Saskatoon real estate week in review-December 21-25 2009
Saskatoon real estate sales took an expected tumble during Christmas week falling to just thirty units, down from fifty-five last week but trumping numbers for the same week last year when just fifteen single-family homes and condominiums were reported sold to the Saskatoon MLS system. Typically, this week and the next produce the lowest points on our chart at both the back end and the front end of the New Year.
New listing numbers came in remarkably strong given the season with thirty Saskatoon home sellers listing a property during the six days leading up to Christmas, down for fifty-five last week, but substantially higher than the same week in 2008 when just fifteen properties were offered for sale. Both sales and listings recorded a one hundred percent year-over-year gain.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
Active listings continued to slide as total residential inventory lost nearly five percent of its weight on a week-over-week basis and finished fifty-six percent lower than was one year ago. Total active listings are at 728 including 417 single-family detached houses and 264 condominiums. By this time last year there were 1,292 residential properties listed on the Saskatoon MLS system including 782 single-family homes and 429 condos. Last year, there were more houses available for sale than the total of MLS listings available this year. Nationally, as talk of growing home prices has been grabbing headlines residential inventory began to show some signs of turning around as the Canadian Real Estate Association reported a five percent month-over-month increase in residential MLS listings and posted the largest gain since January of 2008 with 69,110 properties being offered for sale during the month of November.
This week, there were just three cancelled and withdrawn listings and not a single one made a return bearing the new listing flag. Five sellers adjusted their price, four taking the traditionally practical downward approach. The other added ten percent to his asking price while visions of sugar-plums danced in his head.
Speaking of sugar-plums, it was nothing short of a plum week for high-end home sellers as five of the thirty home sales reported recorded a price between $642,500 and $795,000. The average selling price reached its highest point this year at $310,143 gaining nearly $100K over the same week last year when a run on low priced condominiums pushed the average price through the floor. The broader six-week average returned us to reality and slipped just under a thousand dollars from last week to $286,389 but showed strong gains over the same week in 2008 when it slid to $270,282. The four-week median took an upward direction once again gaining four thousand dollars on the week to finish at $284,000, well above last year’s number of just $245,000.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
The average underbid on the twenty-nine of thirty Saskatoon homes that sold for less than asking price was $10,420, up marginally from last week when it was $9,924. The average discount as a percentage of the asking price grew from 3.2% last week to 3.4%.
This week in the media
Flaherty raises specific actions he may take to cool housing
Cure for housing market carries risk
Just how big a mortgage can you carry?
Canada’s household debt still manageable: CIBC World Markets
Saskatchewan population breaks new records
Saskatchewan population growth is still too slow to reach 2030 goal
Saskatchewan earning and EI recipients up
A tricky dance of debt for home buyers
U.S. home prices continue to fall
U.S. move to cover Fannie/Freddie losses stirs controversy
As this year draws to a close let me just say thank you all for reading and contributing here. I’m looking forward to a great 2010 and hope the same for all of you.
A map displaying the boundaries of Saskatoon real estate areas is here.
An overview of data collection and calculation practices for our statistical reports is here.
I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.
Real estate geeks can follow our daily updates on Twitter @norm_fisher.
Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.
Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate
There's 13 Comments So Far
December 26th, 2009 at 10:00 pm
This is almost more of a legal / tax question but you being a realtor perhaps you can shed some light on it Norm. I was under the impression that when you sell a revenue property, even if you are buying a new one, you have to pay capital gains on any profit made off of the sale of the old one. So if you bought a duplex 2004 pre-boom for $200k and sell post-boom for $400k, you have a $200k capital gain.
However, I have also heard (on american websites) of a concept of tax-deferred purchases where you roll the capital gain forward. Basically you can just put off the taxes. Do you know if this is possible in Canada?
December 26th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
Peter,
This is not an allowable practice under Canada’s Income Tax Act. CREA has been lobbying for changes that would allow this for the past few years but no luck at this point.
December 27th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
By the comments from Mark Carney and Jim Flarhaty it’s hard to tell if there trying to keep the current housing market heated or cool it down. Carney is warning people not to overextend themselves because interest rates are going up, gauranteed. Flarhaty is threatening to shorten amortizations and require larger downpayments. It seems to me that if I was a prospective buyer now would be the time to buy and lock in to a 5yr mortgage.
It would seem obvious that they want to keep the market heated, I don’t know if there that smart or that stupid.
December 28th, 2009 at 6:23 pm
The only thing Flaherty has calculated is that somehow it will benefit the rich.
If there’s anything you can bank on, it’s that.
The conservatives appeal to people in the most primitive of ways.
December 29th, 2009 at 10:19 am
After the last few monologues it is nice to see Alex’s nonsense down to 3 sentences…
Last winter [just under a year ago] I predicted [here] what we’ve seen (5-10% drop in average price) and down to 700 homes in inventory by year end. I also predicted a peak inventory between 1500 and 1700. At the time most [on here] were claiming well over 2000 homes in inventory and huge pricing drops down to 2005-2006 levels.
For next year I predict we’ll see inventory down to 500 by May. It’ll then stay within a hundred of that either way for the remainder of the year. We’ll see some slightly upward price pressure by mid year in the range of 1-3%.
The one exception to the above is that I think there will continue to be some further downward pressure on condos. Inventory is too high and prices are still inflated compared to houses. By all rights they are 20% too high, but I only expect a modest 5-10% reduction by midyear due to cost of ownership pressures.
Finally as was seen last year the best buys on the market are going to be in the middle class upgrade. Going from the ‘middle’ of the market to a higher end home. Or from condo to a house [atleast in the near term].
I’ll go back to lurking now. Hope everyone has a happy [and safe] New Year.
December 29th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
Ryan,
Wow, I never knew expressing yourself was so taboo nowadays! Where I come from, being deliberately short is either ignorant or evasive.
I’m glad I don’t come from where you come from. It must be so awful bottling everything up.
Captcha: “you Bass” (I wonder why that B was capitalized?)
December 29th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
Your logic seems to know no bounds.
If expressing yourself was taboo none of us would be posting… There is nothing wrong with doing so but when it is mostly nonsense and political ideology don’t expect a ‘free pass’. Short, sweet, and to the point is much better then banter. Delibertiy short is neither ignorance or evasiveness; it is density over fluff. Politicians often spin simple questions into long ambigious answers due to ignorance, evasiveness, or a combination of both.
Clearly I don’t bottle everthing up and I have no idea what you think the connection is with regards to where I’m from. Particularly since you don’ have a clue where that is. I do lurk though as I ussually have better things to do then debate social economic ideology with strangers on a real estate blog. Go figure!
December 29th, 2009 at 8:13 pm
There is no harm or loss in making your points clear. I find brevity to be a gateway to endless misunderstandings, you don’t set rules on communication. That’s just asinine.
As you have discovered, I also observe moments to keep it simple.
But now you see, I’ve proven that it isn’t how much I said, as much as it is what I said that got you to mention it in the first place. Yet even though you disagreed, you chose to pick that of all things.
Strange isn’t it? That embodies of some of the flawed reasoning people use nowadays. The connection is that where I come from and who I speak with, going into detail isn’t a technical foul.
December 30th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
So what happens, if all the expiring listings decide to wait six months or a year before trying again?
December 31st, 2009 at 8:49 am
Ryan, if inventory went down to 500 next summer, 1/3 of ‘09 inventory and an even smaller fraction of the ‘08 numbers, how do you conclude there will be only 1-3% upward price pressure? Are you assuming downpayment/amortization changes? It seems most are predicting upward pressure this spring/summer up to 10%.
January 1st, 2010 at 11:38 am
The month of December closed with 211 residential sales, up from 161 last December. The average sale price came in at $291,554, up from $266,411 for December of 2008. The median sale price of a residential property in Saskatoon increased by roughly the same percentage climbing from 249,000 last December to $277,000 this December.
The 3-month average selling price for 2009 is $280,739, up just slightly from $277,895 a year ago.
As of this morning, and following the expiration of 101 MLS listings since December 25, active residential listings are at 619 units, their lowest level since March of 2008.
January 2nd, 2010 at 11:59 am
Jeremy, I expect interest rates to rise shortly after June. Probably near 2 full points by year end. With housing prices already high it’ll put a damper on upward pressure.
January 2nd, 2010 at 12:01 pm
400-600 homes is also Saskatoon’s normal market.