Total residential unit sales for 2009.

-4100

Total listings for 2009.

-10000

Average sale price for Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2009.

-265K, 275K, 265k, 260K

Median sale price for Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2009.

-260K, 265K, 255k, 255K

Average sale price for 2009.

-265K

Median sale price for 2009.

-255K

You are correct.

Anyone catch W5 last night? Very sad story.

BTW, I by no means “want” anyone to suffer through this recession. I remember a year ago encouraging people to think for themselves and their own budget.

IMO the media, including commercials, newspapers, television, is very good at promoting the idea that we can all afford everything we want right now mentality among consumers. Scotiabanks “your richer than you think commercials” are really hilarious. I think Rick Mercer should do a spoof on “You are poorer than you think” – which is the reality of the Canadian consumers debt levels. That mentality is at the base of the real estate bubble, and now many people are caught up in the smoke and mirrors of it all.

When I say it is not yet buyers prices, most sellers are at a disbelief at the loss of equity they had counted on. Reality is that a widget (house) is only worth what someone else thinks that widget is worth. To me, a house is worth more in an environment where the GDP and house prices arent really out of whack.

Pungo – it never hurts to look with objective reality, leave aside emotion and sentimentality. I liked Saskatoon as a city, and had considered moving there, and would again if the right situation presented itself. I did see that a lot of people in Saskatoon got badly hurt – and I would say more got hurt than further ahead with the boom. But, the voice of the wealthier, as usual was louder and better greased than the underdog. As the founding province of healthcare, I feel it was and is a real hipocracy.

I just wasn’t sure if you were tuned in to the entire discussion.

I expect that SRAR will likely produce a release on Monday once they’re all back to work. I will post it as soon as it’s out.

Of *course* you were being sarcastic. So was I.

When does the December SRAR data come out?

Your points are all good but let me ask you this. Given what I’ve said in my comment to Nick about average condo prices for December, how would you feel about seeing this headline in next week’s paper?

Saskatoon condo prices back on the rise.

Relax my friend, there are plenty of bad real estate news stories in the cards for 2009, including year over year downs. It’s quite possible that January’s numbers may be down. I’d say February is an almost for sure. March without a doubt.

now we all know that is an attention grabbing headline worthy of front page

and it is the media’s job to be on that stuff

they often have a housing article

even if monthly averages don’t mean too much, being down year over year is still a big story, they could even let their usual booster try to explain away why falling prices really means we need to BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT BEFORE THE NEXT IMMINENT BOOM as per that news talk story completely devoid of any actual facts from thebench

after announcing ad nauseum 2 years of unprecedented real estate growth a drop in condo prices year over year is a big story

to prove that, i bet if you asked some one on the street if a: they knew condos were down year over year for the first time this october or whatever and b: if they thought it was news worthy you’d get overwhelming no i didn’t know and yes why wasn’t that on the news

maybe would have cut into the radio ads on news talk for new condos

TOUCHE even red neck alberta has more unique stuff than saskatoon did thats when you realize saskatoon was pretty redneck compared to any major canadian city

“Mmmm. Sub-par restaurant… who could refuse?”

Of course I was being sarcastic. Some people seem to think that there isn’t a decent place to eat in Saskatoon. I was thinking along the fine dining line, maybe $50-75.00. Lol. In all seriousness, something nice.

I think you need to have more than the one guess to make it interesting. It’s a long time until January 2010. I thought that having these small opportunities to make points could keep it interesting. Perhaps it would even be fair to allow new people to jump on board mid-stream?

Nick,

“Funny, the main stream media completely ignored when Saskatoon condos dropped 5% year over year by the end of November?”

In fairness to the main stream media, they don’t get a detailed breakdown of activity on a month to month basis. Unless you’re reading our monthly “Closer Look” or tracking asking prices very closely you probably wouldn’t know it. Of course, the other thing to consider is that the monthly stats can even be a bit misleading. For instance, the average residential selling price went from $279,366 in August to $297,836 in September, yet real property values were actually declining during that time. You’ll see something similar in December’s condo numbers. The truth is all in the trends and I do think that the media is talking about declines.

Maybe a summary of the values from last year in the post for us to use as a baseline?

Memories in Regina is great, once rated one of the best places in Canada to eat, no where in Saskatoon compares as a high end French restaurant, complete with ocassional snooty waiter and all! (just a cheezy name)

I used to really like Simon’s in Saskatoon, was trendy and unique (reminded me a bit of the Willow in Regina, though less unique) BUT alas, a classy, unique restaurant in Saskatoon couldn’t make it. Instead, Lakewood is getting yet another Boston Pizza!

Norm, one final prediction, I bet by the final February numbers, average residential prices will finally be down Year over Year! (Median might be down year over year by January!)

Funny, the main stream media completely ignored when Saskatoon condos dropped 5% year over year by the end of November?(or was it October?) Thanks Norm for bucking trend and providing these milestone stories.

Will be interesting to see how much condos are down year over year for Dec. Already, being down year over year at all shows Condos are in very weak, as prices peaked AFTER January 08, so we’re now comparing even lower condo average prices to higher prices from last year. Down 10%? Saying our market is “booming” when condos lose 10% of their value, and we have a lot of sellers in denial, and more condo conversions to come seems just plain wrong now!

The situation does suck right now for renters in Saskatoon, but I think it will get a lot better by next fall, when the owners of all those high priced condos and houses realize they’ll have to take a big loss or else rent out their properties.

I’m sorry that you feel that way about Saskatoon, but I just don’t think it’s fair to demonize a whole city. Unless it’s Regina. Just kidding!

I like the point system, but I think too much weight is given to the quarterly data (eight out of 12 possible points). You could be mostly right on the 2009 year-end data and still be off on the quarterly predictions. This might add to the drama, though…

“just waiting for my prize. ”

Good news! It’s a free market evaluation. Congratulations!

“any thought to putting out a poll for predictions for 09?”

Yes. Here’s what I’m thinking. One point for each of the following.

Total residential unit sales for 2009.

Total listings for 2009.

Average sale price for Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2009.

Median sale price for Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2009.

Average sale price for 2009.

Median sale price for 2009.

Possible 12 points.

Separate post. Record your predictions as a comment. I’d wait until SRAR reports for December and then put a time limit on submitting.

I’m considering a prize of some sort for the winner. Perhaps a nice dinner for two at one of our sub-par restaurants. I would probably have to get people to register by email so I actually have some record of registrants but could still protect their anonymity.

Any thoughts?

just waiting for my prize.

any thought to putting out a poll for predictions for 09?

“I don’t think it’s fair to claim that Saskatoon residents are somehow responsible for “doing a number” on the poor.”

I disagree. It was the people of Saskatoon who stayed silent while our newspapers posted articles of families driven out into trailer parks because of the high prices. It was the people of Saskatoon that did nothing when the elderly were driven from their homes to make room for more condos. It was the people of Saskatoon that refused to give their workers a sufficient pay boost to help soften some of the cost of living increases. It was the people of Saskatoon who in the past hypocricaly critized Alberta’s for their apparent self interest and looking after number 1 attitude, only to abandon their own principles as soon as they were tempted with easy money generated by the housing boom. It was the people of Saskatoon who sat around, patting each on the back, smugly comparing equity appreciation in their homes while this whole housing scmozzle unfolded and many people got hurt. And I hope its the people of Saskatoon and their respective greed who get hurt the most when the dust settles.

Here’s what prices there looked like.

December ‘08 – Median of $230,000 & average of $234,000

November ‘08 – Median of $222,500 & average of $230,000

December ‘07 – Median of $210,000 & average of $208,000

Here’s what prices looked like.

December ‘08 – Median of $249,500 and average of $266,411

November ‘08 – Median of $265,000 and average of $278,495

December ‘07 – Median of $244,250 and average of $255,452

Thank you for comment #10,000 (and all of the others).

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/December+real+estate+slump+worsens/1135819/story.html

Preliminary, unofficial MLS data shows single-family home sales plunged by 46.9 per cent compared with December 2007 while condo sales fell by 47.8 per cent

Toronto

http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/index.htm

TORONTO, December 17, 2008 — Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 1,487 resale transactions during the first half of December, from 2,868 sales recorded in the same period a year ago

Vancouver is actually doing quite well according to this graph

http://vancouvercondo.info/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/reverse-sfh-2008.gif

When, not if, prices drop by another 5-10% (spring time) I think people could easily get a home priced at 500k now for about 420k- 440k in a few months. How?

Builders will have to cut prices and/or offer bigger incentives to move product and with a possible gst cut for new homes adding in wheeling and dealing by the buyer, I think buyers affordability will improve drastically.

The only problem is that with tax cuts, Canada goes into a bigger deficit and then we mortgage more of our children’s future with more taxes. Not my fault when they were are born, or is it?

Does anyone really base their choice of where to live on the restaurant selection? I find that Saskatoon has plenty of great restaurants, and many I haven’t even tried. Then again I only eat out a few times a week.

I have no idea about the “bar scene” in Saskatoon, but if lack of “good” clubs is keeping the drunken, rowdy people from moving here, I say it’s a good thing. Once again, who bases their choice of where to live on the selection of lounges or bars?

My advice to those who aren’t living in Saskatoon and just come here to throw mud at the city… don’t you have something better to do? You don’t see me going to a random city’s blog and claiming that city sucks. Try to find a more positive outlet for your energy, you’ll live a happier and longer life.

Happy New Year everyone!

Grid pertains to the roadways – whilst more practical I don’t like the feel of it at all. This is part of what makes Saskatoon seem more lush to me. “The river or bust” I’ll take over absence of river. I quite like biking/walking along the Meewasin.

Winters in Winnipeg are colder, just as summers tend to be hotter – this is due to the humidity – it makes everything worse. I had my car snowed in a couple times, never once have I in Saskatoon. The summer I left Winnipeg it was so terribly hot the humidex brought the temperature above 50C. Never have I seen a humidex used for Saskatoon. Dry heat/cold are more bearable.

I don’t need “grown-up” clubs to find stuff to do with my spare time. I do however enjoy Lydia’s, Vangeli’s Tavern, and Bud’s in the Broadway district. I can see where a person who eats at restaraunts and goes drinking at clubs frequently might prefer a larger city to Saskatoon. I only dine out on special occassions and don’t drink because I like spending my money on other things.

Your city is also the king of trash (dirt city) with the only upside being you have the science center which I want to bring my kids too. About the food in saskatoon your forgetting about 2nd ave grill , chiantis, the keg, the stationhouse, and the one and only quiznos! Quiznos alone boosts our property values by 10% and we have 3 of them. The only fun thing to do in Regina is watch some of the government officials and employees waste our hard earned tax dollars on gold plated toilet seats and limos from one restaurant to the next! K done my rant

p.s.

The politician comment does not apply to Brad Wall im sure he has a normal toilet seat bought from Rona and does not take limos.

p.s.s.

Dont take the whole thing literally i actually dont think ur city is a mound of dirt it is decent as is Saskatoon just some prefer one or the other =o)

hangover and Saskatchewan’s fête last year will be no different. Housing resales

and prices are already showing clear signs of weakening. More is likely to occur

more from RBC

downside of frenzied markets

from George’s Royal Bank Link, sounds like we’re still in denial and the worst is yet to come, just a bit behind Alberta, like we are in everything