Residential sales in the Saskatoon real estate market resumed a fairly modest pace this week with 92 single-family homes (houses) and condos reported sold to the Saskatoon MLS, down from 117 last week, even further off of the 123 that sold during the same week last year, but still well above the weekly average year to date. An additional 60 properties in the same two categories were reported as conditionally sold.
New listings on the Saskatoon Multiple Listing Service saw their biggest week since I started recording the weekly numbers back in mid-February of 2007. A total of 249 residential properties were introduced to the market including 159 single-family homes and 69 condominiums. This week’s new listings pushed residential inventory to 844 properties including 524 single-family homes and 241 condominiums.
Overbidding fell out of fashion in a serious way. Only 18% of Saskatoon homes sold managed a price that was above list and a full 70% actually sold below the asking price. That’s only half as many as we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks. Overbid activity was weakest in Area 1 which pretty consistently has the highest average selling prices, and strongest in Area 5 where the percentage of homes selling above asking price was closer to $30%.
The average selling price of a Saskatoon home inched up from last week to $290,346, but still remained well below the $300K plus numbers we had seen the three weeks prior. Average sale prices were below average asking prices in all areas except area 5.
Active buyers are relieved to have a little more time to think about homes they’ve seen, and they have some confidence that something else will come along soon if this one sells while they’re thinking. They’re no longer fearful that they might have to pay more if they wait. This is a welcome and healthy development. It feels good to be back to reasonable mindsets.
Sellers will need to take greater care in pricing their homes in the weeks ahead. The standard practice of reviewing recent sales and slapping on an extra $10,000 is bound to leave you waiting. For the first time in quite some time, the little things matter. So, price it right, paint up that front door, and scrub the place clean. Your prospective buyer has a fair number of homes to choose from.
Geographic boundaries of “areas” defined
Process of data collection and calculation
I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. Feel free to drop me an email.
Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate
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{ 88 comments… read them below or add one }
NORM, what do you actually think is going to happen in the real estate market. I would love things to stabilize or even for there to be a slight correction. It’s a possible 30-40% blood in the streets crash that bothers me.
How do you think the next year will go?
David,
I think that the Saskatchewan economy will continue to grow over the next couple of years. I’m feeling pretty confident that we won’t see a “30%-40% blood in the streets crash” but I won’t be surprised if we see a correction. It wouldn’t be hard for me to believe that the gains we’ve seen over the last couple of months are unsustainable. We have seen 8 weeks of pretty solid growth in active listings. During the same period of time, demand has been weakening. If the current trend continues, we could be in a buyer’s market by summer.
NORM,
First, thankyou for this blog. It has been helful. Secondly, if this blog didn’t exist, I would just enjoy my house and life would be so peaceful.
Regarding your comment, I too feel the economy may grow, but I’m not sure how much that is tied to the real estate market. Houses sky rocketed without real growth. Does this not mean they could go down even while we have growth?
In my mind, it was so easy to move to Alberta before rent and housing doubled. Now, it is even easier.
Maybe this is what that lady was basing her thoughts on:
“Saskatoon will reach a population of 400,000. It’s only a matter of time.” (Page 5, June 2000)
http://www.saskatoon.ca/org/city_planning/resources/publications/future_growth_study.pdf
This was from the “Future Growth of Saskatoon” Final Report and Recommendations (city of Saskatoon.)
Page 7 of this report shows where they wanted all those extra people to live.
I’m wondering how long they believed it would take for us to reach 400,000.
I’m always amazed how we can have predictions like “Saskatoon will reach a population of 400,000 and beyond – it is only a matter of time” and yet an increase from 202,000 to 208,000 people as of right now over 2 years leads to a doubling of house prices, inadequate infrastructure and claims of “boom” all around. Then again, if you ask the average bumpkin off the street, I’ve heard our population is nearing 250,000 to 300,000 …
The increase to well over 800 homes inventory and knowing that with most houses going below asking price, you don’t need to blindly overbid is encouraging. The numbers suggest still mainly houses, but in my area, there seems to be a few new for sale signs in front of every condo complex, and a whack load of identical townhouses for sale, increasing in number every day.
Still scary decision. Sounds like the situation is getting better so I think the best decision I can make at this time is just wait it out. Not like prices are going to go up more and bonus if they go down. Either way selection is getting better and will probably be some bargains out there as more places get on the market. And not like anyone from Alberta is going to be moving here for less coin now that our prices are more than theirs.
Nick,
I think the higher numbers you here come from people’s misinterpretation of the stats. If you include greater Saskatoon (I know it sounds silly but there are some surrounding areas such as Warman and many acreages that get lumped in on certain surveys), the number is over 230k. Add in a bs factor of 10-30% and you get 250-300k
I agree with you completely that the actual numbers are lower but that’s where the bigger numbers come from.
David,
From what level are you using as a benchmark? The all-time high weekly average of $310k (or somewhere around there), or $280k it’s averaged over the last few months?
My opinion on the possibility of a crash, and I would love to see one don’t get me wrong, is that you probably won’t see anything quite that large. Look back at historic real estate prices, all over the world, and you won’t see too many cases where prices dropped by more than 15-20%. Tokyo in the 90’s, California last and current year are certain exceptions but these markets were much more overheated than ours. Other than that it takes a pretty major economic walloping to drop prices to the degree you are implying. Perhaps a more fair comparison would be Edmonton where prices are only down, what 5%, and this after inventory build up to near 10,000. You will however, likely see some sort of correction, at least to take back some of the prices increases since January which were very speculative. Well anyways, I’m certainly not an expert but there’s my take on it. As others have pointed out, real estate prices tend to be sticky.
One last thing, if there is a serious correction in commodities, all bets are off. If you see that happening, especially in wheat, uranium, oil, potash, I would dump everything but your primary residence immediately.
Something,
You’re kidding me right in terms of Edmonton only going down 5% right? 2 years almost to the day my brothers neighbor sold the exact same house as his for $430,000 and now my brother can’t even sell his house for $350,000, the only offer he has received over four months is for $330,000 and condition being that once the people sold their home then they would buy my brothers. I think that is a little more than 5%.
In addition to this I was on flight from San Francisco 2 months ago with an appraiser in Edmonton and he told me the market had dropped 15% (and that was 2 months ago, its worse now) and now builders were actually backfilling poured foundations. So if the Edmonton market can drop that much I don’t find it unreasonable that Saskatoon can drop at least 15%.
Great stuff! Again next week I don’t think we’ll see sales numbers much over 90. 1000 listings by the end of the month. We’ve only just begun…
With foreclosures in the States up 110%, I wonder what percentage their sales prices have dropped overall?
Kenton,
I think you’re wise to wait and see. I really couldn’t see prices going up much (any) more because of the rising inventory. And IF this is the “breaking point” it would really suck buying in at the peak – that’s just extra money out of your pocket (and extra interest) towards a mortgage that could have been cheaper.
david,
There’s (almost) no way prices will crash 30-40%, but perhaps at the worst, 20%? Myself, I’d be satisfied with that. :’)
Wesco,
in order for Saskatoon to see the drops like Edmonton has, there needs to be way more inventory,plain and simple. If and when we get to 2500 listings, then we may be in the same boat as Edmonton. They have around 14,000 listings right now, with around 1700 sales per month. But builders are still going gung ho here, where in Edmonton they have slowed quite a bit. http://www.edmontonrealestateblog.com/my_weblog/2008/04/housing-starts.html
You are right about that appraiser, or the appraiser is right:) Right now the average house in Edmonton is 400k last spring it was 442k
http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html
With so many listings there, it is easy to see why prices have come down. Supply and demand. That is why I believe we need to see tonnes of listings here before there is a considerable drop. Buyers will have choice and sellers if desperate, will reduce their prices.
George,
I agree fully with everything you say, and I was basing a decrease in real estate values on the exact same principles. I’m figuring that investors are going to want to start pulling out their cash sooner than later, considering the current prices, and this will drive up the inventory in Saskatoon. Only the future can tell. (Also I don’t think there will be to much migration to Sask considering the real estate values and I definitely know there will be greator amounts of graduates leaving the province for better wages and similar housing prices in Alberta)
I disagree we need to have our house inventory increase to see a decline in prices. A lot of the work force is pretty mobile. A lot of people on the other blog are talking about how they work in Alberta and file taxes back here. As house prices elsewhere decrease and with their low taxes, I think we’ll lose people who just use Saskatoon as a home base, to Edmonton. And people can all talk about small town charm, but there are bonuses of living in a large city too, including shorter travel time to oil sands work if based out of Edmonton. That’s why four times as many people have chosen to live there. With cheaper housing elsewhere, people will be less likely to move to Saskatoon and we’ll be back to losing all our new grads to Alberta… just like 2 years ago. And apparently the most recent numbers on that CBC link say the average educated person makes 10,000 more a year in Alberta than Saskatoon.
Wesco,
I guess the numbers just depend on who you talk to or what stat you see. I was basing mine off of the average sales prices over at the Edmonton real estate blog. Norm has a link, check it out if you’d like. Do you have any links, stats, anything that can actually be validated to back up your numbers? I heard from a guy on an airplane just doesn’t count as solid evidence to me.
You’d think I heard from a guy on an airplane wouldn’t count as a stat, but that’s what all the “boom” talk was based on in the first place.
Or a news story of one family who over bid on some house, or got a decent job, or the mayor of Regina with one teacher who moved back on the news. If the mayor meeting with one resident is a photo op, why isn’t some one on a plane who can’t sell his house for near what it was a year ago newsworthy? Some guy had some buddies who moved back from Alberta and some one heard the new Walmart is going to be big.
The actual stats, including Norm’s so far show:
Edmonton’s house prices have fallen
Saskatoon’s inventory is increasing slow but steady
Saskatoon listing prices were down a bit for April
Saskatchewan economic growth is far below expected
Sask economic growth is below the rest of the west
Wages in Saskatoon are way below: Calgary/Edmonton
Wages in Saskatoon are below: Regina/Winnipeg
Houses in Saskatoon are more than Edmonton
Houses in Saskatoon are way more than Regina/Winnipeg
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/080428/d080428a.htm
http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/cp-income-stats/
http://www.royallepage.ca/CMSTemplates/AboutUs/Company/CompanyTemplate.aspx?id=1746
http://saskhouses.blogspot.com/2008/05/average-asking-prices-dip-in-april.html
If we can’t base news stories on what some guy said, then there’s no evidence of an economic boom other than growing under a whopping 3% in population in a year and a half.
And still, houses not selling in Edmonton fits with the big increase in inventory there.
And most of the “numbers” used by the “boom” predictors are just that, predictions.
Does anybody know how many owned homes are in saskatoon? Not meaning for sale – but in total. I guess – how many properties on saskatoon’s property tax roll?
Seller, the best I can do for you is the 2006 census
84,405 households in Saskatoon
“Total private dwellings occupied by usual residents”
rented or owned, but I guess ignores vacant
http://www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/data/profiles/community/Details/Page.cfm?B1=All&Code1=4711066&Code2=47&Custom=&Data=Count&Geo1=CSD&Geo2=PR&Lang=E&SearchPR=01&SearchText=Saskatoon&SearchType=Begins
Jim,
Those are some great points, but at 200+ new listings each week (and less than 1/2 of that number selling) it seems to me our inventory is rising pretty darn fast! Of course this trend needs to continue to become a buyer’s market and to see prices soften, but I’m confident it will. ;’)
Just got to get the word out about the bad economic news and all the new places coming on line. I’m always hearing about gotta get in now. People don’t realize the economy didn’t do near as good as expected and that more places are getting put up for sale than can be sold now. Get the word out, set your friends straight, and we won’t have to wait so long for everything to correct.
I would suggest the 249 new listings this past week would represent speculators trying to cash out now that the Saskatoon market has likely peaked, with both MLS and Saskhouses.com reporting lower sales and listing prices respectively this past month from earlier in the year.
Only 92 homes, on a beautiful week out, maybe means that’s how many people from Saskatoon actually buy a house in a week, minus all the speculators who are trying to get out at the top instead of waiting for prices to start falling with rising inventory and all the Albertans who realize it’s more financially prudent to stay there than buy into our inflated market.
Plenty of renters here for school are leaving now that classes are done. Should hopefully put some pressure on the revenue property owners.
Not like its hard to find a renter right now, but with all the talk of prices peaking, some savvy speculators may take their seasonal renters leaving as a sign to divest their “exceptional revenue opportunities”.
Thanks for the info. I just thought it’d help put in to perspective the percentage of total homes that are for sale. I’m not as good at digging up some of this information as some of you are lol.
“I would suggest the 249 new listings this past week would represent speculators trying to cash out now that the Saskatoon market has likely peaked,”–conrad
Perhaps, but how many more are there? 400? 1000?
I truly wish I knew how many people from Alberta bought houses here.
“There’s (almost) no way prices will crash 30-40%, but perhaps at the worst, 20%?”–Heather D.
2 years ago, there was “no way prices” would increase to what they have. A couple people have said house prices are “sticky” but in my opinion, if we had people leaving Sask for Alberta before housing was so high, what will happen now? I’m perfectly fine with stagnation for years or a 15% drop in prices, but it’s the possible doomsday crash scenario. Before, it was “we must buy now before it is too late.” It could go the other way “we must sell now before it is too late.”
And just as the speculators began this jump in prices,they could very easily begin the downfall as well. I have no idea how many of them there are, but if there are some left, I don’t see them sticking around much longer.
Gotta agree with Dave. With conversions and construction a lot of new stuff is out there. All the speculators try cashing out now that prices are dipping a bit and I think we have potential for a crash. Won’t help if everyday people start leaving for Alberta for better cash jobs now that their place here is worth enough to buy a dece place there. With investors cashing out and young people selling off and going for Alberta cash, dont think fundamentals of a slow growing economy, everyone here keeps saying only 2.8% backed up by stats can guys, can support the 50% jacked up prices from the last year.
David,
106 of the residential properties listed last week are vacant, or tenant occupied.
The ratio of all active listings is even more heavily weighted towards speculators. Of the 862 residential properties available today, 437 are vacant or tenant occupied. Just over half!
“Before, it was ‘we must buy now before it is too late.’ It could go the other way ‘we must sell now before it is too late.’
David, I have to be honest here: I hope you’re right.
David,
Anything ‘could’ happen. What’s your point? The stock market could also lose 80% of it’s value completely wiping out the entire baby boomer generation RRSP’s. If I were you I would focus on what is more likely to actually happen.
Ok Sam, what is more likely to happen then? have you noticed the amount of properties on Saskhouses.com and homespoint2 that are reduced? The reduced real estate numbers are increasing by the day.
Interesting article in the Edmonton Journal today regarding the current real estate market in the city:
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=476af5ab-d874-4da3-805f-ec424077f3c9&p=1
I wonder if Saskatoon is headed down a similar path sometime soon.
The record price of oil is affecting sales as well.
When the price of oil surges to record highs like it is doing now, more people move to Alberta. When the oil price comes down, more people move back to Saskatchewan.
Once this current oil price surge pulls back, we will see another bump up in sales here like in January and February.
The Alberta boom is clapped out and things are cooling there for various reasons, like the oil royalties, high prices and tight labour markets.
The world according to MoneySense (places to live survey)
Article in current mag, Where to invest?
1. Regina (84 overall score)
2. Saskatoon (81)
3. Winnipeg (81 – Good call Northstar, where are you, good investment Alex)
8. Edmonton (78)
11. Vancouver (77)
14. Calgary (77)
Criteria: Value, Momentum, Economy
“David,
Anything ‘could’ happen. What’s your point? The stock market could also lose 80% of it’s value completely wiping out the entire baby boomer generation RRSP’s. If I were you I would focus on what is more likely to actually happen.”–Sam
Sam,
That is exactly what I am attempting to do. And “my point” if you’ll recall was in regard to heather’s comment that there is “no way” house prices would drop 30-40%. As you yourself agree “anything could happen.” That was my exact point. Thank you for agreeing with me.
As for focusing on “what is more likely to actually happen” I have no idea what will “actually” happen.
But here is what I see:
1. A decades long trend of Saskatchewan people moving to prosperous Alberta.
This was interupted momentarily because:
2. An aggresive advertising campaign saying Saskatchewan is affordable and easy going.
3. Albertan’s buying houses here(because of #2 and because they can make money.)
4. A lot of good news about our future economy with tremendously high expectations built into them.
All of this has created:
5. Real estate price increases that have captured the attention of many.
So, the advertising campaign is gone and it wouldn’t work now anyway. We’re no longer that affordable. Are albertan’s going to buy houses here because they’re still cheap? Nope. And while our future economy might be considered booming for us, Saskatchewan, who in the past 10 years has often has negative GDP, anything in the positive is almost considered a boom.
But the 3 questions are, will this future boom create enough people moving here from elsewhere to offset the return of #1, which I can only see being magnified greatly by the fact that if people used to move to Alberta, how much more so now that housing has doubled?
And secondly, will all these people moving here do so very quickly, before enough people exit this province to go to alberta? Because if we only have people moving out and no one moving in…
And thirdly, how many people will be required for the diamonds, the potash, the oil? How many jobs and multiplier jobs will these things create? That is a question I have desparately been seeking an answer to.
The latest news from Vancouver is that inventory is hugely up from last year and even more from the year before – per unit probably far higher than Saskatoon. The price increase last year was around 11%. This year we are looking at 8% apparently and then the year after 5%. So things are slowing up over here. The BC economy is mixed. Natural gas and construction is booming. The traditionally important forestry industry is going from very bad to dreadful. Two more big pulp mills announced they are shutting down today and there are more to come. We also have had a negative 11% growth in incomes between 2000 and 2005 according to Statscan. As such, I disagree with Canadian Business that Vancouver is a good place to invest for real estate. Also, the rents here are tiny compared to the huge cost of a property. I’m surprised it would rank above Calgary.
BMO dude thinks Manitoba and Sask won’t be cooling off. Maybe we should email him a link to this blog:
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip51185
(5 min video)
BMO dude who says Sask will boom in 08 was also likely one of the idiots who was 50% over the actual 2007 growth, when we were the slowest economy in the west
And:
“The record price of oil is affecting sales as well.
When the price of oil surges to record highs like it is doing now, more people move to Alberta.”
Yeah, people moving back to Alberta is why Saskatoon’s market it cooling, i guess, I mean Edmonton has the cheaper housing, and Alberta as a whole seems to regardless of source pay $10,000 to 15,000 more, significantly more if high income …
but even with people starting to enjoy the Alberta Advantage again, Edmonton house prices are still down
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=476af5ab-d874-4da3-805f-ec424077f3c9&p=1
Interesting, we’re losing people to Edmonton, because of higher wages and cheaper housing and their prices are down
Jedi, those things that say invest in Saskatoon have to date, all been based on how cheap it was to buy a house before the 51% price increase – not so true now, and a lot of them were before we found out actual growth at 2.8% was a lot less in 2007 than the 5% everyone was telling us
Norm, here is a nice chart of new listings for Canada. It really makes plain the months where people like to list their properties. (Or actually when people like to buy properties and so when the sellers will list.)
I’m wondering if there exists any such chart for Saskatoon, or saskatchewan.
I had sort of made a chart based on your numbers, but it only goes back so far. Is there any such chart or reference?
Sorry, I forgot to provide the link for above:
http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/mls_stats.htm
David,
Thanks. I’m not aware of the existence of any such chart for Saskatoon. Perhaps I’ll look at putting one together. I do have the data.
There’s no “perfect storm” here. Prices are inflated. A month ago people were buying like crazy at those prices and demand is still strong. A 10% correction will bring that back into the market. Don’t fool yourselves into thinking the sky is falling, there will be no catastrophic crash.
Crea story on cbc this morning, also two articles in Star Phoenix, one saying building permits up here today.
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/05/06/realestate.html
“Thanks. I’m not aware of the existence of any such [listings] chart for Saskatoon. Perhaps I’ll look at putting one together. I do have the data.”–Norm.
“We have seen 8 weeks of pretty solid growth in active listings.”–Norm.
Yes, but I’m wondering how this compares to the normal ebb and flow of listings. There seems to be a very definite trend of seasonal listing increases in April, May for Canada:
http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/mls_stats.htm
I’m just wondering how much of that increase to 800 listings is due to this normal cycle. For example, even if you could just answer what the total listings were last year at this time. (I’m sure that info is somewhere on here.)
Ben, good to see you too support Western Canada’s weakest economy 2 years in a row. And you’re willing to stay here and make $15,000 less than if you lived in Alberta. Assuming you already own your over inflated house. Have fun selling it in 15 or 20 years, when Alberta’s prices are again way more than ours, to reflect their superior, and actually booming economy and far higher wages.
I think there is a correction coming for housing but there will be no cratering. We were significantly underpriced compared to other areas in the country. As well, as long as resources keep being hot, we will continue to have steady growth. A huge valuable coal deposit was just found near Hudson Bay worth over a billion dollars. Oil, potash, uranium and grain prices are at an all time high. This doesn’t lead credence to a crash in housing prices.
Conrad,
Considering the company we’re in, I don’t think that “western canada’s weakest economy” carries quite the stigma that you think it does. We are, by far, western Canada’s smallest economy. If you have a look at where commodities are going these days, you’ll understand where the optimism comes from. I am not on the blind-faith wagon, nor am I desperately optimistic in hopes that the value of my house won’t tank. I understand your sentiment and frustration in the current house prices but crying fowl from the sidelines won’t make a house cheaper for you, nor will it magically decrease demand. The simple fact that you and many others are on this board expressing dissatisfaction with market conditions is proof that demand is still strong. Saskatchewan is in a phase of growth… not the kind of “red hot” growth that keeps getting blasted in the paper but there truly is substantial growth here that the infrastructure wasn’t prepared for… House prices, therefore, were undervalued when the market heated up. We’re over-valued right now. I’d guess an avg home price of $250-$275K is realistic for saskatoon. I too wish houses were cheaper, I’d buy a nice big castle in Arbor Creek, but that’s just not the reality as dictated by demand. Just be patient for a correction but don’t anticipate the sky to fall… one thing you can anticipate is salaries to go up steadily and the job market to open up.
I’ll also add that Saskatchewan is probably the best place to be in Canada when Canada’s economy goes through a recession. You’re in a good spot, just be patient.
Ben,
I’d also note that StatsCanada, the same source as the GDP numbers also placed Saskatchewan first for job growth and income growth over the last year. While we have some challenges, we have some things to be thankful for. Further, while I am disappointed that we fell short of the economic projections for Saskatchewan, performance at twice the rate of inflation, and above the national average shows a major improvement over 2006.
Regardless of how one feels, my only point was that saying, “yay, we really underperformed and I just hope it gets worse” is kinda, well, misguided. If the economy falls apart it will be bad for everyone but far worse for those earning the lowest incomes.
“If the economy falls apart it will be bad for everyone but far worse for those earning the lowest incomes.”
When will we stop referring to things that have already happened as things that could happen in the future?
Lol, Alex, you ain’t seen nothin yet.
Ben made a strong point in identifying the fact that western Canada is probably the best place to be in North America if the fit truly does hit the shan. The simple fact that Ontario is now technically a “have not” province, on the equalization scale, should speak volumes.
J.
Ben, “We are, by far, western Canada’s smallest economy” I have no idea, are we that much smaller than Manitoba? We were outperformed by them 2 years in a row. Why is our economy smaller than Manitoba? We had roughly the same population, until Maniboom added like 100,000 people in the last decade or so. And yet their houses are still cheaper. And their average incomes higher in Winnipeg. Seems surprising how fashionable it is to bad mouth Manitoba, when at the moment: They make more, they have cheaper housing, their economy has grown a lot more than ours for 2 years in a row, and they have lower crime than Saskatchewan/Saskatoon/Regina.
Just saying that regardless of how cool we think we are, we have yet to back it up by actually achieving anything.
Nick,
If I have learned ANYTHING from Saskatoon’s housing boom, I really wish more people still thought of us as some small hick city. I LIKED being the underdog. So if Manitoba is considered “not cool” please enjoy it while it lasts! Being in the spotlight is NOT all it’s cracked up to be. Ontario can have it back for all I care!
Don’t worry, everyone still views Stoon as a small hick city! The only growth was a couple thousand people moving back home from Alberta. Now that housing prices are up so much in Saskatoon, I am sure that will stop now that Saskatoon is so expensive.
Just thought I’d let y’all know:
Moving to Edmonton,
Start June 1 @ 70,000 fresh out of school with a lot of room to advance (best I could get in Saskatoon and required travel was 60,000)
Bought a sweet house near the U of A, for $350,000 (under asking) and I don’t think I could get anything near the U of S for anywhere near that cheap
Good to see I got the last laugh
I really wish I could have stayed but why take a pay cut and have half you jerks tell me I need to pay $100,000 more for a house? Gonna get me Oiler season tickets with my first raise!
Congrats Conrad!
Jesse G.,
On what?
For telling it like it is?! And getting the heck out of dodge when dodge does nothing for a person!?
Conrad,
I’m glad you’re on your own two feet for now. From one fresh start to another, I would still show concern for paying so much for a home. Regardless of location.
$350,000 is a huge chunk of cash. You’re making more in step with the location – but I hope that the house cost doesn’t put you in any difficulties in the future.
Best of luck and in the end, I can definitely see your reasoning by comparison to Saskatoon.
We all need to be conscious of what happened in the United States. Debt the likes of which Conrad incurs is debt our whole country takes a part of – it’s disgusting that we are allowing people within our own country to harm it so much.
I simply don’t see that the fundamentals support more than a minor correction in the context of steady gains. One need only look at the fact that a variable mortgage rate today is only 4.5%. One also should be aware that commodity prices are in an incredibly strong bull market. Today, the TSX hit a new high. There is no recession in Saskatchewan.
James, fact is, a variable rate mortgage is exactly that, variable. Interest rates are not guaranteed to stay at 4.5% forever and should they rise there are going to be a lot of people financially stretched with the already high housing prices. In regards to commodity prices, yes oil is currently high, but on the other hand there are the recent reports that suggest potash could take a hit in price due to oversupply. I would have to argue the fundamentals are not in place for Saskatoon. Housing affordability has become a large issue for many residents, it is starting to become evident that a lot of the properties changing hands over the past years has been amongst speculative buyers and outside investors, and last but not least, despite a lot of hot air from the media and real estate pumpers our economy has not been “red hot” and our wages still fall far behind those of other provinces. Right now I would use five words to describe Saskatoon – all sizzle, and no steak.
I would advise any young person coming out of school to follow Conrad’s lead and to not waste their time trying to get ahead here in this province. Go somewhere where your hardwork will be appreciated, and where the community will not collectively try to bleed you dry with their greed.
We know we’re in a housing bubble. Deflation speed and magnitude will be impacted by…
Are we in a commodity bubble?
Jason,
I hope you do realize I have a trademark out on the term “greed” here. At this point you do owe me a little bit for the use, but I’m willing to offer you a franchise agreement instead.
Included with the franchise is this advice:
Be sure to take breaks from your rational ground level thinking by making a few observations based on vague and easily misinterpreted statistics. This helps those interested in preserving current profitable economic policies get some distance from a real solution – but allows them to appear concerned and sincere.
I’m not sure that I understand why anyone would “advise any young person coming out of school to follow Conrad’s lead and to not waste their time trying to get ahead here in this province”. “over supply” in the potash market and suddenly Saskatchewan is goin down the drain? You should perhaps reevaluate your definition of economic fundamentals if that’s your evidence of a downturn.
By no means am I promoting the continuation of the current inflation rate in saskatoon, but come on, advising students to leave is ridiculous. It makes no sense to me.
J.
Johny,
I think young people graduating are coming into the real world smarter, with the internet so readily available and other sources abundant, I’m sure they will simply look that unless they are in oil, potash, or some other ‘highly sought after’ saskatchewan market, they will use the common sense and information at hand and make decisions that are best for them weather it be stay here (in those fields) or move somewhere where there are amenities, more entertainment, the possibility of more friends, and more bang for thier bucks.
I don’t think that people encouraging people to get out of the province will make a difference when people can see how things are themselves. And if they happen to buy into the ‘oh we’re totally booming’ mentality then maybe it’s fitting that the unthinking masses stick together in this province while the rest logical thinking, quality of live driven folks get out.
Bingo, Jesse. Unless you are in the natural resource sector, there is no point in sticking around the province.
Johny, my point is, what is the advantage to a young person staying here in Saskatoon? Lower wages, higher housing costs? Maybe its the highest crime rates in Canada? Employers that pay the bare mininum yet expect the sun and the moon from their employees? These don’t sound too appealing to me.
Saskatchewan used to be able to get away with this mentality because housing was priced as such that a person could get by with their lower wages. Until wages make a similar spike as the housing prices, there is no point for a person to consider staying in this backwards province.
Well Johny,
Why did these students go to school? I think it was to get a better standard of living, it was possible before in Sask but now you’re dreaming to ever think it is worth it…. Sorry to say but new grads are forced to leave and now with the current rental and homes costs, how many students are even going to bother to go to the U of S unless they live with their parents or if their parents are rich otherwise go somewhere else….
I see in today’s Star Phoenix that in Colonsy the town will develop and sell lots for 20k and make a profit! Some lots are selling for 150k in Saskatoon with the average being around 90k. And the city is raising taxes. Crazy!!
…and you’ll all be thrilled to see the “boom” word in the headline.
http://tinyurl.com/4fr5ba
Good to hear, however there is an increase in the unemployment rate of 0.2% when there is a larger number of people working, hmmmmm… doesn’t that indicate an larger increase of people on unemployment in the province?
When the people that put this out there actually show what jobs these were then maybe I’ll be impressed. Could have 3 wal marts opening in the province and it would bring up the numbers by 1000 people for all i know.
I still love that the paper drops the word “boom” like crazy, and if our economy and commodities are all so hot, why did our economy only grow 2.8% in 2007? Which was way less than forecasts, less than the other western provinces and barely above National average of 2.7%. I’m not saying the economy shouldn’t have boomed, just that it didn’t.
And congrats to Conrad on taking a higher paying job and buying a house in cheaper Alberta. Not sure what he does, but as long as it’s not potash related, why would he care that potash prices are up (even though apparently we’re now in an oversupply situation)if he makes more money and can buy a house there?
Boy, just checked in with this blog after being away for a bit. It sure has degenerated into a cesspool of negativity and whining from the downtrodden group of people left out and just hoping and praying that there’s some kind of real estate crash that never comes. I hope karma doesn’t bite you all in the ass one day.
As for me, I’m gonna idle home after work (nice 5 min drive now) and enjoy some wine in the hot tub with my gf while we cook some delicious Sask grown top sirloins. Damn good beef in SK too. Damn times are good, looking forward to a summer at Waskesiu in the cabin… It feels so good to be back in SK and ahead of the game by a few miles and enjoy the good times of my mid-20’s in my nice big house in the north end.
You’re a real class act adster. You shouldn’t be talking about karma biting anyone in the ass with that arrogant attitude.
Yeah Ady thx for rubbing it in our faces that we didn’t have the coin to buy a house a couple years ago. Just finished school a couple years too late apparently. Funny how the minute someone gets ahead they turn into a douche. I’m thinking about checking out Alberta jobs now too. I mean Saskatoon is home but I’m not sure it’s worth this much. I remember some one on here said Red Deer you could get a new house for under 300k. I like Red Deer. Seems like an okay place. Don’t need to listen to people talking about how smart they were to have their house double in 2 years.
Red deer is very nice. Out of curiosity, what’s the crime like there? I was once verbally assaulted and had my life threatened there just because I was in the wrong place at the wrong time. It was the only city I’ve been in where I thought death was a serious possibility.
But I love the location, and it’s a beautiful city.
I’m wondering how far down everyone thinks house prices in saskatoon will go?
I’m also wondering when people think this will pop. Or if they think it will just fizzle.
My other question is: Who is still buying houses at these prices? Are we wrong in thinking these prices are high?
What’s the average commute time in Edmonton or Calgary?
What is the frustration level?
I don’t know what Red Deer’s crime is like, but guaranteed lower than Saskatoon and Regina for violent crime, since they’re the highest in the country. Like twice as much violent crime as Edmonton. Times I’ve been to Red Deer it seemed nice. Just visiting or passing through. Was never threatened there. Have been threatened walking around the Ex in Regina and shopping on 20 th in Stoon so not sure that means too much. I think the key with Calgary or Edmonton is getting a house near where you want to work. If you commute across town sure it will be like an hour. Their LRT’s aren’t bad though, if you get a place within walking distance, one of my buddies lives in the south tip of Calgary, Fish Creek, and the LRT ride to down town is under a half hour. I don’t think I’d move to Red Deer myself. Too small for me. But if the main reason you’re in Saskatoon is to have a short commute, Red Deer having like 70,000 ish? people would probably be a bonus.
Hey you guys; quit “boosting” Alberta. We don’t want your enthusiasm doubling the prices on the nearly 7,000 houses (Single Family) we have on our market here in Calgary.
I s’pose y’all r thinkin bout swoopin in and stealin one of our prime duplexes; a steal at around 300G.
There are deals here but there is also a decent optimism about the economy, so not every seller is desparate.
Red Deer is a great place. Reminds me a little of Saskatoon; except without people complaining about the crime, the lost boom or the house prices.
“I s’pose y’all r thinkin bout swoopin in and stealin one of our prime duplexes; a steal at around 300G.”
Really 300 G for a nice duplex in Calgary? The crummy town houses in my end are all up to like 275, I would assume a new duplex in Stoon in 300, sure you’re trying to say that isn’t a good deal, but sounds about normal to me.
And not sure about the optimism thing, maybe Calgary, I’ve heard nothing but bargains, and long waits for selling places in Edmonton, Conrad says he bought a nice place for 350 there, Norm had a 1200 sq ft bilevel for 475? in Saskatoon 5 years old, pretty average looking listed on his page last week, not sure if anything i’d think actually “prime” in stoon for under 400,000. Don’t think it’s so much “Alberta boosting” as realistically, Alberta housing should cost more, for the much higher wages (I think everyone here concedes that), apparently lower crime in Red Deer and just the opportunities that exist there NOW, not in years and years like here
I don’t mind Saskatoon. I just think it made a lot more sense as an affordable place to live where people put up with the crime, and low wages.
Jim,
That property is listed at $429,900.
Thanks for clarification, hence the ?, point is it looked like a nice pretty average 5 year old place, for 430 k apparently, so would assume if some guy in calgary is being sarcastic saying 300 shows how expensive a duplex is there, we’re really in a pretty similar market when you need to spend well over 400 for a nice, but fairly average, relatively small newer bilevel in Saskatoon.
Jim:
I wasn’t being sarcastic. Just trying to bring a little humor to the discussion.I was addressing the notion it was inexpensive here.It isn’t.The point remains the same; for a person starting out the entry level pricing is daunting.
Whether it’s in Saskatoon or Calgary I don’t find a lot to get excited about a 1/2 duplex at 300,000. Looking at the MLS that would be mostly in N.E. Calgary and most people in Calgary would rather live in the S.W. I think.
We are similar in experience but just at different places in the game. The house Conrad bought was probably $100,000 less before the run in price. and could have been $100,000 more at the peak of the run. Saskatoon will probably see the same kind of correction. I’m in Calgary and don’t know a lot about the Edmonton market, but I think they have experienced a faster race to the bottom of the price bucket. I hear there are people that expect them to reduce their inventory and maybe even experience undersupply by fall.
I don’t know if the only thing attracting people to Saskatoon was the undervalued property. But the work and wage issue will probably need to improve to sustain whatever has been going on.
I live in Calgary but don’t own any real estate here. I have a couple of condos in Edmonton but I certainly wouldn’t try to sell them in today’s market.
We’ve heard a lot of talk about Red Deer being a great place to buy and I actually considered buying a condo there about a year ago, but I didn’t pull the trigger. There’s a lot of talk about the fact that Red Deer is in the Calgary/Edmonton “corridor”, and it’s a fact, every single town and city between Edmonton and Calgary has been attractive from the investment point of view. And they likely will continue to be… once we get over this outrageously “overly listed” situation.
The few times I’ve actually spent time in Red Deer (usually I by-pass Red Deer on my way to Edmonton), I’ve found it to be a lovely city. But its kind of funny in Red Deer. It seems like a transition point. It’s approx. half way between Calgary and Edmonton (a little closer to Calgary). Calgarians are generally a very positive lot while Edmontonians seem a little bit negative more often than they should. So I don’t know what the mentality is in Red Deer, but I suspect its very positive. And you have to decide whether you’re an Oilers Fan or a Flames fan! LOL Red Deer even seems to be a dividing line weather-wise. Often a person will be driving from Calgary to Edmonton and see no snow on the ground, but at Red Deer, you often start to see snow that runs all the way to the Arctic. But I’ve found Red Deer to be very friendly and upbeat, not to mention that it’s an all round nice city.
And just for you who aren’t all that happy with Saskatoon, my well-travelled daughter says her two favourite cities in Canada are Ottawa and Saskatoon. Go figure! I think she likes bridges and trees:-) And if any of you were wondering what Albertans think of Saskatchewan… we’ve always viewed Saskatchewan with a ton of respect. In the construction industry, lucky is the contractor who can get a Sask. farmboy as an employee. They just don’t get any better than that. All a kid has to do is tell a contractor that he’s from Saskatchewan and bingo… he has a job. And from the sports side of things… there are more great athletes come out of Saskatchewan per capita than any other province, bar none.
So keep smiling over there… you have a lot going for you!
As for the 300 1/2 duplex the area makes a big difference. As someone already pointed out.. if it’s in the NE it’s probably a heck of a lot cheaper than other areas as most of the NE is compared to Surrey BC. In some other areas of Calgary that same 1/2 duplex could be worth 500+.
I am noticing a similar pattern on this blog vs the Calgary blog. Basically the Sask markets are doing the same thing the Alberta markets did except with a one year lag. Therefore the comments made are roughly the same too. I can’t say that next year Sask markets will do the same but if so, there is no harm in waiting until next year to buy…but we’ll let you know at the end of this year for sure about how it turns out.
Compared to Surrey BC … anyone been to Surrey, most houses pretty new, less crime than Saskatoon. Really not that bad of a place. Definitely safer than the west half of Saskatoon.
Surrey????
Have you guys ever lived or worked there as I did for many years until recently?
Most of it is not cheap. The nice part of Surrey (South Surrey) is like Briarwood but you will be paying $1,000,000+ for a newer 3000 sq. foot home on a small lot. Does that sound affordable?
Even in Newton, a lower middle class area favoured by new Canadians, a newer house will set you back $600,000.
Whalley is the “cheap” part of Surrey you are probably thinking of and you can find an older home there for $500,000. It is a run down, crime ridden, slummy neighbourhood about as bad as your worst Westside areas. After the Downtown Eastside Vancouver ghetto, it is by far the worst area of Greater Vancouver. Lots of crime, graffiti etc. It also is considerably more expensive than your Westside. There are some attempts made to gentrify it and new condos are sprouting up but they are by no means cheap. A one bedroom studio of about 500 sq. feet will be well over $200,000. A two bedroom condo there will sell for a minimum of $350,000. Rents are about comparable to Saskatoon or slightly less. And this is in a poor crime ridden neighbourhood!
Finally, Surrey just so you know is a 40 – 50 minute drive from Downtown Vancouver (about 30 km away) and is a sprawling mess of a city. It doesn’t have anywhere the charm or ease of travel of Saskatoon.
Saskatoon has the huge, solid looking, pretty and important U of S campus right in the middle . . . . there is nothing like that in Surrey.
There is nothing in Surrey like your Broadway (or any of Vancouver’s trendy commercial streets) and no downtown to speak of. All right – neighbouring White Rock is pretty nice but a shack there will go for $600,000 and a proper home $1,000,000. And it is still about an hour drive from Vancouver.
As for jobs, a lot of Surrey types commute to Vancouver or Richmond for work. There are no major head offices in Surrey. If you are a professional like a doctor, lawyer or own a small business, Surrey is a fine place as it is growing quickly in population with tons of new immigrants to work for your business and buy your services. However, for most people, the industrial jobs in Surrey (and much of BC for that matter) are surprisingly poorly paid. I believe that a $65,000/year blue collar job in Saskatchewan would pay $50,000 in Surrey. You won’t find a well paid industrial job in any of the many wood mills in Surrey as they are laying off workers and shutting down. But no worries, there are even more $9/hour service industry jobs which are sought after by the numerous new immigrants with limited English skills flooding into Surrey. That definitely keeps a lid on wages with a nice, ample labour supply growing by the day. There is no energy, potash, uranium industry to speak of in Surrey. Cameco does not have a headquarters in Surrey and in fact, Vancouver doesn’t have many head offices either.
Yes, there are many plush executive suburban monster home enclave/ghettos in Surrey but they are not close to anything and sell in the seven figures. The residents of these places leverage off the plentiful cheap labour!
On the plus side, it is very easy to find an affordable and hard working maid in Surrey.
So in conclusion, Surrey really only beats Saskatoon in the weather department and that it does handily. However, Saskatoon wins hands down in all other categories including price, wages and ambience.
But by all means, compare away to something that is totally not comparable!
A 92 year old sexually assaulted and murdered in her own home in Saskatoon. Bad random crimes happen in Saskatoon and Regina just as much as Calgary, according to yearly crime numbers, a better chance it will happen to any one inidividual there, Calgary has more people so more stuff is going to happen.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/saskatchewan/story/2008/05/05/trial-mcleod.html
And yeah, Surrey’s a crappy suburb but with less crime than our showcase of Saskatoon
There are also a couple people a year killed in crashes involving joy riding stolen cars, often at high speeds, often evading police. And that party that gets out of hand could be your innocent kids, as it often sounds like some are just in the wrong place at the wrong time. And didn’t Saskatoon and Regina both already have a shooting death this year? In the east ends of both cities I believe.
Hey Norm where’s the new week in review?
Wesco,
Patience my friend. I have a kitchen to paint.
Crunched the numbers this morning and I’m just going to put it together now. Give me a hour please.
Dirk,
I have a client who is relocating from Vancouver. Over a cup of coffee one day, she told me that she was “sick of hearing gunfire” from her home. Fortunately, I can say that I’ve never heard a gun being fired in the city of Saskatoon. Yes, people do get killed here but if you know where to travel, I don’t think the likelihood is real high that your going to catch a stray bullet.