck a deal within $5K of their asking price, while another thirty four percent settled for a discount between $5,001 and $10,000.
Underbids on Saskatoon real estate for the week of May 18-22 2009
Saskatoon real estate sales statistics for the week of May 18-22 2009
See a Google map displaying the boundaries of Saskatoon real estate “areas” here
Data collection and calculation for our statistical reports
I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.
Follow our daily updates on Twitter @Norm_Fisher.
Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate
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{ 71 comments… read them below or add one }
“Sellers were feeling the love this week”… except those listing for $400k or higher, apparently. 1 sale in 82… Wow. If there wasn’t a clear indication of downwards pressure on higher-end homes before, it certainly looks like this could be good news for homebuyers looking to ‘upgrade’.
1528 listings and we’re almost past the peak for sales this year… will definitely be an interesting Summer! At 509 condominiums, are we at or close to approaching the highest level of inventory for this type of property?
If one were building a new home the “magic number” ((n terms of resale demand and residual value) would appear to be in the $325k-$350k price range.
Jason,
“except those listing for $400k or higher, apparently. 1 sale in 82… Wow.”
You don’t miss a beat do you?
The percentage of sales in the 400+ range has been pretty consistent from one month to the next this year and May is no exception. It is off considerably from a year ago but part of that could be accounted for by the fact that homes are 10% cheaper this May than they were last year at this time.
“At 509 condominiums, are we at or close to approaching the highest level of inventory for this type of property?”
I would say.
“Just fifty-one Saskatoon home sellers adjusted their price this week, not including the nineteen properties that were cancelled and re-listed, most at a new price.”
I would say that is more than just a ‘just’. That is still extremely significant. That means that as many as 70 sellers and agents are still not pricing things right the first time around (I am assuming that prices were lowered in all those cases but I think that is a safe assumption).
In my mind these adjustments, combined with the lack of sales in the 400+ range, indicates a future shift in the market. Those homes in the 400+ range will have to lower their price if they are TRULY wanting to sell. When that happens this will create pressure on the houses below that range to drop as long as buyers stop overextending themselves with long and cheap mortgages.
Human nature being what it is, I don’t think that over extension will stop any time soon.
Even during the peak selling months we are still seeing a build up of inventory – summer and fall will be interesting.
Norm, there are a lot of higher end homes that have hardly budged from last year’s valuation, and there is a fair amount of new development in The Willows and Stonebridge coming to the market as well (I’m referring more to the over $500k+ listings).
And might this not have more to do with the fact that there are far fewer out-of-province buyers to attract to artificially prop-up prices? When you can buy mountain-view property backing a golf course in BC for $200k+ less than comparable houses in Saskatoon it should start setting off alarm bells.
I’ve ran into more than a few people buying higher-end properties in places like Phoenix because the prices are simply too attractive to pass up. And rather than upgrading here, they’re actually downsizing and putting their higher-end home up for sale.
Honestly, I still don’t think a lot of these sellers “get it”. But they will soon enough… (captcha: “anxious hour”)
Ben B, I do agree that homes in the $400k+ range will have to lower their prices. I don’t necessarily see this translating into continued price drops below this range (yet), though, because this falls into the realm of the “first-time homebuyer”. Additional pressure from downsizing is further constraining inventory levels in this particular price range. Thus, this diminishing pool of buyers may actually accelerate drops in prices of higher-end homes. Good news for those looking to upgrade.
I see there’s still some pent up demand. Once those restless buyers are gone there is sure to be some sweet deals come summertime, as I doubt inventory will be eaten up to bring the market into balanced territory.
Jason,
It’s not really the sellers. Inexperienced first time home buyers are eager and offering too much for properties. In a buyer’s market one should ALWAYS underbid. There are still people OVERbidding, it’s crazy!
Ben B,
Certainly, it wasn’t my intention to minimize but there were 108 adjustments the week before so “just” seemed appropriate.
Listings pretty much always grow during the peak months and they’re growing far slower this year than they normally do. If you consider that 27 of the 1528 listings (McNab Park) don’t actually meet the definition of “real estate,” listings haven’t grown at all over the past month and only by 66 units in the past sixty days.
Heather, I was more referring to those sellers on the high-end of the spectrum, ie: the ones who’ve had their properties listed for over a year and barely moved off the peak list price from 2008. As for your second point, I couldn’t agree more — inexperience abounds and it’s crazy for fist time homebuyers to be throwing offers around.
Do you think we’re again setting a bad precedent for sellers with this new round of overbidding? (in the past this ‘feeding frenzy’ has tended to instill a rather bullheaded and arrogant mentality…) What are your thoughts on late Summer/Fall? Have we simply accelerated many home purchases that would have naturally occurred in the next 6-12 months – leaving us to soon face a decline in demand?
I like the negativity surrounding real estate hopefully there is more of it and I will get to purchase some more REIT’s like Riocan and H&R. As for the inventory situation I remember the bears saying there was supposed to be 2k+ listings now from all the speculators but im not seeing the huge surge predicted maybe the speculator theory is a little overstated.
Armoth,
Housing starts have crashed and most of the houses being built are for people who plan to live in them. I think there are also many speculators who missed the boat and selling now would mean cutting a cheque to the bank to cover the difference. I think many of these are back on the rental market.
Maybe not over 2k listings but over 1500 is quite significant.
I do have to ask though, if this province and Saskatoon are doing good economy wise( and I think so) compared to other places, why are there 1500 listings?
Doing good economy wise would mean people are staying here and more people are moving here. Listings should be coming down right? We are not over building anymore. I think there are quite a few speculators, there just is not a good way to measure that stat.
Armoth, why is it that any discussion that pertains to a housing correction is viewed in a negative light? Affordable housing encourages a population influx and provides for more disposable income – both benefits for the economy. We’re almost at 1,600 listings (and climbing); still have a few months yet… (you may be interested in checking out Arteis AX-UN).
Jason,
Why is that 1528 listings is “almost at 1600 listings?” Isn’t that actually closer to almost at 1500 listings?
Justin, sorry, I misread.
” … 1,600 listings (and climbing);”
Didn’t Norm just say above that listings haven’t really climbed at all in May? You seem to have such a predetermined conviction of a big correction that you can mould almost any piece of data to fit it. Or extend it onwards. Most bears thought the loss of the 40 year mortgage would destroy sales. Then inventory would destroy prices. Then the economy tanking here would surely do it this spring. Now it’s rising interest rates down the road. It’s actually quite amusing. Like the mirror image of a real estate booster. I particularly like your way of spinning strong sales now as a bearish sign, cause we’re using up buyers from the latter half of the month. Just admit it. The housing market is far stronger than you thought it would be this spring. And none of us know what it will be like in the fall and winter.
Mark, their needs to be boosters and naysayers on every issue – life wouldn’t be fun without that.
On a serious note, one must admit that for several years the housing industry has spun almost everything they could as positive. The industry (and often the media) also has a predetermined conviction that their won’t be a big correction and that in the past at least, a predetermined conviction that the market is booming!
There are some real concerns for those who will need to buy over the next short period. I don’t think those should be down played. What happens if one buys now and prices dip 10% in 6 months to a year?
What happens if in order to get into a house, one extends themselves to their current budgetary max and negative life situations combined with a large rise in interest rates (3-5%) occurs?
I suspect these people have a right to be a bit bearish and try to influence the market their way. After all, the market is only as high as it is as people were willing to pay.
My thoughts…
For those who sold this time last year and had owned for at least 2 to 12 years, I guess there really is no doubt that you did ok for yourself and maybe a lot better then ok. Since last year, if your still renting because you know you sold near the top, well, you’ve been right so far, and with over 1500 listings you know that there’s no rush. As long as listings stay up prices will go down. As far as inverted yield curves, bond issuance, BOC, the Fed, Bok Choy demand in China, inflation, deflation, or interest rates, none of that matters. As long as listings stay up prices will go down. I don’t know if thats a micro or macro economic conclusion but thats my thinkin and I’m stickin to it.
My point was, I don’t know too many buyers who are going to be bullish about the market (unless of course they are also sellers).
Of course the whole bear philosophy favors those upgrading and selling in general. First time buyers are disadvantaged by a bear philosophy and they are also the least experienced and often the least vocal.
The market however is dependent on those first time buyers.
I tend to agree with Rick’s view that higher than normal levels of inventory will continue to put downward pressure on prices. Inventory in some segments is quite high, while in others it’s already quite low, and in fact, some are clearly in seller’s market territory (less than a 2.5 month supply of single-family homes priced $200,000-$300,000).
I do think that the inventory situation over these early spring weeks in far more positive than negative though. The growth has been very small compared to other years and the arc on the listings graph suggests that active listings may peak sooner than they did last year, and that the peak number of listings for 2009 may well be lower than it was in 2008. With housing starts at a stand still it’s looking to me like this inventory is getting whittled away at.
It may be worth noting, maybe, that Saskhouses and Property Guys have about 350 listings between them, these people want to sell their homes too. It was’nt all that long ago that the MLS did’nt have this many listings, and this is not to mention all the sellers on the sidelines that wanted and tried to cash out big, but failed. With any selling strength these people may give it another shot which will prevent listings from dropping significantely. For buyers who find a good deal now, well, the deals are just going to get better.
Yes, it very well could be that inventory will shrink, lower prices would not hurt this retreat. Seller’s market is in the 200-300k range. Was last years seller’s market in the 300-350k range. For people who are buying, they must feel good about the home because I just can’t understand how they could feel good about the price.
Norm, For a 1000 sq. ft. four level that sells for 350k, would you measure the top 2 floors putting the cost at $350 per square foot? Regardless of the area, any area how does this price sound, what kind of bells and whistles would be required to command this kind of price.
Rick,
Last year’s sellers market was in almost every range, at least up to about this point in the year.
Generally you would include the exterior dimensions of the floor space located above grade. In most cases a 4-level split has two levels above grade and two below.
“Norm, For a 1000 sq. ft. four level that sells for 350k…what kind of bells and whistles would be required to command this kind of price.”
A magical lantern.
Rick, there are no 1000 square foot four level splits that are commanding such a price this year. Not even close. There are five splits that sold on the east side between 1000 and 1100 square feet in the past thirty days. The average price is $292,280 with an average size of 1,055 feet, for an average cost per square foot of $277. The highest fetch was $292.
Norm, “With housing starts at a stand still it’s looking to me like this inventory is getting whittled away at.” Is it possible that a lot of the housing starts from last year were temporarily suspended and my have only resumed this year? Compared to last year, there seems to be substantially more SFH construction in areas like Stonebridge and Hampton Village. I’m not clear on what constitutes a ‘housing start’ (is it the sale of the lot, a commitment from a buyer – even though they may still be in the planning/design stage – or a building permit?)
Also… “I do think that the inventory situation over these early spring weeks in far more positive than negative though.” The numbers for MLS and SaskHouses have obviously been referenced, but how many developer spec homes or unfinished developments are lurking around the corner? Many of these are not listed through MLS, and even new multi-unit projects are only listed a handful of units at a time. Since we had a lot of construction start last year that will ultimately finish this year, do these now complete yet unsold units not count at least as “unofficial” inventory?
Jason,
I’m pretty sure that “starts” are actually determined by permits taken.
Obviously I don’t have the answers to these other questions, but I would say that if anything has changed, builders are likely to have more of their product listed, not less, when compared to other years. There are no more homes on saskhouses than there were at this time last year either.
My understanding is that builders aren’t breaking the ground on anything new without a contract and a good deposit.
Sales are fairly good right now, if prices continue to gradually soften this likely will keep sales at seasonally adjusted respectable levels.
As for landlords, they sure hate to move off of their sky high rental rates. There is some asking a little less, but it sure isn’t the case across the board.
Mark, I thought hard about writing something really witty in response, but Point2 had various technical issues (it seemed) last night. Ultimately, though, you are correct that you can pretty much present any numbers to represent whatever viewpoint you want (as you’ve so eloquently demonstrated yourself).
That being said, you’ve acknowledged speculating in real estate (as an investment, income or otherwise), so you clearly have a vested interest in a “strong market” and seeing prices remain consistent or slightly edge up. You’re also in Regina (if memory serves), and it’s generally recognized that prices are artificially higher in Saskatoon without any real fundamental reason for this. So when some of us comment on the ‘unusually’ high price of homes in Saskatoon (at least from our perspective), we’re also drawing a comparison with other cities (including Regina).
In the end, as I have no vested interest in the current housing market, my perspective and comments do not serve an ulterior motive. I’ve tried to advocate for rationale thinking (as opposed to emotional) when it comes to purchasing a home, and this was only aimed at sharing the benefit of some
first-hand experience (some gleamed the hard way) with new homebuyers. I firmly believe the best deals to be had will materialize late in the Fall, through Winter and into 2010, but I could just as easily be wrong, too.
At the very worst I’ll have missed out a brief buying opportunity, and will simply have to wait until the next one presents itself. At best, maybe I just avoided a potentially huge pitfall in the form of a rapidly depreciating asset in a slower market, which would cost even more should interest rates rise. Perhaps the prime buying opportunities are just around the corner and require only patience. (captcha = “motives few”)
Priceless!
“Most bears thought the loss of the 40 year mortage would destroy sales. Then inventory would destroy prices. Then the economy tanking here would surely do it this spring. Now it’s rising interest rates down the road. It’s actually quite amusing. Like the mirror image of a real estate booster. I particularly like your way of spinning strong sales now as a bearish sign, cause we’re using up buyers from the latter half of the month. Just admit it.”
——–
Loved the post Mark! I was waiting for someone to admit something but obviously I won’t hold my breath.
Norm
There might be no sales of four level splits in the 350 range and the average sale price may be below 300 however that doesn’t stop people from listing them at a MUCH higher price.
This includes homes on mls (including one of your listings – 319) and on sask houses. I can find several in the 350 to 370 range. Certainly sellers (including realtors) are not registering the information that the market is telling them – see below.
Would one then not assume that you should be offering in the 310 to 330 range on these 350 – 370 homes? (1100 * 292 = 320000 or so).
“There are five splits that sold on the east side between 1000 and 1100 square feet in the past thirty days. The average price is $292,280 with an average size of 1,055 feet, for an average cost per square foot of $277. The highest fetch was $292.”
One thing i do hope is that the rental situation does improve cause not many years ago I was stuck with my family in a 2 bedroom condo in lawson so I know how it feels. Im bearish on the condo situation way too much supply and hopefully they turn them into rental units and will help people struggling.
Ben B,
There have always been, and will always be, overpriced properties on the market. To some degree these are essential for sellers who wish to price realistically as they paint a clear picture of what buyers are definitely not prepared to pay for certain specs.
Even with that in mind the house Rick describes isn’t all that common as a listing, and certainly not at all common when it comes to actual sales.
Rick was talking about a 1000 square foot home at $350. I topped them up by using a range of 1000-1100.
You say “I can find several in the 350 to 370 range.”
I see five MLS listings in the 350-370 range that are between 1000 and 1100 square feet.
I see 7 MLS listings in this range that are between 1100 and 1200 square feet.
I see 14 MLS listings in this range that are between 1201 and 1300 square feet.
I see 16 MLS listings in this range that are larger than 1400 square feet.
The small handful of listings that you and Rick are pointing to are hardly representative of the market.
Loved the post Mark!
I was just curious if that price was attainable. I’m going to have to check out those 350 to 370k listings with between 1000 and 1100 squares, they gotta be just awesome or a lot disapointing.
As for current pricing I think as long as prices are a litttle lower then the month before sales should continue to be ok. I think we all can agree that we saw prices last spring and early summer that made our eyes all pop out a little further
Rick,
Well, you know what they say. “Anything is possible” but I’m thinking it gets less probable every day.
There is one sale on the books above $350,000 for 1000-1100 square feet in the last 60 days. Three in the last ninety. For the same 90 day period last year there were 22. Clearly this is becoming a rather rare property.
350-370 would buy you 1,429 square feet on average over the past 90 days. Same 90 days last year? 1,243.
Hey Mark,
First off, I’d like to say that I do enjoy your posts, exactly *because* your point of view different from my own. I might be labeled as a bear, but believe me, I’d love to be convinced to be more bullish.
I have admitted in the past that the market appears much stronger than I expected last year, and I will gladly do so right now, but it is just the reasons behind that appearance that have me (and others) concerned. To me, what’s currently goosing the market (very low “rent” on borrowed money) is neither sustainable nor stable. It’s the thought that the cost of financing their purchase really has nowhere to go but up that concerns people, but you’re right, no one knows what the future holds. I sincerely hope that employment and wage numbers don’t fall much further. Regardless, I think it’s important to discuss these issues, because above all, people need to feel that they’re informed and prepared to make big decisions, yes?
In the meantime, being the stand-up guy that you are, I’m sure you can admit I made some predictions about the markets and economy last summer that appear to have been a fir bit more accurate than yours.
Peace out.
Hi Heather,
I guess I meant to say that I’m looking for good *reasons* to be more bullish. I’m not necessarily finding them.
There seem to be a lack of good, cogent, non-inflammatory arguments as to why recovery is just around the corner, wouldn’t you say? I’m waiting to be convinced.
I completely agree with you on the dangers of maxing out the monthly payment, and to anecdotally see 80% of people doing just this when financing is as low as it’s going to get is very concerning indeed.
Heather,
I read an article not to long ago titled “Life is a pyramid scheme”. It is an interesting article (or tale) that paints a picture of what growth means to the world. It proposes that prosperity can only exist amongst growth. When growth stops, prosperity declines. Life therefore is a “pyramid scheme”.
It makes one ask the questions: what happens when the world stops growing? Can an economy be in equilibrium or must it grow?
Some arguments in this article are very interesting. The idea that we need rampant economic, infrastructure, and population growth for wide spread prosperity is easy to see around us in the world today. And scary! What happens when we stop growing? Can people survive in a sustainable way? or do we need growth to keep our jobs.
We have been growing since inception of civilization but pretty soon we will be to big for the Earth.
Can Saskatoon be prosperous without growth. And can growth happen without price increases?
A bit of reading to start the week
“Civilizations rise because they find new ways to exploit natural and human resources, to tip the balance between culture and nature. They feed on their local ecology until it is degraded, thriving only while they grow. When they can no longer expand, they fall victim to their own success. Civilization is a pyramid scheme.”
http://www.sacredlands.org/pyramid.htm
I have found this forum extremely useful in trying to make a decision. We are currently sitting in one of those houses that are on the cusp of being in a “sellers market” and have been looking at a potential upgrade for a number of reasons. From my perspective it is with great trepidation that I look at purchasing a higher end house right now. I quick drive through Willow grove will show a pile of homes for sale (I counted 8 on one street alone) in that higher end bracket – if they are not moving then you know the prices will drop. It also appears from my limited research that we are close to or have surpassed Calgary in housing prices. This for me is a bad sign as once any of the economic pillars starts to fall there is nothing else to prop up living in Saskatoon (i.e. Mountains). The scary thing for me is that these higher end house are not moving in spite of a relatively strong economy in Saskatoon, low interest rates and the normal spring fever. I think the bears have some good arguments on the high end houses anyway.
Am I missing something?
Bulls are sure great at overexaggerating and twisting words! ie. Bears hate SK, bears thought sales would be destroyed, bears are negative, blah blah blah. I always manage to find people’s strong points. :’) This is like an ongoing soap opera, I don’t see why some feel so threatened by opinions? Hmmmm.
Jason,
You’re right, the high-end property sellers are going to be in for a rough ride. As they start budging on their asking price it will slowly create the downwards pressure needed for the market to become more affordable in all areas.
I’m not worried about the overbids, these people are few and far between and I don’t think they’re influencing anyone. They’ll just be sorry if they’re forced to sell in a couple years. I think the pent up demand from first time home buyers will be quelled in early summer leading to better deals for those who waited. I don’t think sales are going to dry up, unless the economy worsens and people start losing their jobs.
Crikey,
Good points. The information Norm passed on from a broker (which some bulls aren’t acknowledging AND is EXTREMELY significant) is the fact that the majority of buyers are maxing out their mortgage as to what they can afford. VERY very dangerous.
Question, why do you wish to be more bullish? To hope for a strong housing market which is ALREADY unaffordable by defined standards is to hope for future generations not being able to afford their own property. That’s not what I want for my future kids. Why anyone does is beyond me!
Now if we’re talking SK economy, like most bears I do NOT wish for it to decline. A good economy does not have to correlate with overpriced housing.
“there is nothing else to prop up living in Saskatoon”
Wow…if that is your view of saskatoon then I think I speak for many when I say:
You are free to leave whenever you like, just pack your bags and don’t look back.
Is the average house price in Saskatoon not currently at the level of an average house across Canada?
I read that the average house is now worth $282,000 in Canada as per Century 21 for April 2009. Norm is that about the average at the moment?
Saskatoon prices,
It’s true that the average price of a home in Saskatoon was $275,500 in April compared to roughly $282,000 across Canada. However, it’s important to understand that the average Saskatchewan wage earner only takes in about 98% of what an average Canadian earns. In fact, average incomes are actually higher in two of the other nine provinces.
All kidding aside, I think the other argument would be that houses are too much money everywhere in Canada. There might even be a decent advantage for Albertan’s who do tend to earn far more on average than we do. I have heard that Calgary prices may be on the way up.
Saskatoon prices,
I see from the Canadian Real Estate Association’s April media release that the average price of a home in Canada is actually $306,366 in April.
Things are really looking up this evening!
Capcha: Is vamooses (huh?)
L.oki,
I guess that’s one person’s theory on civilization. Some points I agree with, but overall I’m not convinced. The earth is very populated, especially in the older countries. There are only a few things that could cause human extinction: earth becomes uninhabitable, large meteorite hits, sun burns out, superbug/biochemical warfare, nuclear war. :’) Until then, we’re here to stay whether or not society as we know it collapses.
It’s the attitude of overconsumption that is leading to our doom. The worst thing that can happen is we keep living as we have been. Everybody pushes for more growth but it’s completely unsustainable. I believe there is a economic homeostasis that can be reached. Not saying that it wouldn’t come with some casualties but would ultimately be for the greater good.
As for SK the “boom” hasn’t provided much for wage increases to keep up to the cost of living. Prior to 2007 our affordabilty level was excellent, some would say too affordable. (huh?) When things took off we went from one end of the scale to the other. This is why housing will come down still, as many people remain shut out of the market. The main thing keeping sales afloat are low interest rates. Once those are gone prices will most definitely adjust out of necessity. Imagine if people were still required to have 25% down and 25 year amortizations. This may still come to pass somewhere down the road. Also as I’ve mentioned before, there will be many more single family dwellings on the market as baby boomers retire over the next few years and move into condos, etc.
Crikey,
“There seem to be a lack of good, cogent, non-inflammatory arguments as to why recovery is just around the corner, wouldn’t you say? I’m waiting to be convinced.”
Agreed. Things are kind of in a lull right now, I believe many are jumping the gun on how good the economy actually is. We could be in limbo for quite some time yet. I guess it’s hard to measure success or failure if there’s no growth or decline. :’)
Alan,
Just curious what range you’re thinking when you say ‘high end homes.”
Saskatchewan EI claims up 8.5% month over month in March:
http://news.sympatico.msn.ctv.ca/abc/home/contentposting.aspx?isfa=1&feedname=CTV-TOPSTORIES_V3&showbyline=True&date=true&newsitemid=CTVNews%2f20090526%2fEI_report_090526
Probably a lot of tradespeople, and potash workers. This doesn’t exactly fit the mould of “strong economy”.
Heather,
Those #’s are for initial and renewal claims received. For Saskatchewan, EI “beneficiaries” receiving regular benefits are up 11.8% MOM and 44.3 YOY for March.
Take a look at the numbers for BC and AB and those might not look so bad, though:
AB : claimants up 32.1% MOM and 162.5 YOY
BC: claimants up 26.7% MOM and 113.9 YOY
http://tinyurl.com/pcj4sc
This is also the first time in quite awhile I can remember seeing EI beneficiary #’s up for every province and territory YOY.
Oh my! That’s a bit scarey. Thanks for the link.
Hi Norm,
Are you actually suggesting – in indicating that two provinces have higher average incomes than Saskatchewan (Alberta and BC is presume?)- that the Saskatchewan average income is now higher than the Canadian average income while housing prices remain lower than the Canadian average?
Just joking…
In case we haven’t noticed our tax rates are lower than the Canadian average in both income and sales tax.
Given the current prices of oil, potash, uranium, natural gas, and food, as well as prospects for future higher prices, we do not have the average economic provincial profile. For the sake of conversation I would ask the bloggers: if you were Brad Wall who among the other premiers would you wish to trade places with this year to present a provincial budget?
Saskatoon prices,
“Are you actually suggesting…”
Not sure what I was getting at. We were celebrating something last night and I had about five stiff whiskeys before I decided to go blogging. You should have seen the farewell that I wrote for “Leaving.” Thankfully I was sobering up before I posted it.
Actually, average incomes are higher in Alberta and Ontario. Together, they drive the average Canadian income about $17 a week higher than Saskatchewan’s. Of course, concluding that house prices are fair in Saskatchewan based on this would be a bit of a stretch, but clearly affordability is a concern in most parts of the country.
Saskatchewan’s prices seem reasonable, but Saskatoon’s are a lot higher than the rest of the province
Ontario is the other province with wages higher than Saskatchewan, add to Alberta, and a lot of people making more than here
BC is about even, just less
Canadian Economic Recovery is probably bad for Saskatoon, kind of gets rid of all the Ontarians moving here, when a house in a lot of Ontario towns around Toronto is cheaper than here.
Might even cause a wave of ex-Ontarians to move back home to Ontario, cashing in on super expensive Saskatoon real estate, like when ex-pats used to come back to Saskatchewan from Alberta. Back when Saskatchewan used to be cheaper.
$240,000 is “reasonable” for Saskatchewan but $275,000 is too high for Saskatoon? What would you consider reasonable for Saskatoon?
if Saskatoon is $275,000 and Saskatchewan is $240,000 Saskatchewan’s average without Saskatoon is probably just over $200,000, far less than the $240,00 inlcuding Saskatoon
Saskatoon could represent half of total sales in the province, so $200,000 elsewhere, or $275,000 in Saskatoon? that’s a big difference
Thanks for clarifying what you were getting at.
You’re not far off on price but Saskatoon did just under one third (352) of all provincial transactions (1138) in April. The average selling price for a Saskatchewan home was $212,006 without Saskatoon’s numbers included. Regina accounted for slightly fewer sales at 303 with an average of $252,826.
483 of 1138 Saskatchewan real estate sales in the month of April were outside of Saskatoon and Regina. They fetched an average of $186,398.
Saskatoon $65,000 above the rest of the province and $23,000 above Regina?
During the down turn, Regina and its government jobs sure seem a nice alternative to Saskatoon’s massive potash layoffs!
I can’t believe Saskatoon house prices remain so high, with so much supply, a weakening local economy and cheaper alternatives elsewhere. Do I dare take the plunge and move to Regina?
Matt,
“The rest of the province” covers a lot of ground and I would think that it’s normal for the more major centres in each province to be considerably higher that the smaller cities, towns, villages, etc.
The Regina thing is a mystery to me as Saskatoon has been higher for as long as I can remember. Seems odd given that the average income is actually higher in Regina. The gap does seem to be closing some. Just last April there was a $50,000 difference between the two cities. Month to date, we are a mere $10,000 apart. A colleague of mine who is responsible for the Royal LePage House Price Survey numbers for Regina has close ties to Saskatoon and says that a house of similar quality and location is very close in price between the two cities.
The reason houses are worth more in Saskatoon is simple. Regina is a government city.
Gee! That is simple. Thanks L.oki!
Wow. Just got back to reading my blog and see I got some posters upset. My first comment is “relax” life is way to short to go flaming on a website. My second comment is that I should clarify my earlier points. I love Saskatoon and have been born and raised in Saskatchewan and intend to die here. The point I was making is that without the current economic benefits there are a host of other regions in the country that the majority of people would list as preferable to Saskatoon. There was a reason before the our economic boom that we had such cheap housing. There is also another reason that SK is only now starting to grow its population.
Norm
In my non real estate expert mind a higher end house is anything over $400,000. What I am worried about is selling our house (in the $350,000 range) and moving up to say a $500,000 house only to see that part of the housing market suffer a larger decline then the market we are in. Perhaps the fear is unwarranted.
No problem Norm. I thought it was obvious, but I just wanted to clear the air
Hey Allan,
Thanks for clarifying. I think your concern is perfectly legit, though personally, I probably wouldn’t have as big a concern moving from $350 to $500 as entering the market above $500 as a newcomer to the Saskatoon market. If the $500+ market falls through the floor, everything beneath it will be affected, perhaps not to the same degree, but affected. In other words, a $500 home can’t drop to $400 without having a pretty big impact on the value of the $350 home. No doubt, if you make the move you increase your overall exposure by having more invested in real estate.
So how many sales above $400,000 have we had so far this week?
Len,
10.
Thanks Norm. Lots to think about. In the end if I find a house I like and can afford (even with higher rates down the road) we will likely buy it and then ignore the market fluctuations ahead. We have been in our first house for over 10 years and this will likely be our last.
Amelie,
Ah, there’s nothing more fun than a real estate ad without a price. Apparently, the price is not important to some people.
I also see that there isn’t any contact information on the River Landing Village website, which is otherwise beautiful.
Here’s the contact page from the developer’s website which includes some phone numbers and email addresses. These properties are not listed but whoever answers on that end should be able to direct you appropriately.
http://www.lpdi.ca/contact-lake-placid/
Best wishes.
Norm,
Just wondering if you’ve ever noticed a ‘move-up effect’ in terms of when certain types of housing tends to sell? Do the larger homes tend to sell better a little later in the spring vs. starter homes?
Just curious, because my sister and her fiance each wanted to put their starter homes up for sale with the spring market, so they listed them last week (touch-ups took a little longer than they’d planned). Only when one of the houses has a ’sold’ sign will they be making offers on a larger home to share. It makes me think that a lot of people probably want to sell in spring, and won’t look at buying the bigger/better place until they have an accepted offer in hand.
Hey Norm
Interested in getting a place at the river landing, but their site isn’t much help with re to prices/ contact details etc.
please help!
Thanks for the info, Norm!
Heather,
I could see that might be the case in a market like this one where property is moving a little slower but over the years I can’t say that I’ve really noticed that. The average selling time hasn’t gone much over 30 days for most of the past 10 years. Selling a “starter” has never really taken much time.