Saskatoon real estate market stabilized in May 2008: SRAR

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by Norm Fisher on June 4, 2008

In a press release issued this morning, the Saskatoon Region Association of Realtors (SRAR) says, “Saskatoon’s housing market stabilized in the month of May.”


SRAR reports that 1,015 residential properties were listed for sale, up from 706 for the same period last year. Unit sales, on the other hand, fell 37% when compared to May of 2007 when record levels of demand pushed unit sales to 580 units. “This May’s sales number is more on par with 2006 numbers,” the release goes on to say.


The average residential selling price remained strong at $301,527, down from it’s peak of $306,266 in April, but 29% higher than the number recorded in May 2007 when the average selling price of a Saskatoon home reached $233,404. Year to date, the average came in at $285,523 and the six-month rolling average came in at $275,218.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

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{ 54 comments… read them below or add one }

1 Jim May 11, 2009 at 10:15 am

Good to see. House prices are holding relatively steady, some decline from last month, likely some more decline with the ever increasing inventory and lessening demand. The craziness is over.

I think this is win-win for everyone. Buyers are likely to find deals, and prices will likely fall a bit more, since inventory is continuing to climb. This will get rid of the fear of having to buy now or be priced out later, which will soften demand and sales a bit further.

Still good news for sellers, as the price reduction is pretty minor, $5,000 less than last month/ less than 2%, so any who have owned a house more than a month are still making money off the sale.

I still think a 10% drop from peak prices (apparently last month for MLS, March for SaskHouses) is possible, but a slow decline, likely picking on the over priced, poorly maintained, or ever present Jastek slum condo is not that bad.

2 Dan May 11, 2009 at 10:18 am

That’s messed up how much of a jump from March to April for no good reason. Of course they’re going to come down in May. Suprised not by a lot more. Probably will next month once the sheep have seen a price decrease and decide they need to sell their houses for less to attract bids. I hate bidding. The most annoying way to buy a place ever.

Lots more stuff for sale, like 4 times? what was out there early this year, no reason prices couldn’t go back to what they were in February, which was a lot more than 10% lower than now! Not like a lot has changed over those few months. Other than a lot more places being available for sale.

3 Larry Yatkowsky May 11, 2009 at 10:21 am

Hey Norm,

Toot toot!

We must be on the same MB(market balancing)Train.

We are pulling box cars full of listings yet the track lights signal a slow down in sales as we head down the hill to the Fall Station to look for a flat car piled with price reductions.

4 Doug May 11, 2009 at 10:21 am

To add to over priced housing… record debt (not really surprising) but we are now up to 37% in 2007 (from 32% in 2006) of monthly income after tax on mortgage payments. And of course, 40 year mortgages will decrease monthly payments, but increase total amount paid and increase debt.

http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/banking/mortgages/article.aspx?cp-documentid=7879417

All kind of worrisome if you buy an overpriced house now and see it drop by even $5,000 or $10,000. Sure it will make it up some day… but over 1/3 of your income just going to mortgage payments?

Another reason to rent, and invest the difference, maybe buying when house prices have bottomed out a bit.

5 Michelle May 11, 2009 at 10:22 am

Hi Norm,

Is it just me or is the market experiecing a flood of condo’s for sale? Who’s buying these places? Is this a wiser choice to buy a newer condo in a newer neighbourhood than buying a house that is in need of a lot of repair (considering the list price is equal) in an older neighbourhood?

6 Jon May 11, 2009 at 10:22 am

There are a lot of condos out there. And a lot of cheap houses. Seems to be a lack of middle of the road houses. Not sure why all these 1980 condos are so much money, or all the town houses. I swear I’ve seen 10 identical townhouses for sale at this moment.

7 Wesco May 11, 2009 at 10:22 am

Well considering all things equal I wouldn’t buy either, lol!!! :-)

8 Drake May 11, 2009 at 10:23 am

Hi Norm, here’s a two-part question for you (apologies if any part of this has been previously answered). While the general (although not exclusive) consensus seems to indicate a trend towards a gradual reduction in prices over the Summer (and possibly extending into the Fall), I’m curious which price points of the market are in fact seeing the majority of the decrease ($ and %) and which areas of the city are in fact seeing increased numbers of listings and perhaps longer selling periods?

Also, is this a drop straight across the board or are we seeing higher reductions in certain price ranges and possibly increases in others? Is this consistent from area to area or are there parts of the city that stand out? (such as the newer areas such as 1 or 2). Thanks for any insight you may have into this.

9 Norm Fisher May 11, 2009 at 10:23 am

Michelle,

There are lots of condos on the market and we are starting to see the “converters” load them onto the MLS, I think because sales are not keeping up to their expectations. That said, condo sales were up in March and April over the previous year while single family home sales were dropping. Everything dipped in May, but condos were impacted less than houses.

Jon,

A year ago, any piece of crap house would sell in three days. Buyers are far more sensitive to condition issues today so i think this stuff that needs attention is going to hurt a bit.

Drake,

The average selling price for May came in just $5,000 under April’s numbers. With just 370ish sales, it’s pretty hard to draw and hard conclusions about decreases. As I said above, buyers are now factoring in the work that a property needs so the stuff that’s rough around the edges has lost some advantages. I’m guessing here, but I think the 400,000 to $600,000 range is also finding fewer buyers.

10 Seller May 11, 2009 at 10:23 am

I just checked MLS – and found upwards of 160 properties for sale ABOVE 500K. How many of these properties actually change hands compared to the more affordable price ranges for first or second time buyers? Would we be seeing larger reductions in these pricier homes, or are the reductions more percentage based that they would be kept a bit more uniform? (say around 10% on any property so that all would take a similar “hit”). Just wondering . . . I had no idea we had so many enormously priced homes in saskatoon. I wonder how many of those homes just cancel and never actually sell? Testing the waters for top dollar maybe? Anybody have any thoughts on that?

11 ryan May 11, 2009 at 10:24 am

$500,000k in most parts of the western countries is cheap. I wish everybody would stop complaing about high house prices. You can get 1000sqf to 1400sqf homes anywhere from $300,000 to 350,000 in beautiful areas like varsity view,holliston,haultain close to everything best areas in the city.

12 Jedi May 11, 2009 at 10:24 am

Alex and other Winnipegers, please read the following and comment on how lack of vacancy is affecting Winnipeg renters.

http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2008/06/05/apartment-vacancy.html

Is Winnipeg facing the same issues Saskatoon experienced? How are they handling things differently?

13 Dan May 11, 2009 at 10:24 am

Yeah everyone’s out to get ryan…

Seriously though, some of those half a million dollar houses look pretty average. A lot of those nice areas Ryan likes are because the houses are 50 to 90 years old!

My question for you Norm, a lot of houses seemed to be at about $300,000 +/- 30,000, but below the mid 200’s there is almost nothing. There is huge variation at about 300, from 50 year old to 30 year old, 700 sq ft to 1,200, nice to dank, often where you’d look at one and say “that should be worth half of the other one, that may only be 30,000 more”. Do you predict a drop of more of these middle aged, smallish bungalows into the mid 200’s? Or is it more that the market just can’t support the nicer ones being in the 400’s or 500’s, because people can’t afford that price point in adequate numbers yet?

There does seem to be an oversupply of about $300,000 houses. (Of course ignoring the west end, because by the time it gets decent, they’re in the middle of no where)

14 Jim May 11, 2009 at 10:25 am

I’m shocked condos dipped less than houses in May. There are a lot of condos for sale. Like everyone else says, they all look the same. Especially with some of the newer developments, it seems a half dozen condos built a few years ago are already for resale. The market seems flooded with 2 bedroom condos or 2/3 bedroom town houses. And even in established buildings, often a couple for sale per building, so no urgency what so ever.

I agree with the big volume of cheaper houses.

I also agree with ignoring houses from the west end, it may be affordable, but a lot just aren’t interested. Especially with all the cookie cutter east end condos and wack load of lower priced east end houses on the market.

I personally see a big drop in average value of condos sold for the coming months and a drop in over represented smaller bungalows as well.

15 Alexander Trauzzi May 11, 2009 at 10:26 am

http://www.sussexrealty.ca/apt-search-results.asp?Submitted=Yes&Area=4&Type=&Range=

Sussex is in my opinion a GREAT company to rent with and they appear to have quite a fair bit of available suites (and fantastic prices!) in the South West of the city…Which is where you’ll find a lot of university students.

If things are that good over there, they’re great elsewhere. It’s not hard to find an apartment in Winnipeg – but I’m no longer part of that shell game.

Callum captcha: “apartments to”

Hehe.

16 Dan May 11, 2009 at 10:26 am

Off topic, but Saskatoon is Western Canada’s fattest city. Just found on thebench, but from msn.

http://healthandfitness.sympatico.msn.ca/DietFitness/Canadas+fattest+and+fittest

17 Jim on behalf of Brandon May 11, 2009 at 10:30 am

So some guy named Brandon stuck this on the following price drops in Alberta blog, and since that’s pretty much done, thought I’d repost here for better visibility, also speaks to why prices would be expected to drop a bit here (quote below)

—–

well being that I currently live in Reddeer and have for the past 7 years. Originally moved to AB from Sk because of an income difference of 25 thousand a year. Was actually thinking of moving back this year went and looked at the housing and the housing market in March was 100 thousand dollars difference then what it is here. So my wife and I looked at it weighed the options. we would both take a very substantial pay cut, pay 179 dollars more a month in land taxes, and live in a smaller shittier house. Not to mention the PST and the higher deductions on each cheque Nope don’t think so. We decided to stay in the cheaper city of red deer and make the higher income.

I have actually had 3 different couples of friends that moved back to SK and then decided to move back to AB because the cost of living is that much more then AB, and the wages are that much less.

18 Norm Fisher May 11, 2009 at 10:31 am

Dan,

“There is huge variation at about 300, from 50 year old to 30 year old, 700 sq ft to 1,200, nice to dank, often where you’d look at one and say “that should be worth half of the other one, that may only be 30,000 more”.

This is fairly typical. There are almost always properties on the market which are priced unrealistically. Last year, even the crap would sell. I think it’s a different story today.

Seller and Dan,

Range, followed by unit sales in May, followed by current actives.

, 18, 157

It appears that the larger oversupplies exist in the 300,000-400,000 and the 500,000 plus range.

Typically gains and losses are fairly close in all price categories, though they often don’t move at the same time.

19 Drake May 11, 2009 at 10:31 am

Norm, when ones excludes condos, houses older than 10 years and anything with less than 3 bedrooms there are 98 listings between $400k-$1M; 55 above $500k and 20 above $600k. That doesn’t seem like an oversupply to me? I’m certainly not implying that anything older than 10 years isn’t worth considering, but unless it’s in fairly good shape with at least some upgrades and improvements you really have to add $30k-$50k in modernization costs on top of the sale price.

On the flipside, there are 330 listings in the $200k-$300k range (almost half condos) and 411 listings in the $300k-$400k range. Total of 741, houses and condos. When one considers the financial differences between the two price ranges (one is going to be more heavily subject to financing and conditions than the other) it seems clear where the saturation is.

There are also several key differences:

1. Listings in the $150k-$300k range were selling for one third their current value less than 2 years ago while most houses in the $400k+ range (while also having appreciated) have not seen the same 250%+ appreciation (most have in fact enjoyed a 50-75% appreciation).

2. The $150k-$300k range is going to be ground zero for mass dumping and wild price reductions when either the estimated 500-1,000 units under renovation by developers are completed -or- we see a mass exodus of amateur speculators… whereas owners in the $400k+ range are not necessarily motivated by the same set of financial circumstances (more often than not, they can patiently sit on the sidelines and wait for the right offer).

20 Armoth May 11, 2009 at 10:32 am

Drake,

Wouldnt it be the other way around since a majority of average joes like me cannot afford a 350k house or above lessening the chance of potential buyers in the upper end of the market.

21 Drake May 11, 2009 at 10:33 am

Armoth, yes, if that were the only segment of the buyer market, and if all ranges of houses had appreciated equally in value over the past few years (which hasn’t been the case). Out-of-province interest can certainly skew demand, as can homeowners who desire to sell at the peak to maximize the tax-free profit on their home and upgrade into something larger (which more money is still typically less on a per square foot basis).

22 Jim May 11, 2009 at 10:33 am

Armoth, I thought you already bought your 230 ish dream house.

Seriously though, there are a lot of 250 to 350 places. A quick scan of MLS shows many blocks of released condo conversions. Even if the entire market only dropped on average another $5,000 or so (okay I made this number up) I could see the sub section of entry level houses and moderate condos dropping in value, as Drake pointed out, there are already 741 units, 200,000 to 400,000 and this number is climbing daily with new listings, speculators cashing out and delayed condo conversions finally coming on line.

IF Saskatoon attracts the high income earners, and creates new high income jobs, I can see a gradual increase in value of high price homes, same for Regina, as new professionals and executives look for their 3,000 sq ft paradise. But as we near 1,000 entry level houses available, with more 2 and 3 bedroom condo conversions coming online daily, this segment of the market has to be the first to fall, and may fall by itself. Except for maybe within 10 blocks of the university, the other entry level housing for 300,000 ish has little to offer and especially the smallish less than 1,000 sq ft houses with at most 2 bathrooms and ancient plumbing/wiring, certainly pre high speed/information/pre bill gates electrical/phone, not warranting their occassional nearly 300,000 price.

23 Moving From Toronto May 11, 2009 at 10:34 am

Drake

you trivialize Amorth when it is him and people like him who make the housing market what it is. If current starter home owners and their agents price thier starter home buyers out of the market by pricing their home too high who is going to buy them? Amorth is in the group of people that allow everyone to enjoy a bigger better home, when someone buys your starter home you buy a bigger home. But what has happened here in Saskatoon is those that own starter homes have forgotten what it was like to try and srape together the money required to get the down. With prices as high as now… I’m glad I have equity in a home I already own because if I had to save the amount required I would be living in a tent on some vacant lot.

24 Norm Fisher May 11, 2009 at 10:35 am

Drake,

What would be the rational for “excluding” certain units from the stats? The fact is that the listings to sale ratio is substantially higher than all but one of the other ranges. Perhaps it’s the prospective buyer best suited to this range who is most impacted by affordability? Perhaps they’re actually buying down into a lower range?

As for the disparity in increases, I’m not sure where you’re getting your numbers. Let me share some numbers from the MLS.

Comparison of the cost per square foot for a 1,000-1,000 square foot bungalow in Saskatoon.

Q1/06 – $143

Q1/08 – $275

Difference – 92%

Comparison of the cost of a 2,000-2,200 square foot two-storey or two-storey split in Saskatoon.

Q1/06 – $137

Q1/08 – $271

Difference – 98%

I wouldn’t be able to peg anything that’s three times what it was two years ago, or anything that’s 50% of what it was two years ago.

I agree that the condo conversion is a definite wildcard. I’ve been warning about that since last summer, but so far, no relief.

25 bob May 11, 2009 at 10:36 am

I wonder if the people who engaged in the bidding wars of past here in this city really thought about what the hell was going on. here is a rather disturbing article.www.thestar.com/article/256968

26 bob May 11, 2009 at 10:42 am

http://www.thestar.com/article/256968 try this for the article on bidding wars.

27 jrochest May 11, 2009 at 10:42 am

Well, the condo conversions are toast. They’re just sitting there. There are too many of them, and they can’t rent for the cost of carrying — so the prices will have to come down substantially enough so that a buyer could rent them out and make a little money. As it is, that’s not possible even at twice a reasonable rent.

I think they’d sell were they dirt cheap — less than 100,000 for a one bedroom and only a little more for a two. But 120,000 is what some of these clever people are asking for a 300 SQF bachelor.

I must admit to a certain schadenfreude at this development.

28 Dan May 11, 2009 at 10:44 am

I enjoy the $250,000 ish for average looking condos from 80’s that were $80,000 3 years ago. As much as cheap houses are over priced, condos are overpriced that much more. $300,000 + for a town house?! with a one car garage? That will ghettoize pretty quickly, with all the cars on the street and up to 3 people living in them.

29 Moving From Toronto May 11, 2009 at 10:44 am

The prices will continue to come down in this city.. LIKE NORM SAID the speculators have left this city…. they got in and were the ones gettin out before all the greedy people of this city got into the market… location…location…location… but timing is everything….. all of the resident home owners missed the wave…….. sorry I’m comin for your house cheaper than you tink. :-)

30 Jim May 11, 2009 at 10:46 am

I don’t think the speculators have gotten out yet. I think they’re trying; with almost 1,200 active MLS listings, the speculators who were a bit late and missed March for quick sales and inflated prices, are stuck until some one naive comes along, or they drop their crummy condo conversion cost.

31 Jim May 11, 2009 at 10:46 am

Dan, those Jastek junk town houses are already “ghettoize”d. For condos 2 to 3 years

old, funny how run down some look, and cars

all over the streets, with more condos to come.

Not sure why city can’t mandate at least 2 parking

stalls for all new 3 bedroom condos. Solo

garages are dumb on everything but a solo/bachelor/one bedroom apartment.

32 Drake May 11, 2009 at 10:50 am

Norm, I excluded condos in the upper range because I think there is an extremely limited market for those kind of high-end units (and quite a few are in retirement communities).

The 92%-98% difference for houses could be accurate if we’re talking averages (I had used 50%-75% on the low-end of my estimate). I think you’d find that if you looked at very specific price ranges the averages may not hold.

What I was more alluding to is the astronomical increases for apartment conversions and condominiums. One good example is the 3-story ‘townhouse’ style single units adjacent to Briarwood that were originally selling for $95k in early/mid-2006 and which I’ve heard have gone for as much as $280k this year).

33 Drake May 11, 2009 at 10:50 am

Moving from T, on the contrary, I think first-time home owners (not sure if Amorth falls into this category) have had a *tremendous* impact on the housing market increase. This is the segment of the market that has also seen the most speculation, overbidding, etc. and as a consequence will probably be the first to see any correction. My only comment was there are different factors that come into play at higher price points (financing and other conditions can vary significantly; Jim made some excellent points with respect to some of these).

Also, just to clarify, I believe what Norm had indicated was that all the “professional” speculators have long since left, but that isn’t to say there still aren’t a lot of amateurs and developers still in the game…

34 C White May 11, 2009 at 10:51 am

moving from toronto,

what makes all of the people in the market from saskatoon greedy?It would be pretty dumb to sell your house for less that you could get for it.And lets not forget anyone selling in this market is probably buying too.If you are going to call anyone greedy it should be the builders.

35 Ron May 11, 2009 at 10:51 am

The fluctuations in price is really all short term noise. The fundamentals are just too strong for real estate in Saskatchewan. Potash is still going very strong and I see another order from China came in this week at an extremely high price per ton. I also see a new company has started up to great fanfare with mines not too far from Saskatoon and I believe a headquarters in Saskatoon.

The biggest story this year and next will be the Bakken formation. It is as big as the North Sea or the Alaskan North Slope and as big as the Brazilian oil finds a mile under the sea floor. This is big! I realize it is closer to Regina but the royalties the government collects will benefit the entire province.

No one on this board has convinced me to sell my Saskatoon rental property. I’m going to keep collecting my (good) rent and I’m buying oil stocks that are investing in the Bakken formation.

36 Norm Fisher May 11, 2009 at 10:52 am

Drake,

I have no problem believing that the lower price ranges are as vulnerable to a correction as any other. Entry level buyers have been affected most by the large increases and affordability is definitely a factor. As I, and others have suggested, the market will be in a tough spot if average Joe can’t afford to enter.

When it comes to looking at increases though, I don’t think that we can say, “this range increased more than that range.” If averages are weak, how does one track a value range? I know of no better way than to look at a very specific type of property to see how its value has changed. The comparison I used shows the change in a very basic, entry level bungalow compared to a more upper end home.

I think people also tend to lose track of how things have changed. For instance, Lakewood town houses have gone from an average of $108 per square foot to $223 per square foot during the same time periods outlined above. It has been a long, long time since they were $95,000. This represents an increase of 107%, and is an example of the “don’t move at the same time” that I was talking about above. It’s just one example of how certain segments do get out of whack, but I think eventually, some balance comes back. These very units did experience a bit of a correction through the summer and fall last year as their prices go ahead of the market. Inventory built up, prices became more stable, and then they were off to the races again in the new year. When the prices on these units gets too high, people start to look elsewhere and end up buying something like this.

http://www.mls.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=6971618

37 Norm Fisher May 11, 2009 at 10:52 am

C White,

Where is your social conscience? :)

Funny, I meet all kinds of people on this blog who like to hold others to these high idealistic standards. In the real world, I have yet to meet a seller who wouldn’t like a little more, or a buyer who wouldn’t like to pay a little less. Most of them are really fine people too.

38 SomethingDoesntAddUp May 11, 2009 at 10:53 am

Ron,

Curious to know if there are any publicly listed companies with Bakken involvement?

39 Drake May 11, 2009 at 10:53 am

Norm, I’m suggesting that the lower price ranges could be subject to a greater correction than the higher ones (if we in fact see a sustained correction), mainly due to different economic factors and the types of building or conversion underway. I could be wrong, but I suspect that homes in the $450k+ range do not fall into the same buyer segment for the average Joe. Higher-end homes (especially ones in prime locations) have typically held their value (and sometimes even appreciated) during market fluctuations.

This is, in fact, already happening in Calgary, where we’re seeing saturation in condos and houses in the lower price points (probably in the range of 5-12%). This has not necessarily extended to all segments of the market, though.

In the not too distant future I see a glut of condominium conversions and similar construction coming on the market in Saskatoon which could have the short-term effect of pushing prices in the $200k-$300k range down, which could ultimately benefit first-time home buyers (and to a certain degree, tenants, as some will undoubtably return to the rental market). I can envision this extending until early Summer 2009 (perhaps April?) at which point cost-of-living increases and continued surges in oil prices may come into play.

40 Drake May 11, 2009 at 10:55 am

Norm, I was wondering what your take is on the government’s announcement yesterday (regarding the housing task force report), and what if any impact this will have on the current housing market?

http://www.canada.com/saskatoonstarphoenix/news/story.html?id=3486bb1d-05e8-4779-b0e4-142691a8f068

Obviously it’s subject to how the government chooses to interpret and implement these suggestions, but there were some fairly substantial recommendations which included: reducing low and middle-income taxes, reductions in the education portion of property taxes, removing PST from building materials in affordable housing and indexing shelter allowances to the cost-of-living.

41 Armoth May 11, 2009 at 10:55 am

Somethingdoesntaddup,

Oilsands quest inc is the calgary based exploration outfit developing Saskatchewans first global-scale oilsand discovery. Its Amex is BQI just go to yahoo finance and type bqi in.

42 jrochest May 11, 2009 at 10:57 am

Norm:

It’s nice to hear that the smell of toast isn’t just my imagination!

Like I said, schadenfreude.

43 George May 11, 2009 at 10:58 am

Drake,

I have been following Stonebridge the last couple of months and I know the skinny houses were bought for 275k last year and now are listed for 375k. The bigger homes were bought last year for 375k and people are listing for over 500k. Last month I believe I counted 60 listings there and there was 3 sales the whole month. This is just Stonebridge, what about Willowgrove, Hampton Village or Briarwood?

It seems most of the new construction are big homes, probably at least 50% are mini mansions (dream homes), when only about 5% of the buyers can afford these homes. I would hate to be a speculator trying to unload one of these properties in the next year.

These homes are way overvalued and like I have mentioned before, they are far from being finished. People don’t have the money to purchase these homes, then finish the basement,driveway,yard and then furnish the home. For a 500k home, you are probably spending another 50k to finish it.

I think next year, there will be a glut of condos and higher end homes

If Norm had a percentage of what price range is selling, we could have a better idea. But I see less demand for new homes and way more supply coming the market.

44 seller May 11, 2009 at 10:58 am

I don’t thing hampton village is having the same issues. A lot of the folks I know in confed have put deposits down on the houses out there. They are seen to be a decent deal by the people in our area (not all, but many). We personally have decided to keep our confederation park house as a revenue property since the market has softened. It means less renovations on our new north end house, but I think in the end it will be looked back upon as a solid decision.

45 Drake May 11, 2009 at 10:59 am

George, I agree with you that a surplus of more (expensive) homes in Stoneridge, Willowridge and Briarwood is probably on the horizon. There’s a fair amount of development and/or listing going on there…

Area 1: 93 @500k+ 10 (new <1 yr); 46 (1-10 yrs); 27 (10-20 yrs); 16 (20 yrs+)

Area 2: 98 @500k+ 11 (new <1 yr); 47 (1-10 yrs); 28 (10-20 yrs); 18 (20 yrs+)

Prices can really depend on the demand and availability within a specific location. Remember the three “L”s when buying or building a home: location, location location…

Take these examples of $500k+ listings: Briarwood (45), Willowgrove (15), Stonebridge (11). By comparison, in an older areas such as the University (10) or Arbor Creek/Erindale (15), there are substantially less listings with respect to the total number of homes in those areas. I think if you’re looking for a good buy on a larger home, I think Briarwood is a great place to start (I haven’t been through there lately but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a lot of houses for sale with adjacent/opposite “for sale” signs).

46 ryan May 11, 2009 at 11:00 am

Alot of people are forgeting that location and size of the lot are more important than sf of a house. Like a empty 50 foot lot or bigger in varsity view Q.E Haultain, holliston is worth $200,000 buy itself with no house. You can build brand new house in settled area with everything you want close buy instead of being far out in the boonies with no trees dirt road and skinny 25ft lots and your neighbors houses within inches of your own.

47 Norm Fisher May 11, 2009 at 11:00 am

George,

I did outline that just a bit above in this thread.

48 George May 11, 2009 at 11:01 am

Norm,

sorry I missed that. That just confirms my theory with all new houses( except the skinny ones) 450k and up, they will have trouble unloading them. Less demand and way more supply coming onto the market in this range. They will HAVE to lower their price or do something to stand out. I don’t know, maybe a new car, we saw this in Edmonton last year.

Something I found out about Calgary and Edmonton that will be coming here, if it has not already. The speculators who got into the game too late have two, some even more mortgages. When they couldn’t get rid of the spec house, they also listed their own residence, cause they have been bled to the bone. I imagine the wife is happy with them now!

49 Jim May 11, 2009 at 11:03 am

I think that as many more new houses come onto the market in big numbers, with the massive construction efforts in Stone bridge, and other areas, we will see a dip in the price of these $375k “skinny houses”. I mean, most don’t seem to have a garage, and if so, detached. I thought we got away from that garbage in the 1970’s (att single) and 1980’s (att double)

Drop in higher end new houses pricing, drops skinny house price since not garage/basically seprt townhouse

Drop in annoying skinny houses and smaller new houses

drops poorly constructed and poorly wired Jastek townhouses and drops older 1910’s to 1970’s houses

Drop in newish/junky townhouses drops older townhouses

Drop in older town houses and old houses drops excess condo conversions, because they are old anyway

I think the availability of cheaper options in better categories will have a trickle down effect, due to the increase in supply of new stuff, and massive increase in supply of conversions. Location and lot size does matter, but really, 5 maybe 10 blocks to University of Saskatchewan is great/easy walk.

Beyond that, 11 blocks better than 21, but both long walk, probably drive if cold/wet and have parking…

and a brand new, albeit stupid no garage skinny house, in Stonebridge for a big discount, will put down ward pressure on prices of town houses and condos that aren’t really “walking distance” on a daily basis, ie 30 minutes done on nice day with time to spare. Not a real walk commute if you can drive from Stone bridge in 20 minutes.

50 George May 11, 2009 at 11:03 am

Please help, I got caught with a spec property in Calgary and can’t sell. Need to close before I go away for a few years. Thanks.

51 Mike May 11, 2009 at 11:03 am

George,

I’ll give you a hundred bucks. Will you take a cheque? Unless your going “away” to the pen for a few years, in that case I’ll give you 3 cartons of Export A and a toothbrush you can sharpen into a nice shiv.

52 Sweety May 11, 2009 at 11:04 am

Norm:

What is the statistics for last week. Is it so bad that you are not disclosing it?

53 Norm Fisher May 11, 2009 at 11:05 am

Sweety,

Lol. No, I haven’t missed a week yet and I promise to deliver both bad and good. Weekly stats are guaranteed to be delivered by Sunday, at the latest. This weekend, I have a family room that’s ripped to pieces and it’s making everyone around here anxious. The baseboards are caulked and the patching is all done so I’ll get at those weekly numbers before I start painting. :)

54 Jim May 11, 2009 at 11:05 am

I think that with prices dropping $5,000 on average in May, and now seeing another 253 new properties for sale, compared to only 70 sold, in the first week of June, that we’ll see at least another $5,000 decrease in average sale price for June. 1,259 units for sale is by far the most in recent memory. If over 200 new properties are for sale each week, and under 100 (only 70 last week) are selling, that inventory is just going to keep climbing.

RBC had Saskatoon as nearing a buyers’ market (graph in RBC link in RBC story) and that was before weeks of big increases in inventory and a May decrease in selling price.

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