Saskatoon Real Estate Resource Centre Blog

Does anybody know if there is a website for Regina stats and blogs?

I have several friends there that tell me it's still booming but I'd like to see the stats for myself. Thanks

Well Vinny beat me to the first comment, however, kind of affirms the trend we've all seen.  There are continually more houses and less sales, maybe not enough to say crash yet, but definitely more of a buyer's market, with more listings available.  Also, this is again considering that other areas in the country, previously more expensive are now more affordable for housing.  So ever increasing inventory and declining demand, some price correction in Saskatoon is coming, just difficult to decide when.  

I would agree with Norm on the media's sudden turn nationally, and think that's kind of what we're waiting for in Saskatoon, an honest media report to come out and say the market is over priced and the boom is done.  People here seem to believe whatever's on the news.  Do we really think our economy doubled since spring 2006 when our population was at a nadir?  At that time there were still lots of good jobs, but it wasn't cool to move here.  Now it is.  Regardless that not much has changed in the last 2 years, except for doubling house prices, as soon as the media starts telling us to sell at the peak, we'll see an increase in sales of speculators.  And maybe as a group we should stop putting so much weight on what TV or the paper tells us.

Like I said in the Boom is Over comments, bid under asking price, there are a lot of similar homes available and buyers just need to show some patience.  Each week we see there are more available.  If we all show some patience and didn't bid over anything for a couple weeks, I'm sure prices would go down pretty quick.  And with more houses available, it's not like we're going to miss out.

ROCK AND ROLL!!!  :'D

Norm,

When you say our number of listings is a "drop in the bucket" compared to other cities, aren't we getting closer to a "normal" inventory for our population size?  Many other cities are also oversaturated with listings.  It'd be interesting to see a direct ratio.

Norm,

Thanks for the link-love .>)

Vinny you are on the best blog in Saskatoon.  Norm has it all and posts the stats regularly.  

Sweet.  Here comes the sun, and I say it's all right.  :')

Norm is famous: http://www.canada.com/saskatoonstarphoenix/news/business/story.html?id=ce63aeff-bc20-4483-b0d2-1dd207a82e90

I must have missed this at the time, but apparently even local main stream media are allowing questioning the fundamentals of the Saskatoon market.  Far from calling it "Saskabust" yet - but still raising some serious questions on how we can possibly justify higher prices than elsewhere.  And why is Regina so much cheaper (over $100, 000 cheaper? by Norm's numbers above)?  It has the same kind of jobs (actually a bit higher paying on average), has oil and gas type stuff based there, and an adequate university.  Saskatoon just wins in riverness (though Wascana Park is beautiful in the summer) and having a less sleazy mayor.

If we're going to pretend Saskatoon prices are up on the strength of the provincial economy, Regina should be on par (Granted Regina has historically been cheaper) with it's oil upgrader, an actual gas company downtown and proximity to other potash mines and gas and such.

Dam norm you are famous, the Starphoenix

My thought is that prices will continue to increase albeit at a slower rate than we have seen. I say this because (1) the economy is still strong (2) the supply/demand equation is not out of wack and (3) interest rates are headed lower for the next year. I say 10-15% for the next couple of years.

Jim,

I disagree, I'd rather have Pat Fiacco as a mayor... or some sort of typewriting primate... or even an intelligent mollusc!  Who voted Atch in, not once, but twice!?  Maybe a lot of people were rooting for that glass dome downtown?  All they got were $500K Christmas lights.  Tsk tsk.  I suppose between him and Pankiw he was the lesser of two evils.

Maybe I should have clarified, a guy who owns a men's clothing store and shows up at events without a belt (shirt tucked in) will never get my vote - That said, as a former City of Regina employee (left for better opportunity, not fired), I can never endorse Fiacco, he is truly a sleezeball to levels the general public will never comprehend until under his employ.  His 90% plus approval rating, despite the highest crime and violent crime rates in Canada, unhappy employees and really the fact that he, like Atch, are just on cruise control given the economy, will always baffle me.  I think people just like a smiling face, regardless of what's under neath.

And Norm, I was pretty sure Royal LePage's own survey pegged Regina at $100,000 less than Saskatoon.  And the higher wages in Regina than Saskatoon are a couple years old, but I'm assuming still accurate.

Thanks for the Regina stats, Norm. I am one of the bulls on this thread but all of the numbers point to rising not falling prices in Saskatchewan generally. Asides from potash and wheat, higher energy prices are fueling the "Saskaboom". I see oil hit a new high in overseas trading today thanks to talk of a long term production peak in Russia and a new announcement from OPEC that they will not increase production. Of course, this brings us to the "next" big oil fields in the world: one is in Brazil offshore and a mile under the seabed. The second is the Bakkan formation right here in Saskatchewan which could eclipse the Alaskan North Slope in terms of production. I've been reading that commercial exploitation techniques tailored to develop this field are just about ready to go and within 5 years things could be up and running. That brings up the subject of Regina which is actually closer than Saskatoon to the upcoming Bakkan oil fields. Regina might show a stronger real estate market than Saskatoon going forward. Does anyone have any thoughts on that?

Jim,

Oh my, he does sound as bad as Atch!  LoL

A lot of Albertans too thought, regarding Ralph Klein, that a monkey dressed in a suit could have led them into that boom, it didn't matter who was at the helm.  I'm going to say the same for SK.  :')  Of course, if not managed properly the grass can turn brown PDQ.

Ron,

Numbers of slower sales and rising inventory point towards a buyer's market.  While I'm one of the bears, I don't see how Saskatoon prices are going to rise (substantially) if wages aren't increasing at a decent rate.  Only the big wigs initially will be making a pretty penny off this "Saskaboom", not the average Joe.  As observed, real estate has taken off before any real SK economy boom is present.  Saskatoon could "truly" boom and I still don't think we'll see much more for price increases this year since the market seems to be maxed out for many entry level buyers.

I don't understand how Ron is so bullish on SK.  I mean if it is all about oil, Edmonton is a big service centre for oil and gas and oil sands and like everyone else on here keeps pointing out, people in Edmonton seem to make way more, and their property values are falling, since they exceeded affordibility and supply caught up and are now less than Saskatoon.  

Maybe Edmonton has an over supply, but really, in terms of moving to a city, why would new residents move to Saskatoon when they can make more in a similar but bigger city while living in a cheaper house, thanks to the over supply in Edmonton?  I think until Saskatoon actually wages actually beat Calgary, or Edmonton, or even Regina (some one else on here), there is no real reason for prices to go up and no real reason for people to move here, other than relatives or friends living here.

I think the Alberta Advantage just got huge, all that held them back from crushing Sask before was that it used to be more expensive to buy a house in Alberta before.  All the things like higher wages, more job opportunities (especially for trained professionals like engineers or scientists), a better university and proximity to BC/mountains still exist that initially drew people west - now with comparitively cheaper housing.  I wouldn't move back to Saskatoon to take a pay cut, live in a smaller house and endure even colder temperatures, and some one on here said it leads the country in violent crime, is that true?  "Saskaboom" as everyone calls it just doesn't make sense.  

I would have thought about retiring back there, some time in the distant future, but with the assumption I could gain something on the move, just not worth it if I'm losing.

People continue to say "the economy is strong" in Saskatchewan, so house prices will not crash.  But our house prices have doubled and our economy has not.  The booming economy which is to come has already been priced into the real estate market.  This is a part of what made it go out.  

When people hear something wonderful is going to happen to "X" in 5 years, they don't wait 5 years to invest in it.  They invest in it now, before the actual reason to invest.  That "good news" of our diamonds, oil, etc is already priced into the market is it not?

My question is: Who are buying now?  And why?

David,

I agree that Saskatoon's house market has led the way for a boom, now we're just waiting for that boom.

I actually think the hydrocarbon future is not in Alberta but in Saskatchewan. Alberta's conventional oil and gas production is in decline and the tar sands stuff is hugely expensive and environmentally devastating to move out of the ground. I've been following where the next oil projects are going to be and they are more likely to be in Saskatchewan rather than Alberta. The Bakken is actually light oil and with new techniques of horizontal drilling, the cost of production will be way less than the tar sands of Alberta. The amount of oil in the Bakken formation is also huge - several times that of the Alaskan North Slope which surprised me when I studied the subject. Aside from the Brazilian discovery of oil a mile below the seabed, the Bakken is THE next oil frontier in the world. Companies are already moving in and I believe that in 5 years, Saskatchewan's cities (Regina in particular given it is on the front line of the Bakkan field) will be oil centres. If you were a major oil company what would you do? Pour more money into the tar sands where production costs are extremely high and rising by the day or invest in easier light oil that has a lower production cost. I think the answer is obvious!  

I should also address the point of who the purchasers will be going forward. Up to now, I agree that speculators - many from out of town are big driving forces in the prices increases at least initially. But speculation is a form of information on a market. If the prices are going up - what does that say about the future? It could indicate confidence from investors in the future.

Going forward, aside from new resource projects which certainly are in the planning stage, we know that the Saskatchewan government's take from taxes and royalties is steadily climbing. This money will be funneled back into the economy in the form of infrastructure spending, higher salaries for (more) government workers and possibly tax reduction - all things which stimulate a local economy and gets the multiplier effect going as the money gets put back into the economy. We then have a virtuous (feedback) cycle taking the economy and eventually wages - higher. This will be supportive of real estate prices in the medium term, I believe.

I have been following Edmonton's market for quite some time.

Average Single Family House in Edmonton is around 385k while in Saskatoon it is around 330k

Average Household Income in Edmonton is 85k

Saskatoon is 70k.

So why is Edmonton staying around 385k while Saskatoon is closing the gap?

Supply and demand.

Saskatoon only has around 700 properties for sale.  We need something like 2500 listings for some sensibility in this market. We need an oversupply of listings, maybe even more than that number. That may sound like a lot but take a look at this website for Edmonton listings.  Tell me that there were no speculators in Edmonton the last couple of years.

http://www.polarissells.com/search_mls_map_form1.php

Heather D.,

Here are some approx numbers

Phoenix, 1 listing per 60 people

4 mill people  66000 listings

Edmonton 1 listing per 71 people

1 mill people 14000 listings

Saskatoon 1 listing per 321 people

225,000 people  700 listings

My numbers are not precise but pretty close to get an idea of things.

I believe we need a tonne of listings to get some decency in this market.  We have a bit to go yet.

George,

I think if we saw an average listing of 1000 we'll have a lot more balance.  Phoenix and Edmonton are both oversaturated markets.  Thanks for those numbers, it gives one a sense of what's going on.  :')

So what if Saskatoon lacks supply?  Simply Edmonton does not lack supply, probably is actully cheaper, is a similar city, and if we believe George's income numbers, the average household there out earns Saskatoon by $15,000 a year!  If you really want to live in Saskatoon, yeah lack of housing, but the making 15,000 more a year, in cheaper housing in Edmonton should negate available housing here.  After all if housing is available everywhere else, and you can make 15,000 more a year, who cares if housing is available here, just move to those other places.

Canada's second largest oil producer.

It leads the world in uranium.

Home of the world's biggest potash producer, the most valuable company on the Toronto stock exchange.

Diamonds?  Yup.  We have them too apparently.  

Bread.  Does the world need bread?

Sure, economically we will do well, but will these things above lead to a massive influx of people, and will this be happening in the next few months?  

I believe in the next 5-10 years, house prices here will be very high.  But right now, I'm not so sure.

The numbers I had were from a report from the website http://www.canadianbusiness.com/rankings/bestplacestolive/list.jsp

I believe the study was done about a year and a half ago.  But the average household income was just an estimate.

I know that we have experienced the biggest growth in wages since.  I see that trend continueing in the next few years.

Wouldn't be surprised if Saskatoon incomes were below average though - Regina is traditionally a few thousand higher per earner, so if average is 77,000 wouldn't be surprised if across a couple earners Saskatoon was lower, say 70,000 like George said.  Fits with the numbers you usually hear floated by media.

George, that was an interesting article.  I find it interesting that Saskatoon came in 16 th, back when housing was more affordable ... since at that time we already had low unemployment, I'm assuming we're dropping spots as discretionary income goes down with increasing housing costs.

I had heard on the TV news recently that Alberta, percentage wise, once again led the nation in income growth, although it was only about 0.1 or 0.2% more than Sask in increase.  Still, starting from a higher base, so after, Alberta actually gained slight ground on Sask wages, and they make even more, slightly, than we do.  So if George's numbers are right, and in Edmonton, a family made $15,000 more a year, now they likely make $15,015 more in Edmonton a year than in Saskatoon.

8% lower wages in Saskatoon than Regina seem like a pretty significant difference, especially since their houses are a lot cheaper than anywhere.  Maybe I'll add Regina to Edmonton in places to consider moving to.

Yeah, I remember that too we were second or something but Alberta wages increase more than everyone else I think even now.  At least that's what was on the news.  Number 2 isn't bad if it keeps going up at 2nd most.

"People here seem to believe whatever's on the news."

I agree with this comment.  People generally follow a herd mentality.  Because there was so much optimism built into the market, any pessimistic message from an authority could cause the spark.  

The reason for me being on this blog is I just want some all knowing person to tell me what house prices are going to do.  

It seems most involved have either agenda's (realtors) or biases based on wishful thinking. (home owners and people who want to be home owners.)

So it's hard to trust.  If just a couple people start getting scared...  that's all it takes.  They lower their prices.  Their neighbors who are selling see that and lower their prices.  Then, the rest of the people with those empty houses decide it's time to bail....  

Unless, unless, migration continues, which is completely possible, given our very population, only a few moving in can make a drastic difference.

Following a few weeks of unseasonably sluggish home sales, the Saskatoon real estate market took an upward