Saskatoon Real Estate Resource Centre Blog

Well, I think this is a more realistic overview of Saskatchewan's current state of affairs. And when they say other Western Provinces, I'm assuming 3.1% for B.C and 3.3% for Alberta? Anyone agree with that? Secondly if Alberta's economy is stronger why are prices on the decline and were on the way up? hmmmm.....

Saskatchewan economy was around the Canadian average growth but there has/is excessive growth in real estate prices, does that make any sense???????????? hmmmmmmm once again.......

And by the way the 3.3% increase is a much much larger "real" number than Sask's because they of course have a much larger economy to begin with. I wonder what the differences in actual dollars really is??

Ooh burn, economic growth lower than all other Western Provinces and barely (0.1%) above average!?  Maybe this will make housing affordable.  

Probably not, even if Stats Canada says our economy is not growing as much as the rest of Western Canada, everyone in Saskatoon will point out all the new stores in Stonebridge by the huge new Walmart and assume we must be booming, I mean it's almost half as big as Ikea (which we don't have).  Global news (which inflames stories to make them exciting regularily) told me so (about the boom).  It must be a Statistics Canada conspiracy, because some guy in Ottawa cares so much about Saskatoon, he's trying to make up that our economy is not growing much, and probably the same guy who made up our high crime and sexual assault rate... He must be born in Winnipeg?

Unfortunately, people elsewhere in the country will say: Wait, pay more to buy a house in a slower economy, with high crime and lower wages?!

And that's the kicker.  Conspiracy theories sound stupid and no one but us believes them.

Also, Manitoba beat us at 3.3% growth (the place next door with the super cheap housing and slightly lower crime) http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/080428/d080428a.htm

Thanks Norm, always interesting stories, didn't see this on the cbc website earlier today, guess you beat them to it.  I wasn't that surprised by still growing slower than Alberta, but behind Manitoba and BC?  I thought BC just had pretty beaches and nice hiking and skiing.  Apparently there's a good economy there too.  Not sure what Manitoba even has to beat us in?  Is that Falcon Beach show that popular?

Also thought this was interesting "The Saskatchewan economy increased 2.8%, rebounding from a drop in 2006."  So where's Saskaboom?  The economy dropped in 2006 (when even Manitoba gained 3.2%)?! And its rebound for 2007 is less than everyone else in Western Canada's normal growth? Seriously read:

http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/080428/d080428a.htm

Apparently, booming potash and oil is enough to make us grow almost as much as the rest of Western Canada!

I'm hearing for sale signs going up in Saskatoon at the moment and I'm currently in Fort McMurray!! :-0

Oh just wait, I should buy right now, because if I don't I will be priced out of the Saskatoon market!! I think I can qualify for a 40 year mortgage!!

It would seem that no matter the economic times, good, bad, boom, bust or just lukewarm, there will be negativity, bitter feelings, and sarcastic blog comments.

Mike, I think the comments are based on everyone here being priced out of a home at home, and now seeing that evidence points out that our economy actually went from crummy (2006) to mediocre (2007) and neither is justification for a 50% price increase in 2007.  I think it's funnier that everyone keeps talking about a boom when apparently other than people getting gouged on house prices, there wasn't one.  

Regardless of fundamentals, there will always be those speculators and boosters calling a boom, and criticizing the skeptics for being negative.  As Jim pointed out I'm sure everyone in Saskatoon will argue with these stats too.

I don' think it takes a radical approach to realize the information in this report.

Private sector economists will always prove themselves to be exactly that: A bunch of rich people trying to pump.

Let's just drop the whole guise that people who are that money obsessed have any interest other than their own.

You only had to look around.  But of course some people just get too offended when they're accused of being so short sighted.

By the way, Manitoba is great and so long as the greed is fended off in time, it will remain great.  You can probably count on that happening in municipalities shortly.

Saskatchewan is now yet another gleaming example of how greed fueled apathy re branded as an economic ideal screws society as a whole.

"our economy actually went from crummy (2006) to mediocre (2007) and neither is justification for a 50% price increase in 2007.  I think it's funnier that everyone keeps talking about a boom when apparently other than people getting gouged on house prices, there wasn't one."

Of course there wasn't one in 2007.  As that famous article said: "it hasn't even begun yet."

I view house prices as a speculative indicator of what is actually going on.  Much like stocks, if we hear that company X is on the verge of creating a breakthrough widget, no on sits around and waits for the widget.  They invest on the news.  They may even sell on the actual event.  

The city of saskatoon website (and I can't find that actual link; I'm looking) says there will be 40,000 migrating here over the next 2 years.

That sounds like it would keep demand high.  

Of course there wasn't a boom in 2007?  Dude, Do you ever watch the news?  Or talk to people here?  All I've heard about for the past 2 years is the boom and apparently it was made up.  I completely agree with other guys above, people in Saskatoon just can't face they are in last place in the West.  People here are always telling me how the population is like 250,000 or 300,000.  Stats Can, via the bench website, says the population in 2006 was 202,000 up from 196,000 in 2001.  Do you really think we're going to add 40,000 more people in 2 years?

Nope, 400 people maybe. Who's going to move to Saskatoon instead of Alberta, where you definitely make more money (base), always get offered overtime (hardly ever get offered overtime in Sask)and houses are about par? I don't believe that to many people will be immigrating and now people (i.e university graduates) will begin leaving again, just when wages were on the increase, but now they have not increased enough. And yes stocks are speculative, but lately how many people have been losing their shirts to stocks and I see the problem happening in Saskatoon to people that have bought real estate lately.

I have no idea.  That's just what a mortgage person told me at a bank.

But, we're around 233,000 now I believe, up from your 202,000 (2006) quote.  So that's 30,000 in a couple of years.  So could we go up 40,000 in 2 more years?  (I have no idea if that number is in any way accurate.)  If there's demand, if there's jobs.  Obviously, there wasn't in 2007, but I don't remember anyone saying there would be.  "The boom hasn't even started yet" are the words I kept hearing.  Yes, the housing boom definitely was in effect.  But why?  Why did walmart build it's biggest store in the west in Saskatoon?  Does it do any kind of research on this stuff?

Question:  If you somehow knew the demand for gold is going to go up in 2 years, would you buy it today or wait 2 years?

I found this interesting.

http://www.gdi-solutions.com/fdi/2007future.htm#winners

They list Saskatoon #1 of Top 5 'Best Economic Potential' 'Cities of the Future' of small cities in North America.

And it's ranked #10 in the overall Top 10 of all categories.  

All 108 nominees were scored by an independent panel on over 60 facts about their areas for the following 7 selection factors:

   * Best economic potential

   * Most cost effective

   * Best human resources

   * Best quality of life

   * Best infrastructure

   * Most business friendly

   * Best FDI promotion

This being said, I still think in the short term, there may be a large drop in house prices.

David, good to see you're basing your opinion on what the person telling you to get a mortage told you...

So the City of Saskatoon states its population to 208,300 (estimated as of Dec 31, 2007 a couple months ago), Statistics Canada, May 2006 2006 said 202,340 ("most recent census was on May 16, 2006").  That is almost 6,000 in over a year and a half including the boom of 2007, so about 4,000 per year (albeit not from the same source, as Statistics Canada is kind of the gold standard but we have to wait till 2011 to find out the actual pop is 212,000 by then or something).  So no 40,000 ...  And everyone said we were in a boom in 2007.  Seriously, a year ago, anyone you asked knew about the "boom" at the time.  Sure we heard more was to come, but everyone said last year was a boom, they even nick named Saskaboom a couple years ago.  Apparently followed up by a loss of 0.4% one year and a gain of 2.8% the next year.

And Walmart?  You're basing your potential boom on Walmart building a big store.  Come on.  There is a lot of space out there.  It's a new store, they're always getting bigger.  Rumour has it Humboldt pop. 5,000 ish is getting a new Walmart.  I'm sure the next new one on the outskirts of Calgary or Winnipeg or where ever will be bigger.

We've got Stats Canada, and even the City of Saskatoon, showing that your numbers are way out of whack, and the guy who gave you a mortage saying 40,000 new people(ten times the 4,000 over the last year, 7X 6,000 over year and a half) will move here in the next 2 years!?  Think he was maybe a bit biased?  Did the guy who sold you your car (e.g. Ford Taurus) tell you it was a luxury sedan and would become the coolest car by next year?  Even the Hyundai guy will tell you that!

http://www.city.saskatoon.sk.ca/org/quick_facts/index.asp

http://www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/data/popdwell/Table.cfm?T=301&S=3&O=D

http://www12.statcan.ca/english/census/index.cfm

David,  

April 23, 2007 fDi press release on your study

http://www.gdi-solutions.com/fdi/2007future.htm#winners

So if prices have went up 50% in the last year, think that changes your cost effectiveness?

wow you guys are right!It must have been a few key private sector economists and the media that caused all the real estate is saskatchewan to skyrocket.wow people are really going to feel stupid for buying a house a year from now.....

Back to reality people,people want to live in a smaller city like saskatoon.look at all the resources saskatchewan has oil,potash,uranium,biofuels.Saskatchewan is well suited for a boom thats why we re in the situation we are.Prices will go down abit but don t fool yourself into thinking this is a false boom caused by the media and investers.

but what do I know..time will tell.

"Of course there wasn't a boom in 2007?  Dude, Do you ever watch the news?  Or talk to people here?  All I've heard about for the past 2 years is the boom and apparently it was made up."--dan

I think perhaps you've been talking to the wrong people.

That Globe and Mail of april 12 quoted Mr. Isaac, an energy billionaire who said:

"But the boom, Mr. Isaac said, hasn't even really started. "People are talking about it in the present tense - but it's not even here yet," Mr. Isaac said. "The boom is still coming."

I don't know why people were talking about the economic boom as if it was happening last year.  There was a real estate boom which may well be a bubble, but the economic boom, I don't think anyone should have been saying it arrived in 2007.  It is still coming.

When people kept saying Saskatachewn is the new Alberta, maybe what they fail to see is that it took alberta decades to become alberta.

"David, good to see you're basing your opinion on what the person telling you to get a mortage told you..."

I bought a year ago.  I was just getting a home equity loan.  So they weren't selling me anything.

Jim, I am looking at an rbc economic indatator chart of "prairie migration" showing Saskatchewan, manitoba and alberta.  It indicates from 2005 to mid 2007 Saskatchewan has had about 28,000 migrate into our province, and then, from mid 2007 to 2008, about 8000 left.

Similarly, from mid 2006 to mid 2007, alberta had about 30,000 people leave.  

I'll find the link.

So to say I was talking to the wrong people, that's why every media outlet has been leading off with stories of Saskaboom for the last couple of years.  And Saskatoon may some day become the new Alberta, but its house prices took a year to go from no where to Alberta level...

And CW, there are solid fundamentals underlying our economy, but as of yet, hasn't resulted in actual improvement in the economy, other than everyone's house getting valuable all of a sudden.

http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/provfcst.pdf

page 3 of this link.

As well, the "city of saskatoon population projection 2006-2011" was probably conducted in maybe 2005.  Back then, no one forsaw what would happen.

They write: "The total population for Saskatoon is 222,717 for 2006, and 236,842 for 2011."

And yes, had things stayed the same, those numbers may have been correct.

http://www.city.saskatoon.sk.ca/org/city_planning/resources/population/population_2006-2011.pdf

David, now you're just dropping random numbers.  You said Saskatoon had 230,000 up from 202,000.  It's more likely 208,000, gain of 6,000 not 30,000 so kind of off.  Then you're saying Saskatoon gaining 40,000 in the next two years.  A big difference from 8,000 leaving province wide after a gain of 28,000 the 2 years before (If I understand your numbers/dates).  And province wide numbers are different than Saskatoon numbers.

And some one at a local bank is still a peddling loans to locals.  Maybe the same guy who feeds new home buyers the Saskatoon is going to go up so you better buy now line.

All the pro boom people are just listing resources.

And potential.  That potential has always existed.

The numbers still say Saskatoon, population 208,000 ish according to the city itself is not in boom mode.  And all we've heard about for the past couple years now is how we're in the middle of a boom.  Stats Canada differs, they put us at the bottom of the heap in the western part of the country.

The City of Saskatoon's population was not 222,000 in 2006, that's the Stats Canada year.  It was 202,000.

http://www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/data/popdwell/Table.cfm?T=301&S=3&O=D

And the current (ie right now) City of Saskatoon website "Saskatoon is Saskatchewan’s largest city with an estimated population of 208,300 and growing (as of December 31, 2007)."  Using different methods of counting does not change the fact that using census and the city's data itself, the percentage change is not and will not be 40,000.  Yes, going from a low ball method to a high ball estimate of greater Saskatoon, including Warman, and Dundurn etc... I'm sure you could get the value up, but using consistent methods, there is no evidence to support a gain anywhere near 40,000.

http://www.city.saskatoon.sk.ca/org/quick_facts/index.asp

Thanks though, for your document dated Oct. 2, 2002.  Proving that people have been overstating Saskatoon's population for at least the last 6 years.  Although, if you want to argue Stats Canada' actual count based on a 6 year old prediction (contradicted even by the City of Saskatoon's own website) be my guest.  And sending a 24 page pdf from 6 years ago that doesn't like the census methods to argue a one point number something that is readily available on Stats Can and Saskatoon's websites and still only estimate 12,000 over 5 years = Priceless.

Great news! I hope we see more and more news like this showing that the Sask-a-boom is little more than an excuse to jack up the housing prices!

As Doug Elliott, the actual expert in Norm's post, points out “We’re doing fairly well, but we’re not this powerhouse that everybody seems to think we are.”  Based on actual data.  Sounds like all of us, media included, have over estimated the strength of the local economy.   Enough said.

Dave and C White, All the experts from private firms were making "predictions" and these are actual end of year numbers.  So I'd go with these.  Regardless of potential, I would say that the economy, like wages in Saskatchewan have not yet arrived.  Maybe it's time that we all stopped heralding this boom, moved elsewhere where each year there growth is greater and they are starting from higher, made more money and came back when wages, high level jobs and the economy catch up to everyone's ego.

Just because it was a while ago here's original link

http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/080428/d080428a.htm

Star Phoenix from a month ago:

"City loses jobs in Feb.-March

The StarPhoenix

Published: Saturday, April 05, 2008

Saskatoon job growth in the first quarter of the year appears to be going in the wrong direction, with 100 net jobs lost between February and March"

So losing jobs and economic/GDP growth trailing rest of Western Canada ... why are house prices up again?  What are all these new people doing if it's not working?

Norm, Maybe year over year Saskatchewan saw job growth, but month over month, Saskatoon lost 100 jobs maybe the rest of the province did better, probably within margin of error, but given the city is apparently booming this suggests either it's starting to cool down and not so many people are actually moving to Saskatoon, if so, you'd expect continual monthly increases in job growth, I would argue that like you say, "barely passing the class with 58% ... disappointing".

So when do we get the link to the Star Phoenix article that brought up the whole Statistics Canada thing?  Would be interesting to see how they spin that, like everyone above, trying to say that they hadn't said the boom was yet here, or trying to put a big spin on a pretty average showing.

Not saying that 100 down is a real decline in jobs, likely margin of error, but again, stable in spite of spiking prices and this huge "boom" doesn't mean much either.  And Feb - March is at the end of your provincial increase, but this decline is for Saskatoon, not for the entire province, although maybe means the gains are done, irregular, or maybe Saskatchewan doesn't mean just Saskatoon...  And really, it is Saskatoon with the increases in real estate prices that should be backed up by steady and large gains in employment month after month.

Not sure how the provincial economy, underperforming the rest of western Canada, at only 2.8% growth barely above national average of 2.7% growth isn't front page material.  It completely flies in the face of all the other top stories that usually just confirm what the previous one said.  And it throws huge questions at the fundamentals of this boom.  I'm sure people would buy a Star Phoenix, just for the "Wow" factor that we got beat by Manitoba, and everyone else on the block.

Maybe Saskatoon's best shot will be the ability to draw a wave of ex pats back every so often creating a boom in house buying.

I agree with Norm that this must be somewhat dissappointing. But for people to rally around this report and say "Told you so" is probably premature. For one thing there may be a problem attracting people from places like Alberta to work. That would hamper companies when planning expansions.

Maybe there will be more development as workers from Eastern Canada move to escape unemployment in the manufacturing sector there.

Some things a boom brings with it aren't so great. It's too bad housing went up so much so fast but I'm sure there will be growth there.

Norm,

Was that noise the Fat Lady tuning up??  

Better get my suit pressed.  I'll need it for the event in Moose Jaw and no doubt one here.

BTW Norm we realtors are never negative. But we do tell it like it is.  Sometimes it "ain't perdy". Furthermore,  I don't ever remember holding the keys that contol the market or economy.

Your BC Humble-Peddler.

With a slow economy, low wages here and housing that is as expensive as Alberta and more than most, drawing waves of ex pats back or waves of Newfies here may be difficult.  Newfoundland leading the country in GDP growth in 2007 does not help either.  

The only reason house prices wouldn't dip on news like this, is the main stream media seems to be ignoring this, every positive story is front page (on predictions) and a substantial negative one actually based on annual data, apparently isn't newsworthy.  

Sorry to bring up the population issue again...

Wikipedia states Saskatoon's city population is 202,340

(2006) and a metro population of 233,923.  But no reference on where the metro number came from.

david,

My hope is for SK not to become AB!!!  AB as a province doesn't have any modesty.  I'm not saying I want SK's economy to suffer and people to lose their jobs, I just want a nice, stable, slow-paced economy... sustainable.

Anyway, I'm happy to hear our GDP numbers are well under predicted forecasts, but still performing fine.  Any sort of true "boom" (aside from real estate) hasn't happened, and it may not happen any time soon.  Maybe we will moderate afterall.  :')

Then you want SK to become like Manitoba? :)

If you ask me, if all provinces and their respective benefits were modeled after Manitoba (or a former Saskatchewan), Canada would be a better place.

The irony is, for the longest time, Manitoba used Saskatchewan as a model for ideals.

I don't see the appeal in trying to be more like Alberta - seems about as effective saying you want to be in hospital.  Who wants that?!

I checked the link David provided:

http://www.city.saskatoon.sk.ca/org/city_planning/resources/population/population_2006-2011.pdf

On the cover it says Oct 02, 2002... Apparently things didn't go as they predicted. So is the economy. Though I do hope saskaboom is true, in a healthy way.

2.8% is slow, when it's barely half the 4.8% predicted!  And Sask has AGAIN (also in 2006) the western province's slowest economic growth in 2007!

So all you boosters of the real estate price increases in Saskatoon, how do you validate an increase in real estate in Saskatoon of 50% or greater over the last year and a half? Or is the same old thing (that has actually been said many times in the past) "we're bound to boom, look at all the resources we have"?

Does anyone have a long term variance analysis on Saskatchewan’s GDP? Plus or minus 2 billion dollars would significantly impact this percentage. What was impact did the Pulp mill have when it shut down in 2006. What will be the impact of Potash revenues in 2008? This would be a more interesting than a percentage.

While it is nice to see the weekly stats, Norm’s significant sales can sometimes offer more insight.

I think this article on scarcity describes last years housing market in Saskatoon: http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/investing/jimjubak/article.aspx?cp-documentid=7048609

I've reviewed the Statscan 2005 data that came out today. At least average earnings increased in Saskatchewan between 2000-2005. In BC, earnings sank a surprising 11% yet real estate prices went berserk here during that time!

i wouldn t call myself a booster of the recent price increases,i just get a kick that some people get lost in all the calculations,number crunching and speculations that they forget he most obvious facts...supply and demand,the question is,is it gonna do a 180,or are people still moving to saskatoon?cause as long as people keep moving here prices will not be going down anytime soon.

Wesco,

isn t the reason Alberta is the economic powerhouse of Canada due to their resources?

you don t think that the fact that our prov goverment is business friendly to the resource sector and the rising cost of oil,potash.this alone in my eyes is the number 1 reason why realestate prices have climbed...Whats gonna happen when they actually start pulling oil out of the tarsands and the bakken oil reserves,or the price of potash triples?

tell you one thing you can expect that 2.8 to rise

Wesco,

whether it is 2.8% or 12.8% GDP growth, GDP growth does not justify our increases we have seen.  Our increases happened because of a number of things, justifiable or not, depends on who you talk to.

I am a bit surprised at the stats can numbers, I do know that there have been industries that have laid off people because of our high dollar. To have 2.8% growth is ok but not the boom everybody has been talking about.  It will be interesting to see what GDP growth is for Sask in 2008.

Charles, if you check the link our GDP growth for the past half dozen years sucks.  Consistently.  These are not weekly stats, but annual stats the show actual increases (and a decrease in 2006) in GDP far less than what predictions were.  We were all about trusting predictions, but not actual results?  Just because the results aren't as impressive?  There is an annual trend of no to small GDP growth, except for the occassional rebound (from loss) year.

Check out the table 3/4 way down page for annual since 2001.  And despite mill closure, PA real estate has still went up, rumour has it $250 on average.  How is that justified?  In a small place that just lost a huge employer?

http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/080428/d080428a.htm

And C White, we've had resources all along, and the occassional business friendly government, and we've been consistently beat for the past 100 years by Alberta in terms of economic growth.

And for all those who are above saying the boom has started yet, I'm sure a couple days ago you were thought we were mid boom.  Even on the news yesterday, they were talking about the "boom" and John Gormley this AM on the radio was talking about the "boom".  Yes, we're all happy to be here (were 3 years ago, but sure now it's boom happiness) but our economy, since 2001 has yet to approach Alberta, and for BOTH 2006 and 2007, has been outperformed by Manitoba.  2007's 2.8% growth can't be anything but a disappointment, when we heard predictions of 4 to 4.8%.  Ie.  2.8/(4) to 2.8/(4.8) best case scenario, we didn't even achieve 75% of predicted growth, worst case scenario we barely achieved half!

To being Western Canada's slowest growing economy, for the second year in a row.

I would not be the least bit surprised if Real Estate agents spin this report as a good thing. I can almost hear them telling people "Look, the price of housing went up almost 60% the last year and that was with our economy not firing on all cylinders. Once the boom takes off, however, you are going to see gains that that make this previous increases seem like peanuts! Buy now or forever wait by the sidelines!! Saskatchewan IS the place to be!!!"

C White,

You are not to well informed on Saskatchewan oil resources. I agree with on the Bakken oil reserves however i couldn't disagree with you more on Saskatchewan tar sands. Contrary to popular belief they are not the same as the oil sands that I currently work in Fort McMurray, they are substantially different. First off they are much further buried than the oil sands here and secondly, the most crucial part, they are trapped in shales and because of these factors they are not economically feasible to mine. For the depth the would be able to use SAGD, but SAGD is not as efficient are what the big producers do in Fort McMurray, which is open pit mining. Secondly to extract the oil trapped in shales it will cost more than the CURRENT selling price of a barrel of oil. Lastly the Bakken oil reserves will not create the type of work that Fort McMurry does because they will not have to build the massive upgraders there like they do here. What they will do is pump it out of the ground and send it via pipelines to the refineries in Alberta or the United States, so therefore we will not be building massive refineries in Saskatchewan either. And without construction, there are no construction workers and without construction workers there is no boom, sorry to break it to you. :-0

To summarize the argument to date.  

Actual Provincial Sask economy underperforms expectations, slowest in Western Canada in 06 and 07, some say reaching 50 to 75% of predicted levels, definitely was less economic growth than even the lowest predictions.

Saskatoon Population definitely not growing by 40,000, may be increasing, maybe not much.  Population according to the City itself is 208,000 on its website at this moment.  

Job growth minimal lately, lots a year ago, percentage wise, province wide.  Some think boom has been blown out of proportion, others deny any one had announced its arrival; yet.  Most think housing price increases unjustified given lack of economic growth/prices based on inaccurate predictions.  

Others think potential justifies it all, and that Joe Blow didn't base his over bid at all on current economy or the news telling him it was cool, but on the potential, that some day, Saskatchewan would have a good economy and some day our wages would be near Alberta, since while our house prices are quickly surpassing various Alberta cities, our average income in Saskatchewan's a lot less.

Also, Saskatoon and Regina both have the highest levels of violent crime in Canada, some deal with it, some don't, some don't care.

Sound about right so far?

And lastly C White, Alberta is not powerhouse directly by their resources, because they give it away for almost nothing. They have the worst royalty rates out of any big oil producer in the world, their not even close. (The worst part is Klein sold them out to the Americans for the next twenty years). Alberta is a powerhouse because of construction and only because of construction. Nobody here cares about the royalty cash, because it is minor. What they do talk about and gloat about is the construction, somewhere in the neighbourhood of 100 billion (conservative estimate) over the next ten years. What does Saskatchewan have? Maybe 10% of that scheduled over the same period? I don't even think Saskatchewan looks ten years ahead in terms of construction actually.

I hear another forsale sign going up!!! :-)

Alex,

Exactly, except for those bizzare (and might I add slightly greedy) wedding "socials" you guys have.  :'P

C. white,

I think the question is how many people are now moving OUT of the province VS moving into the province?  I still believe there are less people coming in than last year, and add to that people moving out because of lost opportunity.  Until I see stats no one can convince me otherwise that our influx is equal to last year.  Also, how many more homes will be listed this spring/summer?  There's already approximately 3X as much inventory as this time last year!

no need to apologize wesco,lol.boom or no boom does nt matter much to me.im just going along for the ride like everyone else

your obviously more informed than I about oilsands exploration and recovery.Perhaps I should have said that Alberta is a economic power house indirectly due to their oil industry,i think we can agree if there was no oil in Alberta there would be limited construction going on.I think if the athabasca oilsands were the lost cause you say they are then we probabably wouldnt be seeing articles like this one.

www.gov.sk.ca/news?newsId=0feaac0b-1ee6-4aab-a20e-0ebf9724be9f

then again never trust a politician.

on a different note, what if the majority of the new construction in the city is being taken up by residents of saskatoon.wouldn t that mean by this summer or fall there could be large amount of older homes flooding the market.if we re not having the influx of people that we think we are.That would definatly cause a price drop.Whats your opinion on this Norm,what do you see happening as an agent?

ahh nothing like a manitoba social,i laughed the first time I heard the term cabaret.

i agree with you Heather inventory is gonna get high,question is how much are the prices going to drop?

Heather,

All of my friends who moved back have now left and I don't think they'll be coming back again no matter how big of a boom we have here. Hopefully they tell people considering the move here not to believe the hype and to wait and see what happens before commiting themselves to a move. Like I said in an earlier post, the last two individuals to leave, a legal assistant and a skilled tradesman, found affordability to be much better in Calgary than here in Saskatoon. In other news, prices for one bedroom apartment just went up another $250 to $1200 a month in our building, which means that come next month when my three month period is up I'll be looking for new accomodations. Can we please just set the time machine back to pre-boom Saskatoon, please?

Just checked out our rental companies website, and prices for 1 bedroom suites in Saskatoon are now more expensive than all their 1 bedroom units in their numerous properties in Calgary and Edmonton. In fact, in Edmonton you can get a three bedroom unit for less money than a one bedroom unit in Saskatoon. Must be because of our higher wages here in Sasktoon!

Check it out here:

www.realstar.ca

Wesco,

You are correct that the royalty revenues are relatively low in Alberta but they still contribute substantially to the provincial coffers.  The numbers I have seen are for $10 Billion per year from royalty revenue in Alberta.  Not exactly giving it away.  Over 10 years, that equals out to your 100 billion construction spending and is actually far more substantial as this is pure income for the province as opposed to construction where only a fraction of the value is retrieved.

So Alberta IS a powerhouse directly by their resources.  The province boomed in the 70's when oil was high and bust in the 80's.  They are booming again with the massive increase in oil prices and from what I understand of it, very little else.  Even your noted construction spending is DIRECTLY tied to the increasing costs of energy.  

I left Saskabush two days ago (not permanently, just for the summer) and am now sitting on the third floor of the Vancouver Public Library, looking down on the patrons walking in and out of the concourse, watching cranes swing  buckets and guys wrestle with concrete forms on the two condo construction sites that I can see through the windows.  I can hear conversations in three languages (Chinese -- Mandarin, it's soft not hard -- Korean, Russian?) at the neighboring tables. I had lunch at a Korean supermarket (spicy beef bowl & kimchee) and spent more money on books and clothes walking in here this morning than I have in the past month in Saskatoon.

And this is a little city, by global standards but in terms of diversity, prosperity & wealth, it's light years ahead of Saskatoon.  Yep, Nick, BC has more than skiing and pretty beaches: it's a pretty lively economy, even if all the lumber mills and pulp and paper mills are closing down because of the US housing market tanking.  And if you want to talk about real estate speculation -- it's got Saskabush beat, because it's absolutely batshit insane. :)

So yes, I'm not surprised that the Boom! is a little bit more like a Thud!

And maybe when I come back in the fall prices will be a touch more human.

I had the same reaction to Jason's 1 BR price, Norm -- that's more expensive than downtown Toronto!

Something,

Yes 10 billion per year is a substantial number, however over a population of 3 million that only works out to $333 per person in the province per year, hardly anything to get excited about considering the amount of revenue that oil companies are making. (Shell 9 billion last quarter). The 100 billion dollar estimate is a low ball estimate also that is based on new construction only, if you through in the shut downs over that period that number will easily double maybe even triples. (Then there is all people required to operate and maintain these massive plants) Just Suncor alone has 40 billion dollars scheduled for new construction over the next 5-7 years. The thing is, when you're planning that much construction its all the support services that are required that really stimulate your economy, engineering firms, restaurants, etc... Construction to me is a sign of a boom and I just don't see anything in Saskatchewan that compares to these types of projects.

C White,

I read that article, call me a pessimist, but when Wall says "...how much of  this economically reconverable" I think he's eluding to my previous statements without actually pointing out the road blocks of Saskatchewan oil sands

hey westco,

isn t that 3333.33 dollars per person?that makes alittle bit of difference

"are people still moving to saskatoon?cause as long as people keep moving here prices will not be going down anytime soon."

This is the big question.

What are reasons for and against it.

I believe how this all started was with the people in power getting scared and saying we need to do something, so they had this advertising campaign and it worked to pull some people here and started a speculative play on Saskatchewan real estate.  Around the same time, we had all this news about diamonds, oil, potash etc, which seemed to keep expectations high.  

But with higher housing prices, it seems there's less insentive for people to stay.  

Unless, there really is some sort of magical demand for work.  Is there?

Anyway, my question was:

What are the reasons for and against people moving here or leaving here?  And, will all that talk about diamond mines opening up in the next couple years or the oil or whatever have any actual effect on migration?

"...Whats gonna happen when they actually start pulling oil out of the tarsands and the bakken oil reserves,or the price of potash triples?

tell you one thing you can expect that 2.8 to rise"

This was the point I was making before.  As Mr. Isaac pointed out in that globe and mail article, the boom hasn't even begun yet.  All this talk and hype were about the diamonds of the future and the oil of the future.  These things don't happen instantly.  No one said they would.

What did happen instantly was some people got scared of missing out of this future boom.  So they hopped on board.  This causes higher prices which fuels the fear which fuels buying and higher prices.  

Whenever there is extremely good news or extremely bad news, the market tends to overreact.  It may well have overreacted on the upside and there may well be a correcting.  

But my question is:  Does anyone have any actual data on the effect any of these companies finding these resources will have on migration?

Jason -- I particularly like that the company lists 1050-1200 one bedrooms as 'budget apartments' :)

"And for all those who are above saying the boom has started yet, I'm sure a couple days ago you were thought we were mid boom."

Not me.  I think we're a 3-5 years away from any great impact on our economy.

I think most on here confuse the real estate market and think that this is Saskatchewan's economic boom.   It is a real estate boom and probably a bubble.  

Take diamonds for example.  An RBC report called "The economic impact of diamond mining in Canada" (june 2006) says:

"As two major mines begin production, Saskatchewan could gain a sizeable 1% lift to its economy in each of 2009 and 2011 and over the next 25 years royalties could average $130 million annually for the provianical government..."

It goes on to forecast 1% in 2009 (star diamond) and 1% in 2011 (fort a la corne) and once both are in production, the "incremental GDP impact will decline from a peak of 2.3% in 2013 down to about.5% by 2032."

So that's just a forecast, and it's just diamonds, but it's in the FUTURE.

Yet, everyone acted as though the discovery in diamonds in Saskatchewan was supposed to instanteously  have an effect.  How?

C white, your right and that does make a difference, forgot to carry the 0 on the ten billion, my bad.

"Surprisingly, demand continues to be pretty strong."--norm.

My question is "why" and who are these people that continue to buy and where are they coming from?

"Yes 10 billion per year is a substantial number, however over a population of 3 million that only works out to $333 per person in the province per year, hardly anything to get excited about"

But would $3,333/person be something to get excited about?

So I didn't see this GDP report, but I did see the Saskatoon census numbers on income.  Very interesting.  Median household (not individual) income in Saskatoon is $65,839 as of 2005.  This is an increase of a little over 20% in five years.

Saskatchewan workers earn the third least in all of Canada (ahead of only Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick) as of the 2005 numbers.  Things have definitely improved since then, but it's a long climb from 7th place in the country...

http://www.canada.com/saskatoonstarphoenix/story.html?id=66c61861-d1ad-4abb-9fda-0ac8238f4107&k=19194

All I hear about here is in 2009 this or in 2011 that.  Right now I am hearing about the economic boom on the radio and television constantly too.  I don't think any one qualifies it with the boom hasn't started.

I think I read in one of the posts that people have recently left Saskatchewan again so it is again losing residents.  Just based on people I know, probably half of my friends have moved out of home, often with their parents backing, to buy a slum condo or house.  None of them actually moved here.  Now some of them are talking about selling their houses and using the proceeds to move some where better.

I would agree.  Vancouver is an