Saskatoon real estate: Week in review (April 7-11 2008)
A total of 215 new residential property listings pushed Saskatoon real estate inventory to its highest level since October 2005 this past week. Active listings in the residential category now sit at 619 properties, up from 543 last week, and substantially higher than the 254 homes, which were available during the same week last year. 379 of the available properties are single-family homes (houses) and 182 are condominiums. An additional 63 homes are showing as conditionally sold.
There was also a pretty good drop in unit sales compared to the same week last year when 109 homes traded hands. By this time last year, weekly sales had crossed the 100-unit mark three times (houses and condos only). That’s something we haven’t seen yet this year and it’s certainly an indication that demand is starting to drop. Whether or not those two trends continue is anybody’s guess at this time but there’s no question that buyers are facing less competition on the ground, or that they have substantially more options this spring.
The most telling number is the percentage of homes that are selling above the asking price. While up a smidge from last week to 40% it remains well below the 68% that we saw during the same week last year. Higher inventory levels should continue to pressure that number down in the weeks ahead.
Still, the average selling price if a Saskatoon home remained towards its peak for any given week at $317,244.
Notable sales
- Spiffy Dundonald four-level split (1000’) with a double detached garage sells for $344,000.
- Parkridge four-level split (935’), no garage goes just above $310,000.
See a Google map displaying the boundaries of Saskatoon real estate “areas” here
Data collection and calculation for our statistical reports
I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.
Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.
Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate
There's 51 Comments So Far
May 14th, 2009 at 11:00 am
Lets keep those inventories rising!! yeah yeah!!
May 14th, 2009 at 11:00 am
What about affordable condos in decent areas (1 and 2)that are priced under 230,000? Don’t they still look like a bargain compared to single family homes? The inventory for condos in area 1 and 2 under that price range is still fairly low. I see room to grow in that market, at least till the end of summer.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:01 am
Funny how overbid percentage is still up with so many properties on the market.Seems like buyers are still being aggressive over the prime properties that are showing well.
Hey Norm,
are you still seeing the lack of conditions?
Or has that insanity finally stopped?
May 14th, 2009 at 11:01 am
It the realors that are driving the over bid price not the purchaser! I’m sure they’re still telling all their clients, “You have to over bid if you want this place” a bunch a bull$h*t!!! They just want to make more commission and probably as much as possible because I believe they are seeing that sales may be slowing in near future
May 14th, 2009 at 11:02 am
Mike,
I’m not sure I’d call these units a bargain at an average of $265 per square foot. Perhaps I’m wrong.
C White,
It’s a heck of a lot smaller (percent overbid) than it was last year at this time and I’m pretty sure we’ll see it decrease fairly quickly. These “delayed presentation of offers” will come to an end fairly quickly with inventory levels coming up so quickly. Still seeing the odd unconditional sale but they’re already fairly rare. Over the past few weeks, we’re seeing 60-70 conditional sales against 80-90 sales.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:02 am
Having a bigger inventory is good but the price just seems to climb. An average price of 310k this month? Even though I mentioned this price in the fall when I first starting posting, and gave some reasons, I still find it hard to believe it has come up so much. Even in the hood prices are high. This is an area of alot of rentals. I can’t see how someone can cash flow a property there at the moment.
Mike L.,
condos are just boxes in a bigger box. The only reason I see people buying condos at the moment is that they are scared of forever being left out of the market. The thing is, if this situation reverses there will be people stuck in those condos for a longer time than they imagined. $265 a sq ft for a big shoe box. Great deal. ( shoes included)
May 14th, 2009 at 11:05 am
Yeehaw!
Norm/George,
I agree, condos are certainly not a steal of a deal! I hope prices begin to soften in the next month or two.
George,
Although Calgary has a tonne of inventory their prices are still climbing somewhat – sellers are trying to hold out because they don’t want to sell for less than they could have made 8 months ago. I suspect we’ll probably see prices increase slightly over the next couple months before seeing a decline.
Wesco,
I think the overbid phenomenom is due to a mix of people still thinking the market is going to “take-off” like CMHC predicted, and some realtors may be trying to milk the last of the panic sales for all they’re worth. (No offence Norm, I said “some” not all)
May 14th, 2009 at 11:07 am
I wouldn’t count on prices softening in the next month or two … as per reasons stated previously by myself and others…
Interesting Globe article from Saturday:
A lot more than wheat
Potash Corp. may be the darling of the stock market, but Saskatchewan is riding more than just soaring commodities prices. Smart government policy and a new entrepreneurial spirit is transforming the province’s economy – and some say the boom has just begun
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080412.RCOVER12/TPStory/?query=saskatchewan
May 14th, 2009 at 11:08 am
Callum,
I agree that the boom has just begun (Long term). Short term however, this market should start to take a turn in the next couple of months. Look for what’s happening in the Edmonton market for the trend that will happen here. When Edmonton starts to go back up in price and inventories start to drop there, you can bet we’ll be about 1 year behind. It was in June of last year when Edmonton started to turn. I’d bet that’ll be the tipping month here too.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:09 am
Yep, unless wages take a turn for the better I don’t think home prices will sustain. We should follow the Edmonton trend. I don’t deny SK’s economy is shaping up nicely.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:10 am
Well obviously I am not a believer in these prices but that is a long-term trend. In the medium term, the next year, I wouldn’t be surprised if prices keep climbing. I don’t think it’s right, I don’t think it makes sense, but that is what I think will happen. Edmonton saw substantial price increases last year (35%) despite a sale to listing ratio of 1/2 and subsequent large increases in inventory. It just doesn’t seem to matter. Also, when you compare to many other cities in Canada, we are still relatively cheap. Vancouver, at the extreme of insanity, has an average price of $560K last I checked. Certainly wages are not more than double to compensate and even if they were, taxes would prevent real income from doubling. Not to say that prices should ever approach Vancouver’s but as far as the limits of affordability go, we are NOT there yet. My personal opinion is the market keeps going until interest rates spike (which I see happening in 1 to 2 years) or the commodities boom dies off.
I would agree with Wesco that the realtors play a small hand in the over-bidding. In my experience ealtors will often push you to put in a higher bid than you suggest, telling you that you won’t get the house with such a low bid. You just have to ignore them and not all people are up to that. I disagree with Wesco on their motivations though, it’s not for the higher commission so much as to guarantee the commission. The higher the bid, the more likely the sale is to go through and the more likely they are to get paid. The way the commission structure works, an extra 20 or 30K really doesn’t add that much commission.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:11 am
Norm,
That’s it! You guys in Saskatoon have just got to stop copying Vancouver. You are hurting our image. .>)
Here’s a litte gossip for yah. While standing around at another agent’s Open house it was shared that one of our very respected leading Realtors who is a listing machine, has stopped taking listings. Reason: with two assistants the inventory has now caused a servicing problem and so until inventory is reduced no more listings will be taken. What the hell you say!
I don’t know about you but during my time on the street this is a first. We are getting bloated with
listings. Can very serious price reductions be far behind?
Leading the way on the coast. BTW just to be clear. No! – I’m not being cranky .>(
May 14th, 2009 at 11:11 am
I believe the Vancouver figure includes condominiums and is for Greater Vancouver – including far out suburbs such as Surrey, Delta, Maple Ridge, Langley etc. etc. Vancouver City would be higher. My gut feeling is that the increases in real estate pricing in Saskatoon will slow down but increase they will. The prices are still nowhere near BC cities even after your big increases. In Victoria, for example, the lease expensive house in a neighbourhood similar to Riversdale would go for $400,000 or so.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:16 am
I’d say the prices shouldn’t be anywhere near those in Vancouver or Victoria, given the size of the town and its economy!
My family owns in Vancouver, Larry, but I still hope you’re right. Vancouver’s RE prices have always been extreme, but now they’ve gone completely insane, and it’s having a very bad effect on the city. Vancouver isn’t as bad as San Francisco or New York, but those are the only places that beat it.
The AVERAGE detached house in GVRD — that is, the district as a whole — is about 900,000: almost a million.
That amount will get you a cheaply built, ordinary house on the east side, a great house but not a mansion out in the suburbs, but it’ll buy you a small WWII bungalow on the West side, and a GARAGE in West Van.
No one here wants Vancouver prices: they cost 30,000 a year in taxes alone.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:17 am
Larry,
I read your post on Vancouver entering a “black hole.” Sounds pretty bleak. And no, I’ve never heard of an agent who wouldn’t take a listing. I could imagine that you might get a bit fussier about what you’d agree to take though for sure. How many active listings do you guys have right now?
May 14th, 2009 at 11:17 am
Vancouver? Why is anyone comparing Saskatoon to Vancouver? We don’t have the ocean, we can’t golf all year long and we don’t have rich Asian immigrants moving here in droves…..
Also SomethingDoesntAddUp, I totally agree with you on the commission statement. The realtor’s want to make the money. But if these trends continue I think that realtor’s will be in tough in the future.
Norm,
Do you know how many realtor’s there are in the city and also how much of an increase in realtor’s there has been in Saskatoon over the last 2 tears?
May 14th, 2009 at 11:18 am
Heather;
Here in Calgary it may look statistically like the average price keeps rising along with inventories. It is probably more that the sales mix has moved up rather than actrosss the board.
Last I heard the entry level market was very slow here.
The problem with reducing prices is someone has to blink first and not many seem willing to do that. If I can find someone willing to reduce their price so I can accomplish my ends then I can reduce my price … it’s really just a number.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:18 am
Talking about reduced sale price. My brother has already reduced his house in Edmonton twice in the last 4 months. He started at $379,900, then went down to $369,900 and now hes trying to get rid of it at $355,900, and he’s only had about 5 different people look at it since it’s been on the market (5 months). And only a year and half ago the exact same house right across the street sold for $440,000 in less than 2 weeks. Now thats drastic drops!!!
May 14th, 2009 at 11:19 am
Norm:
Not bleak – just a change of bath water. For that circumstance a valid one I feel. Most of that agents listings are $1M plus so client expectations require more attention. Plus in this part of town lock boxes are not used so showings take up a serious part of your 18 hour day.
Active listings Vancouver to 03/08 all areas 14,440, about 2000 more than last year same time. This is I think, changing to a buyers market. The price reduction arrows on that post you refer to are telling the story. It’s coming to your neighbourhood soon as the affordability factor kicks in.
WesCo:
Unfortunately we don’t have stats that show how many many new Canadian friends influence our market. Although the ability to speak Mandarin is definitely an asset one I sadly admit, I don’t have. But my friends do and they great at helping me keep everything on track. All I know is Nee-How (hello) and Shea-Shea (thank you)[spelling is a guess].
For purpose of clarity and fun, the comparison twix Sask and Van was strictly the parallel activity of increased listings, prices etc. between the two markets.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:23 am
WesCo I forgot to add that unlike Vancouver’s ocean, golf, fabulous skiing, a skytrain beautiful women and of course the Olympics – in Saskatoon you do have great sunrises and sunsets, fabulous mosquitoes, really cold winters and great Realtors like Norm. .>) Nuff said!
May 14th, 2009 at 11:24 am
Well Saskatoon also has PLENTY of beautiful women, I love the University girls, good good farm girls!!
But i’ll pass on the mosquito’s and cold weather thanks.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:25 am
Wesco,
388 agents at the end of Feb, up from 347 a year before, up from 331 a year before that.
Ken,
It sounds like there are a lot of sellers “blinking” in Edmonton and Vancouver. Almost every market has some motivated sellers who will do what needs to be done to get a sale.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:27 am
Norm;
Yes I had a look at some mls listings this A.M. and it does look like we may be starting to see the tip of the “price reduced” ice berg here too.
I think it will get worse before it gets better particularly in the entry level market. There has to be some sense of affordability restored so buyers at that level can have some confidence.
I don’t know which market is harder to second guess; accelerating or decelerating.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:29 am
Something,
Saying Saskatoon is still cheaper than Vancouver is like saying Humbolt is still cheaper than Saskatoon. When is Humbolt going to catch up? You can’t make that comparison, Saskatoon will NEVER be Vancouver. And if Saskatoon is still relatively cheap, then so is Calgary. We’re basically sitting at the same affordability.
Wesco,
That’s vveerrryyy interesting! It sucks for your brother, but when he sells he will still have made a small fortune, right? (Unless he only moved in a year or two ago)
May 14th, 2009 at 11:30 am
There is no afford ability in Saskatoon anymore. And yes my brother will still make a mint selling at that price. He bought the house for $179,900 five years ago, so he’s not worried about the cash just worried about getting rid of it at all!! LOL!!
May 14th, 2009 at 11:32 am
Norm,
I had an afterthought… a few people have come on here saying Calgary/Edmonton residents are reducing their sales price for less than what they could have sold it for a year ago. Might the average sale price still be rising because there’s a larger number of upper-class homes selling, and not a lot of entry level sales? Maybe a lot of first time home buyers are waiting for prices to drop before buying in?
May 14th, 2009 at 11:33 am
Heather,
How do we know that the averages are still rising in those areas?
May 14th, 2009 at 11:33 am
All,
What very few people (Heather D being the exception) seemed to pick up on was that I was ONLY comparing Vancouver to point out that we are not at the limit of affordability. I am NOT trying to suggest prices should be the same as Vancouver, I was merely saying that as far as affordability goes we could certainly see higher prices. I agree that Vancouver is a much nicer city but it’s really not relevant as far as people’s economic ability to make a mortgage payment.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:34 am
I believe Saskatchewan has more golf courses per capita than anywhere else in Canada.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:35 am
Norm,
A few bloggers on here keep saying the average sale price in Calgary continues to rise – I just took their word for it. Is it not?
Something,
I love being singled out, it thrills me. Why bother even bringing it up as a comparison, only to say that you’re not comparing?! Vancouver isn’t at the limit of it’s affordability either. That being said, I think both Vancouver and Saskatoon markets are overpriced and need recession badly. There is no reason for any place in Canada to be so unaffordable.
I’ll also have to disagree that Vancouver is the nicer city, but that’s why I’m here and not over there. I appreciate that I can walk around downtown without coming across a plethora of heroine and meth addicts.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:35 am
Heather,
I don’t know. I have a friend who moved to Calgary eight or nine months ago. He tells me his house is worth less than he paid for it then.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:35 am
I think Calgarys average price are going down. Te confusion might be that they are promoting the median price still going up. The two arent the same.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:36 am
analytical,
Thanks. I’ve heard that activity remains strong in upper end housing but that properties at the entry level is very weak. This could also contribute to a somewhat skewed average. I have emailed a colleague to see if I can get my hand on some actual numbers and I’ll post them here if he’s able to provide them.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:36 am
Here’s a link to Bob Truman’s Site.
http://www.bobtruman.com/SFH_Monthly_Summaries/page_1869385.html
Monthly average, median, DOM, etc.
Also http://www.creb.com is the Calgary Realestate Association.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:37 am
Hey Norm,
I am just curious, of the 82 properties that sold last week how many were condos?
Thanks
May 14th, 2009 at 11:37 am
Neil,
Thanks. Not sure why I wouldn’t have thought of that myself since I have Bob in my blogroll.
Carl,
23.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:37 am
Thanks Norm,
I remember a while back, you mentioned that you see the condo market to be the most vulnerable. Do you the number of condos purchased going down? Do you still feel this way?
Thanks
May 14th, 2009 at 11:39 am
A comment on the Edmonton market:
Our house was appraised at $459,900 in May 2007. It sold recently for $400,000.
That’s more than a 10% decrease in price. Ouch!!
May 14th, 2009 at 11:40 am
Carl,
At the time, condos were up substantially more than houses. I think we’ve seen that gap close a fair bit over the last six months. I was also concerned about a flood of conversion units coming back onto the market but so far most of those units have been sold. It will be interesting to see what happens if inventory continues to grow.
edmontonhomeowner,
Ouch indeed! What are you hearing about values in Calgary? Averages and median prices seem to suggest rising values but I’m hearing a different story from agents.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:40 am
Heather D,
Let’s get this straight, I am comparing vancouver to saskatoon but only on the affordability issue. People are making all kinds of claims and purporting numerous arguments for why Saskatoon is / isn’t overpriced, affordability being just 1 of those numerous arguments and that is the only argument I am addressing here. Basically I’m decomposing the argument down to 1 item at a time as it’s the only way to find truth in the whole mess. From that viewpoint, I think that Saskatoon is not maxed out and as such this should not be used as an argument. There are many other fine arguments for why Saskatoon is overpriced, just not affordability.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Something,
We’ll have to agree to disagree on affordability.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:42 am
In regards to Calgary:
I agree that even though the average or median selling price in Calgary is going up the value of a home is actually going down.
I sold my starter home in Calgary last February. It was lucky timing because it was one of only a handful in our neighbourhood for sale and it sold within a few hours for full asking. If the family that bought our home were to sell it today it would be listed for about 25k less and would more than likely be on the market for weeks or possibly months.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:43 am
Kaley,
Thanks for that. I mentioned in another post that my former colleague, now working in Calgary has a friend who moved into a new home out there last summer. He says that another one just like it, directly across the street just sold for $140K less than his friend paid last year.
He also tells me that there is no end to the “entry-level” homes which are for sale right now.
Appreciate your point of view.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:43 am
Norm,
I can tell you a bit of what I’ve seen in the past year in Calgary:
I have noticed that there is a massive excess inventory there and “for sale: signs seem to be on 1 out of 5 people’s lawns in some neighborhoods.
I know a couple who just bought a gorgeous new 1900 sq foot two-story home from a builder for $410K with $50K of upgrades thrown in to make the sale.
(Seems like a steal of a deal compared to Saskatoon prices right now.)
I also have a friend there who has mentioned that identical houses to hers are selling at at least 50K below what she paid for hers.
Prices are not going up there, from any angle I have seen.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:44 am
If thebench.ca is right (I didn’t notice this mentioned here) prices in Saskatoon are $30,000 MORE THAN EDMONTON? right now. This has to be over inflated. I mean average wages in Edmonton are still above those in Saskatoon. And Edmonton is growing rapidly, and has been for a while, in spite of DECLINING house prices there?! I read some where else that of 600 houses for sale in Saskatoon, 200 + are vacant! I think the whole thing smacks of speculation. A crash is inevitable/just starting? A quick search shows homes that are reduced in price and there are way more homes available now than just a month ago. Saskatoon houses are too expensive to be justified right now.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:44 am
Norm – Are there really that many more places available than over the past few years? I still live in my parents’ home and am scared to consider buying a place if I know there’s a chance that when I sell it in a few years, it’s might decrease by more than the amount I would have put in with a 40 year mortage. Is this increase in supply just a blip or an indicator of things to come? Without some re-assurance, I’m thinking it’s a pretty good time to just stay at home for a few more years?
May 14th, 2009 at 11:45 am
Sumeer,
Current inventory levels are higher than they’ve been since about October, 2005. That said, they had been declining to ridiculously low levels since then. From that point backwards, normal levels of inventory would be 600-900 listings, and even at those levels prices would be rising, though much more moderately.
I do see a trend towards higher inventory levels and there’s no doubt that demand is dropping off. This is likely to lead to a more stable price environment and it’s not impossible that prices could drop depending on how much of a spread develops between demand and the supply.
I feel that it’s unlikely that prices will push much higher in the short term, but I also felt very confident of that last fall. Many of my colleagues were feeling the same way. “It’s not even possible that what happened in 2007 could happen again,” was the most common thinking. Oops!
It’s hard for me to offer you the re-assurance you’re looking for. I can’t confidently say that “you’ll be fine” on resale if you buy now. If you were sitting in front of me ready to sign an offer, I’d probably say something similar to what I asked my most recent buyer client, “You realize that you may be buying at the peak?”
If I were you, I don’t think I’d be in a big rush right now. I’m inclined to think that things are likely to improve some for buyers in the months ahead. The current market is showing signs of weakness given the fact that it’s spring. I don’t think that the bottom is going to fall out but if the current trend continues it’s possible that there may actually be some “deals” out there as we move into the summer months.
You are probably living under the most affordable conditions which you will ever live in. This is actually much cooler than it seems right now.
Why not start paying your 40 year mortgage, property taxes, utilities, etc (minus whatever you might have to pay mom and dad) into an investment account? You’ll have an opportunity to see what it feels like to carry those bills, yet you’ll have an easy out if it’s not manageable. If it works for you, you’ll build equity pretty darned quickly.
If you do buy, be certain that you want to be in Saskatoon for at least five years. Buy something that will meet your needs for at least that period of time. Think ahead and be sure that you could afford to renew your mortgage a few points higher than today’s rates.
Good luck.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:45 am
Isn’t Norm the best realtor?
Norm I want to buy my mom a condo in Saskatoon, will you help me when the time comes?
However, I have to disagree on one point: no slow down this summer for Saskatoon prices.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:46 am
No slowdown for prices? Didn’t prices drop 11% last August in Saskatoon before picking up? I know myself that I will be looking elsewhere to go when I’m done school so I can afford a house, whether that’s Winnipeg, Edmonton or even Regina, which is basically the same city but with far cheaper prices.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:47 am
I’ve been wrong before. Just putting it down in writing and will revisit this page in 6 months to gloat or tuck in my tail.
I buy cash-flowing rental properties. My business plan assumes only inflation-based increases of 5-6% per year (the REAL inflation rate). Rates of return larger than that are gravy, lower than that are planned for.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:48 am
callum,
“Norm I want to buy my mom a condo in Saskatoon, will you help me when the time comes?”
Thanks. As long as it’s actually for your mother and not some evil plan to invest.
You know where to find me.