And really, crashing oil, forestry, uranium and farming are kind of beyond Wall’s control.

Let’s hope he holds the line on other raises – without spiting all the other health professionals who are in more demand than nurses, and reasonably expect 35% too! (doctors, pharmacists, physical therapists, technologists in hospital, etc.)

Right now im just doing as much as I can into the TSX 60 index if I have more money than my goal amount into TSX 60 I was looking at BMO, RY, TD and Riocan. Im only taking small positions just incase things get worse from here. Luckily Brad Wall a man who I admire and trust planned perfectly for this downturn and you will see Saskatchewan be the promised land for many. Not only in real estate but in the job market as well. Happy Belated Christmas every1!

Cool story. Lots of exciting stuff happening in new home construction. It will be interesting to see what kinds of technologies are used in “Rosewood” which is supposed to be Saskatoon’s first “green” subdivision.

“Heat-exchange ventilation systems” are used here, but they’re generally optional and obviously don’t work as efficiently as the ones in this story.

I apologize, I didn’t intend to mis-state anything- all that turkey is affecting my reading comprehension abilities, perhaps.

“Any idea what the base cost is to build a house in Germany compared to a similar house in Saskatoon/Canada? I have heard that it’s significantly higher.”

I honestly don’t know the details. You may very well be right. It makes sense that if the materials are not readily available here, the cost would be higher.

This link is to the German website, which has some cost information (with costs in DM and Euros) if you’re interested:

http://www.passiv.de/

As it turns out, there is a similar institute in the US (based in Illinois, I believe). They seem to approximate that the upfront cost would be in the order of 10% higher than traditional construction:

http://www.passivehouse.us/passiveHouse/FAQ.html

“Still, would sure be nice to see it as an option. I’m sure that some people would be willing to pay more up front for lower long-term costs.”

I completely agree. I’m one of those people.

“IN GERMANY (emphasis mine), passive houses cost only about 5 to 7 percent more to build than conventional houses.”

Any idea what the base cost is to build a house in Germany compared to a similar house in Saskatoon/Canada? I have heard that it’s significantly higher.

The article also states plainly that building similar houses in the USA (and, I assume, in Canada) is likely to be more expensive:

“… the sophisticated windows and heat-exchange ventilation systems needed to make passive houses work properly are not readily available in the United States. So the construction of passive houses in the United States, at least initially, is likely to entail a higher price differential.”

They also talk about the lack of ventilation systems in USAian houses… but maybe Canadian houses are built slightly differently?

Still, would sure be nice to see it as an option. I’m sure that some people would be willing to pay more up front for lower long-term costs.

I noticed this in a NYT article and thought it was really interesting:

No Furnaces but Heat Aplenty in ‘Passive Houses’

http://tinyurl.com/8xk2×2

DARMSTADT, Germany — From the outside, there is nothing unusual about the stylish new gray and orange row houses in the Kranichstein District, with wreaths on the doors and Christmas lights twinkling through a freezing drizzle. But these houses are part of a revolution in building design: There are no drafts, no cold tile floors, no snuggling under blankets until the furnace kicks in. There is, in fact, no furnace.

Apparently these types of houses only cost 5-7% more to build than traditional houses. Is anyone aware of a company that offers anything similar in Canada?

for the last 18 or 19 years from the bench site

puts all our “growth” in perspective

“84 sales needed to equal previous worst total sales Aug-Dec (1075, 2004)273 sales needed to equal Aug-Dec median sales (1264)” touche bookrat, down turn is here

Local Media spins 3 rd best job creation in Canada, and wage growth that still trails Alberta (and Nova Scotia) to again come in at 3 rd best, as well as current wages at # 4 (out of 10) behind Alberta, BC and Ontario. With Alberta continuing to spread the wage gap (with lower taxes and house prices on the way down) # 3 or # 4 out of 10 sure sounds pretty average. A 0.6% wage increase above inflation? Big deal. Not exactly “boom” worthy. And this is BEFORE the layoffs in Uranium and Potash recently announced.

http://www.leaderpost.com/business/Wages+numbers+Saskatchewan+continue+climb/1105902/story.html

Not sure # 3 or # 4 in a recession is anything to be proud of.

And I too find it funny that Flaherty and Harper go from promising NO deficit, to $30 Billion in a few short months… kind of like the Leader Post, either dishonest, or really just a bit slower than the rest of us. I guess I have to hope for a dishonest government, over an incompetent one during this recession!

I think we will be getting our extended warranties from the Feds in the future. All I know is i’m not happy our tax dollars are going towards GM/Chrysler. I get this feeling that these car companies will be in the exact same shape at the end of March and we will be giving them more money then. The US bailout is also not the first time the Feds have given them free money either. (yeah, it’s not supposed to be free but they’ll never recover it).

Armoth,

Any good tips out there? I see some stocks getting even more attractive out there but anything commercial real estate is getting scary. That XRE had the dividend cut by 40% today. I may hold off on this one for a while.

I am looking at oil stocks too but i believe BQI needs to be invested with USD.

Hundreds, if not thousands of of auto dealerships will fail. They will fail because they over-expanded in response to fake economic signals coming from the Fed, just as the auto manufacturers did and the housing industry did.

Housing purchases that could have and should have taken place over a period of a couple of decades were crammed into a few short years as lending standards dropped to keep the Ponzi scheme going. Flush with the feeling of fake prosperity from rising home prices, consumers bought cars, trucks, and SUVs with the same reckless abandon as they bought houses.

And just a few months ago everything was fine according to this guy?

Nobody really knows what is going to really happen in the next few years, but I will go out on a limb and say my future kids will pay more taxes than I do. This will be the result of the increase in our national debt due to all of the upcoming bailouts, stimulus and deficit spending we will see our government put forth.

For those interested in reading the entire “Provincial Economic Outlook” from TD Economics.

http://www.td.com/economics/qef/prov1208.pdf

Interesting that TD is predicting an 8% price decline for homes in Saskatchewan, below the predicted loss of 10% nationally.

http://tinyurl.com/9r4cqz

OTTAWA – Virtually all provinces will see their economies shrink next year, with Ontario and Alberta suffering a near two per cent contraction and with only Saskatchewan posting any growth at all, and even that just a marginal 0.6%, a major Canadian bank forecast Tuesday.

“As Canada slides into recession, no region will be immune, TD Bank warned, adding that promised government stimulus can cushion the fall into recession but can’t stop it.

For homeowners, there’s more bad news, however, with home prices projected to fall more than 10% next year, on top of this year’s 2.1% dip, and then edging up by just 0.5% in 2010. Provincially, the steepest drops in home prices next year will be 15.6% in British Columbia and 14.6% in Alberta.”

Is the “promised government stimulus” yet to be announced, or did I miss it?

Thank you for the feedback.

Bookrat,

“Anyway, I concede my prediction being wrong just as gracefully as Norm did … although Norm can’t exactly say that he was ‘right’ either, since I don’t recall hearing a prediction from him. ”

I don’t find much joy in being right. Even less in being wrong. These month to month guesses are noting but a crap shoot.

“August-December”

How long did you have to crunch numbers to come up with the worst possible scenario?

“One of us is missing something, or one of us needs to re-take math…”

Yes, you are missing something. Your math skills are fine, and so are mine. We can both agree that those numbers don’t total 131.

The “Week in review” specifically deals with single-family homes and condominium sales. As of the close of business Friday there were exactly 125 condo and SF sales. 131 is for the “total residential” unit sales which includes duplexes, semi-detached dwellings, mobile dwellings and vacant lots. All of the monthly numbers that you are comparing represent “total residential unit sales.” Today, total residential sales for December come in at 146. The MLS is closed for the balance of the week so 15 sales will be all she wrote for this week, but we’ll probably have quite a few reported over the last three days of the month. We only need 12 more units to make it the “second best December on record.”

“$384k average sale price on 6 houses in area 3? That *definitely* pulled the numbers up. That’s the highest weekly average for this area EVER, obliterating the previous high-water mark of $348k … and no comment as to why? What gives?”

Two condo sales on Spadina, one at $595K and another at $365K. SF’s at $435K, $370K, $350K. One condo at $210K.

I’m telling you man, this market is really taking off. If you’re thinking of buying, you best get on it before we hit that “fevered pitch.” Mike wouldn’t have said it if it were not true.

“Norm I *really* wish you had an ‘edit’ function.”

I also wish I had an edit function but I don’t know how to build one.

I’m wondering about two things:

#1:

“Total residential unit sales to date in December finished the week at 131…”

One of us is missing something, or one of us needs to re-take math…

Dec 01-05: 34

Dec 08-12: 45

Dec 15-21: 46

How do you mane 34 + 45 + 46 = 131?

#2: $384k average sale price on 6 houses in area 3? That *definitely* pulled the numbers up. That’s the highest weekly average for this area EVER, obliterating the previous high-water mark of $348k … and no comment as to why? What gives — someone buy up a whole block of Whiteswan Drive?

“I think that November was shortchanged a little by the way the business days fell on the calendar this year, but maybe it’ll help the December numbers? Either way, I will now go on record as predicting in December sales in the 120s… or lower (ouch).”

Well, here it is just ending the 3rd sales week of the month, and already 125 sales. That’s pretty darn good so far… and I wonder, *did* December benefit from November being shortchanged?

Anyway, I concede my prediction being wrong just as gracefully as Norm did … although Norm can’t exactly say that he was ‘right’ either, since I don’t recall hearing a prediction from him.

I’ll leave you with a couple more numbers to wrap your minds around. All numbers are using 2004-2008 aggregate data.

2 sales needed to beat worst previous Dec sales(127, 2004)

30 sales needed to beat median (155)

14 sales needed reach 1000 total sales Aug-Dec

84 sales needed to equal previous worst total sales Aug-Dec (1075, 2004)

273 sales needed to equal Aug-Dec median sales (1264)

I’ll go out on a real sturdy limb and say that we’re not gonna make that Aug-Dec median. The limb marked ‘not gonna beat previous worse’ looks pretty sturdy, but I’m not getting fooled twice.

Merry Christmas to all…

Rich Mundle

Interesting that you mentioned this.

I moved back home (to Saskatoon) from Calgary about 2 years ago and accepted a 40% increase in annual income. And I had to fight for my position in Calgary.

I am currently looking to upgrade but unsure of the market conditions and disappointed by the quality of inventory in Saskatoon right now. Lot’s of listings, but so many of them are on busy streets or need extensive upgrading.

Norm . . . love the reporting. Thanks!

I am in the process of relocating from Edmonton to Saskatoon, and I noticed the same trends. And yeah, I would agree that the same quality house is listed higher in Saskatoon then Edmonton.

Fortunately I will be making more in Saskatoon. But then there is the taxes: income tax, PST, and property tax are all higher!

Anyway, I’m hoping that the prices are going to come down 10% or so and I will buy in the fall. Hopefully finding a place to rent (3-4 bdrm house) won’t be that hard to find.

I agree with you 100% that Edmonton is a lot more attractive place to live right now than Saskatoon. It has nice people, a vibrant arts scene, lots of downtown amenities, higher wages, and a much more affordable cost of living. I foolishly used to be very pro-Saskatchewan, and never would have dreamed of joining the leagues of my peers who migrated to Albert right out of school, but after living there for about six months now, I can honestly say that this was one of the biggest mistakes I have made in my life. Looking back I am now thankful for the Sask-a-boom and its associated cost of living increases. Had it not been for rents almost doubling in the period of two years, I wouldn’t have left to find a better job, better living accomodations, and most of all, a better quality of life in Edmonton.

Mike,

That ad is comedy gold.

That’s quite a pitch you dug up there. Well, you never know.

Need an agent you can trust?

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Here is what I’ve seen:

Edmonton price increase over 1,2,3,4 years = -2,32,70,84% as opposed to the higher

Saskatoon price increase over 1,2,3,4 years = 24,79,99,117%.. Is Sask justified to be more expensive than Alberta? Your wages are lower, am I missing something?